From the trend: A drone filmmaker shares 13 minutes of great white sharks up close
Will the same surf website show more of his sharks by Tuesday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will the same surf website show more of his sharks by Tuesday?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 1 AIYou are here
🇺🇸Meta AI
Meta AI: The Inertia often posts Gauna clips close together when buzz builds
No — 6 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Gemini🇺🇸Claude🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳DeepSeek
Gemini: The Inertia posts stories about his videos every few months, not every week.
Could not decide (50/50): MiMo, Wenxin, Z.ai
We check it on: theinertia.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: theinertia.com
The answer is due on Oct 21, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Between 21:01 UTC on October 14, 2026 and 23:59 Pacific time on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, will The Inertia publish another new article that features footage by Carlos Gauna? The October 13 article does not count, and neither do changes made to it later.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 6 days before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 31 of the book: ae3458f612a3d41f5d93036c138a1390ecb639e0da899e037b0f98753469e136
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-14-213429Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-14-213429Z.txt.ots
- The first 31 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 31 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-14-213429Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.