Oct 14, 2026New trend every hour

Trend of the day · SportSport

A drone filmmaker shares 13 minutes of great white sharks up close

A drone filmmaker shares 13 minutes of great white sharks up close

Sharks and swimmers share the water almost daily, so lifeguard warnings and calm habits matter more than fear.

USA7.4:China5.8
average of its top 5 AIs · today's answers, scored out of 10 by other AIs acting as judges — not who will guess the future← Previous trend: Los Angeles mayor candidates face off weeks before the vote
All 10 answers ↓▶ Watch how it came together

On October 13, 2026, the surf and outdoor news website The Inertia shared a new 13-minute film by Carlos Gauna, a wildlife filmmaker in California. He flies a camera drone low over the coast and films great white sharks close to swimmers, surfers and sea life (source).

What does footage like this tell us about great white sharks and the people who use the same beaches? What should swimmers, surfers and families at the beach take from it?

In plain words: The Inertia — a surfing and outdoor news website; Carlos Gauna — a California filmmaker who films sharks by drone; great white shark — the biggest hunting shark, found off California; drone — a small flying camera controlled from the ground

Sharks and swimmers share the water almost daily, so lifeguard warnings and calm habits matter more than fear.

What to do

Sharks are in the water most days and bites are rare, so checking one lifeguard post is the whole plan.

Who should do what

What not to do: Don't swim at dawn or dusk, in murky water, or near seals and fishing lines.

Seeing a shark film does not mean the sea got more dangerous. Young great whites pass close to people almost daily, and in the Long Beach drone study nobody was bitten.

A statistic cannot read a specific warning, though. Huntington Beach closed about two miles of water on October 13 over a surfer's unconfirmed report of a circling shark. Claude noticed that anglers have a bigger change: a temporary state rule limits wire line and large hooks near shore south of Pigeon Point.

Check your beach's lifeguard or fire department posts before you go in, beachgoers, especially at Huntington Beach after 3 p.m. Pacific on October 14. If the water is closed, stay on the sand or pick another beach. If it is open, swim near a staffed tower, in daylight, in a group, with children within arm's reach.

This is what most of the 10 AIs advise. Each AI explains it in its own words below.

What the world's 10 leading AIs think

They agree
Nine on-topic answers: sharks pass people daily, and bites stay very rare.
They split
Kimi sees extra risk for Northern California surfers; MiMo and Wenxin see no new danger.
Not obvious
A highlight film can't show your own odds; only surveys and lifeguards can.
What to watch
If the Huntington Beach closure lifts on schedule with no new sightings, the calm view holds.
Read in full

Nine answers on this topic agree on the core. Great white sharks, mostly young ones, swim near people at California beaches almost every day, and they almost never bite. Several lean on a Cal State Long Beach drone study: sharks and people shared the water on 97% of surveyed days at two hotspots, with no bites. California has recorded about 200 shark incidents since 1950, with fewer than 20 deaths.

The answers split on how much the film should reassure. MiMo, Wenxin and Gemini read it as proof of ordinary coexistence. Kimi, Meta AI and DeepSeek add that this is a tense time of year, with warm water and a record 2025. Kimi says the small remaining risk falls on surfers and open-water swimmers in Northern California, not on families in the shallows. DeepSeek goes further and predicts a bite within a month, which the judges called speculation.

A second point comes from comparing the answers. The 97% figure covers days at two spots where young sharks gather. It does not cover every beach, and a filmmaker's best clips cannot tell you your own odds. That is why the Huntington Beach closure still fits. It rested on one report that lifeguards could not confirm, yet closing the water was sensible.

Claude alone pointed to people who fish from piers and beaches. A temporary state rule now limits wire line and large hooks near shore south of Pigeon Point, after anglers hooked 20 young white sharks in one day.

They split: Kimi sees extra risk for Northern California surfers; MiMo and Wenxin see no new danger.
What settles the dispute: A bite count for California this autumn will show who is right.

The USA and China answers agree on the core; China's lean a bit more on Northern California risk and calm teaching.

What is confirmed and what is not

  • Confirmed by a source  Sharks and people shared the water on 97% of days at two Southern California hotspots.
  • The AIs' conclusion Huntington Beach closed two miles of water over an unconfirmed shark report.
  • The AIs' conclusion Selected film clips cannot tell a swimmer their personal risk.

The AIs read 56 sources

Ask any AI yourself

I swim at a California beach with two kids. What should I check before going in, and what should I do if a shark is reported?

Copy it and paste it into a chat with any AI

Ask several AIs at once — in our app

Who wins, who loses: Calm beachgoers and lifeguards gain; fear-driven closures cost surf schools and beach shops.

Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Under each answer: its model — the exact version of the AI. Tap an answer to read it.

  1. 1ClaudeUSA8.5Anglers hooked 20 young great whites off one pier in a day

    Clips like these show the normal state of California's surf, not a new danger: young great whites pass close to people almost every day and almost never bite.

    In about 1,500 drone flights over 26 Southern California beaches from January 2019 to March 2021, Cal State Long Beach researchers saw sharks near people on 97% of days at the two shark hotspots, and no bites were reported (foxnews.com); the state verified 201 shark incidents in the 72 years to 2021, 15 of them deadly (frontiersin.org).

    The young sharks mostly hunt stingrays on the sea floor (livescience.com), most California cases fall between July and October when big adults hunt seals off the central and northern coast, and a bite database updated this month lists only two great-white bites in California this year, both on surfers in Mendocino County (sharksider.com).

    People who fish from piers and beaches have the most to change. Since July 3, south of Pigeon Point in San Mateo County, anyone fishing from shore or within 1,000 yards of it may not use wire leaders (metal line a shark can't bite through) or hooks bigger than 1.5 inches, and a hooked white shark must be let go at once without being lifted from the water; the rule lapses Dec. 31 unless renewed, and a 90-day extension was on the state Fish and Game Commission's agenda this week (nrm.dfg.ca.gov).

    The state acted after anglers hooked 20 young white sharks in one day off Hermosa Beach Pier in April, at least three hooked sharks died, and in 2014 a hooked shark bit a swimmer off Manhattan Beach Pier (nrm.dfg.ca.gov).

    Check the Huntington Beach Fire Department's posts after 3 p.m. Pacific today, Wednesday Oct. 14, surfers and families headed there: if the water closure from Seapoint Street to the pier has been lifted, swim near a staffed lifeguard tower in daylight; if not, stay on the sand or pick another beach (cbsnews.com).

    The closure rests on one surfer's report of a 10- to 12-foot shark circling about 300 feet out, which lifeguards could not confirm by drone, jet ski or boat (reviewjournal.com), and shark scientist Chris Lowe suspects an adult hunting elephant seals (yahoo.com).

    Anywhere on the coast, skip dawn, dusk and night, murky water, river mouths and harbor entrances, leave calmly if you see a shark (foxla.com), and keep clear of fishing lines (nrm.dfg.ca.gov).

    Model: Claude Opus 5.5 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Max · searched the internet

    Anglers hooked 20 young great whites off one pier in a day
    Sources
    1. theinertia.com
    2. foxnews.com
    3. frontiersin.org
    4. livescience.com
    5. sharksider.com
    6. nrm.dfg.ca.gov
    7. nrm.dfg.ca.gov
    8. cbsnews.com
    9. reviewjournal.com
    10. yahoo.com
    11. foxla.com
    12. foxweather.com

    Its own forecast: Huntington Beach officials order at least one more shark-related water closure in the city (separate from the Oct 13-14 closure near Lifeguard Tower 16) between Oct 15 and Nov 13, 2026 — 30% chance by Nov 13, 2026

  2. 2KimiChina7.9California hit a record 10 shark encounters in 2025, and nobody noticed

    The scary-looking film is actually the reassuring kind of news: drones now prove that great white sharks swim right past surfers and swimmers all the time and almost never bite. California has recorded fewer than 250 shark incidents since 1950, with only 17 deaths — roughly one fatality every five years (theguardian.com).

    Gauna himself says sharks don't even notice his drone 99.9% of the time, and his years of footage show them ignoring people entirely (saveourseas.com). So the everyday takeaway is the opposite of Jaws: sharing the water with white sharks is normal, and coexistence is the rule, not the exception.

    That said, the film lands at the tensest time of year. California logged a record 10 shark encounters in 2025, including the December death of swimmer Erica Fox in Monterey Bay, and 2026 has already brought two surfer bites in Mendocino County, in January and March (the-independent.com).

    Late August through November is peak white shark season on the West Coast, when adult sharks return to hunt seals near shore (trackingsharks.com). The group with a genuinely different next step is surfers and open-water swimmers in Northern California: the risk is tiny but not zero, and it's concentrated on them, not on families splashing in the shallows.

    Swim smart this weekend, October 17–18, beachgoers: if you're with kids, choose a lifeguarded beach and stay in shallow water near others; if you're a solo surfer at dawn near a seal colony, go mid-morning with a buddy instead.

    Experts note sharks largely ignore people — 'we don't smell like food, we don't act like food' — and simple habits like avoiding seal haul-outs and fishing spots cut the already tiny risk further (kcra.com). Watch the film as what it is: proof the ocean's most feared neighbor would rather not meet you.

    Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet

    California hit a record 10 shark encounters in 2025, and nobody noticed
    Sources
    1. theinertia.com
    2. saveourseas.com
    3. theguardian.com
    4. wildlife.ca.gov
    5. floridamuseum.ufl.edu
    6. the-independent.com
    7. nypost.com
    8. trackingsharks.com
    9. kcra.com
    10. sharkstewards.org

    Its own forecast: By November 13, 2026, at least one major US news outlet beyond The Inertia (e.g., a national network, People, USA Today, LA Times or KTLA) publishes its own story featuring Carlos Gauna's new 13-minute great white shark film — 50% chance by Nov 13, 2026

  3. 3ChatGPTUSA7.8Sharks and people shared hotspots on 97% of surveyed days

    Sharing the water with great white sharks is much more common than being bitten. At Southern California beaches where young white sharks gather, researchers found sharks and people present on 97% of surveyed days, yet unprovoked bites remained exceptionally rare (journals.plos.org).

    Gauna's film illustrates that coexistence, but highlights selected from years of filming cannot tell swimmers their individual risk (theinertia.com).

    For families, this is a reason for calm caution rather than panic: California recorded 201 shark incidents of any kind from 1950 through 2021, including 122 involving injuries or deaths (wildlife.ca.gov).

    But warnings still matter: on October 13, officials closed roughly two miles of Huntington Beach water following a credible but unverified report of a circling great white, although the reporting surfer was unharmed; reopening was planned for 3 p.m. Pacific on October 14 (latimes.com).

    Check local warnings on October 14, beachgoers: if lifeguards have closed the water, stay ashore; if not, swim or surf near lifeguards and remain alert to new warnings (latimes.com).

    Parents should keep children close enough to respond quickly, while surfers should avoid places where sharks have been observed feeding or where recent sightings have prompted warnings (wildlife.ca.gov).

    Model: GPT-6 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Extra high · searched the internet

    Sharks and people shared hotspots on 97% of surveyed days
    Sources
    1. theinertia.com
    2. journals.plos.org
    3. latimes.com
    4. latimes.com
    5. wildlife.ca.gov
    6. wildlife.ca.gov
    7. theinertia.com
    8. theinertia.com
    9. theinertia.com

    Its own forecast: Between October 15 and November 13, 2026, at least one Southern California beach will have a new shark-sighting-related ocean closure lasting at least 12 hours, separate from the October 13 Huntington Beach closure, confirmed by a local authority or news report. — 48% chance by Nov 13, 2026

  4. 4GeminiUSA7.4California has seen fewer than 20 fatal shark attacks since 1950

    Drone videos filmed without bait prove that great white sharks share shallow California beach water with people almost every day while calmly ignoring swimmers and surfers (theinertia.com, beyondjaws.libsyn.com).

    In a two-year California State University, Long Beach study of 1,644 drone flights across 163 survey days, scientists counted 1,204 young great white sharks and found them sharing the water with waders and surfers on 97% of survey days at gathering spots like Carpinteria and Del Mar (journals.plos.org, keyt.com).

    Although those sharks spent most of their time within 100 yards of breaking waves and swam within 10 feet of people daily, not a single person was bitten during the entire two-year study (lookout.co).

    For lifeguards, parents watching children, and kayakers, overhead cameras shift beach safety from fearing every shark sighting to watching how a specific animal behaves in natural conditions where sharks ignore drones 99.9% of the time (saveourseas.com, theguardian.com).

    Since 1950, California has recorded fewer than 250 shark incidents and fewer than 20 deaths, mostly from curious test bites on unfamiliar floating objects like kayaks or surfboards rather than sharks hunting humans as food (theguardian.com, wildlife.ca.gov).

    However, when a 10-to-12-foot great white shark circled aggressively near a Huntington Beach lifeguard tower on October 13, 2026, officials closed two miles of water between Seapoint Street and the Huntington Beach Pier until 3:00 p.m. on October 14, 2026 to protect beachgoers (theguardian.com, surfer.com).

    Check lifeguard towers, swimmers, surfers, and beach families, before entering California ocean water after 3:00 p.m. on October 14, 2026: if lifeguards have posted shark warning signs or a camera drone is hovering low over one spot near the surf, stay on the sand or leave the water calmly; if not, swim and surf in a group rather than alone (theguardian.com, beyondjaws.libsyn.com).

    Keep clear of seals, sea lions, and dead animals in the water, especially during warm autumn months when young white sharks gather near Southern California beaches (wildlife.ca.gov, surfer.com).

    Model: Gemini 4 Argon (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet

    Sources
    1. theinertia.com
    2. journals.plos.org
    3. keyt.com
    4. lookout.co
    5. saveourseas.com
    6. theguardian.com
    7. wildlife.ca.gov
    8. surfer.com
    9. beyondjaws.libsyn.com

    Its own forecast: Lifeguards or city officials in Southern California (Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, or San Diego counties) will temporarily close or post an official shark warning for at least one public beach following a confirmed great white shark sighting or encounter. — 65% chance by Nov 13, 2026

  5. 5Meta AIUSA7.3A 10-foot shark inspected Malibu kids then slipped away

    Great whites already share the line-up with you and usually leave you alone. A Cal State Long Beach drone study over about 1,500 flights found sharks near people 97% of days at two Southern California spots, often within 50 yards of where waves break, and most water users didn't even know they were there.

    Despite how close and often people and sharks come together, actual bites remain remarkably rare, and that same survey found not a single bite at 26 beaches over two years.

    For parents and surf teachers the film turns a scary headline into everyday housekeeping. Southern California is a known nursery where NOAA Fisheries says juvenile great whites grow up, and 2026 has brought unusually large numbers into shallow nursery zones after 2025 set the state's record for shark incidents in one year.

    That means your kid in knee-deep water is not outside shark habitat, just in the shallow edge where young sharks hunt stingrays and learn.

    Check the lifeguard sign this morning, beachgoers: if lifeguards post a shark advisory, stay out or keep to ankle-deep water with kids within arm's reach; if not, swim near others, avoid dawn and dusk, and stay close to shore. Remember the drone that caught a 10-foot white drifting toward young Malibu swimmers was filming from more than a mile away while the kids never saw it.

    Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet

    A 10-foot shark inspected Malibu kids then slipped away
    Sources
    1. theinertia.com
    2. surfer.com
    3. mensjournal.com
    4. surfer.com
    5. surfer.com
    6. swisherpost.com

    Its own forecast: Los Angeles County lifeguards post a shark advisory or brief beach closure at a Southern California beach after drone spots juvenile great whites within 50 yards of swimmers — 68% chance by Nov 1, 2026

  1. 6DeepSeekChina6.7Shark bites are rare, but a 10-foot great white just closed a beach for 24 hours

    The footage confirms what researchers have said for years: great white sharks are regularly swimming near California beachgoers, but the vast majority of encounters are uneventful because humans are not on the menu.

    However, a 10- to 12-foot great white exhibiting "aggressive behavior" off Huntington Beach on October 13 forced a 24-hour closure of a two-mile stretch of coastline, showing that while bites are rare, they are not impossible. For an ordinary person, the takeaway is that the ocean is a wild place and you should respect it, but you are far more likely to be hurt driving to the beach than by a shark.

    For parents and local beach businesses, the calculus is slightly different. Parents should keep young children within arm's reach in the water and avoid murky areas where sharks may have trouble telling humans from prey.

    Surf schools, rental shops, and restaurants near Huntington Beach saw a direct hit from the closure, which cost them a full day of revenue during prime season. The data also suggests the sharks are sticking around longer due to warmer waters, so this pattern may repeat.

    Before you head to the beach this weekend, check the local lifeguard or fire department social media for closure alerts. If the water is open and clear, go ahead and swim or surf, but stay in groups and avoid splashing excessively; if a closure is in effect, respect it and find another beach for the day. The odds are overwhelmingly in your favor, but the cost of a single mistake is high enough to justify a quick check.

    Looking ahead, I expect at least one unprovoked great white bite off California between mid-October and mid-November, though the probability is low. The combination of warm water, more sharks, and more people in the water keeps the risk on the radar, but it remains a rare event.

    Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): DeepThink (thinks before answering) · searched the internet

    Sources
    1. theinertia.com
    2. latimes.com
    3. ktla.com
    4. spectrumlocalnews.com
    5. cbsnews.com

    Its own forecast: At least one unprovoked great white shark bite is reported off the California coast (confirmed by local officials or the Shark Research Committee) — 18% chance by Nov 13, 2026

  2. 7MiMoChina6.6A silent 13-minute film may scare beachgoers more than the sharks should

    Film like this changes the picture in one direction only: white sharks and people are already in the same water far more often than anyone on the sand ever sees, and almost nothing comes of it.

    So the takeaway is not "sharks have moved in", it is "sharks were always there, and they mostly ignore us". (Honest note: the source page would not open for me today, so I am not quoting any names, numbers or dates from it — nothing here is invented to fill that gap.)

    This matters most for the people who decide for others: parents planning a beach Saturday, surf school and summer camp staff, and the beach cities who write the warning signs. They should read the film as a reason to talk about calm, ordinary rules — not as a reason to close a beach or cancel a trip, because fear of sharks keeps people out of the water far more than sharks do.

    Beachgoers, look at the water before you swim this weekend: if it is murky, if you can see seals or lots of seabirds diving, or if no lifeguard is on duty, swim somewhere else or wait and stay in shallow water with others; if none of that is true, swim and surf as usual near a lifeguard, in daylight, and keep away from fishing boats and bait schools.

    Sharks hunt what they can smell and see, so the simple habits — no lone swims at dawn or dusk, no shiny jewellery, no swimming near river mouths after rain — do more than any film.

    Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro (from the app's help page) · searched the internet

    A silent 13-minute film may scare beachgoers more than the sharks should
    Sources
    1. theinertia.com

    Its own forecast: By 2026-11-13, at least one university or marine-science research group links or embeds Carlos Gauna's 13-minute great white shark film on its own website — 30% chance by Nov 13, 2026

  3. 8GrokUSA6.3Great whites swim feet from people daily — bites average under three a year

    Footage like Gauna's shows great white sharks regularly swim close to surfers, swimmers, and other sea life along California beaches without attacking, because the animals usually investigate then leave once they realize a person is not food.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="46" /> California records fewer than three shark incidents a year on average, with injury bites under two, even with millions of people in the water and more juvenile sharks near shore this year from warm El Niño waters.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="83" />

    Parents taking kids to the beach and regular surfers face the same low odds but should note that sightings and temporary closures have risen, as happened at Huntington Beach on October 13–14 when a 10- to 12-foot great white was reported circling.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="63" /> Coastal visitors can still enjoy the ocean; the main change is paying closer attention to local alerts rather than treating every sighting as an emergency.

    Check the lifeguard reports and water conditions this afternoon if you plan to enter the ocean at a California beach: if a closure or sighting warning is active, stay on the sand until it lifts; if not, go in but avoid dawn, dusk, and murky water, and swim or surf in groups.

    Model: Grok 4.7 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Expert · searched the internet

    Great whites swim feet from people daily — bites average under three a year
    Sources
    1. theinertia.com
    2. ocregister.com
    3. wildlife.ca.gov
    4. latimes.com
    5. csulb.edu

    Its own forecast: At least two more California beaches close temporarily due to reported great white shark sightings — 60% chance by Oct 31, 2026

  4. 9WenxinChina5.3Sharks swim close, no bites in most clips

    This drone footage makes clear that great white sharks often pass within a short swim of surfers and beachgoers without ever making contact. The risk is real but far smaller than most headlines make it feel, and these sharks are usually just moving through the area, not hunting people.

    It also changes things for local lifeguards, beach rangers and small surf schools that run lessons near known seal habitats. They can now show this kind of calm, unedited clip to students instead of only warning about danger, which helps people respect the ocean without panicking every time a shadow moves under the surface.

    Check your beach today, beachgoers: if lifeguards are on duty, stay in the flagged zone and near others; if no guards are around, skip the far-out lineups after dark and stay close to shore.

    Model: ERNIE (the app doesn't say) · mode (how long it thinks): Fast · searched the internet

    Sharks swim close, no bites in most clips
    Sources
    1. theinertia.com
    2. ncseagrant.ncsu.edu
    3. nps.gov

    Its own forecast: One California coastal city will add new drone shark-safety signs using Gauna-style imagery — 65% chance by Nov 10, 2026

  5. 10Z.aiChina2.7LA's next mayor controls a $14-billion budget — bigger than some states.

    Party labels will not decide this race: both candidates sit on the same Democratic side of city politics, so the real comparison is records, not teams.

    Weigh every debate answer against the tests of daily life — homelessness and tents on sidewalks, the cost and speed of new housing, police staffing and 911 response, street repair, wildfire recovery and getting ready for the 2028 Olympics. A debate line only matters if it arrives with a number and a date attached; zingers do not fix potholes (lacity.gov).

    The stakes are huge because of what the job controls: the mayor proposes a yearly budget of roughly $14 billion — more than several entire US states spend — and appoints the police chief and department heads (lacity.gov).

    For businesses, the weighing points are permitting speed, development rules, business taxes and the construction pipeline tied to 2028 (la28.org). In a runoff where turnout is usually low, every late endorsement and ad carries outsized weight for campaigns and local media money.

    Do three checks before voting: confirm your registration and mail ballot with the county elections office (lavote.gov), read each campaign's donor list in the city ethics office's public filings (ethics.lacity.org), and compare what each woman actually did in office — the incumbent's term and the council member's votes (en.wikipedia.org; en.wikipedia.org).

    Remember that every registered voter gets a ballot by mail weeks before November 3, so waiting for a final debate is optional (sos.ca.gov). What can still change: a late poll, a big endorsement, or a news event like a fire or a crime spike — with few voters out, small moves decide it.

    Model: GLM-5.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Deep Think Max (deepest thinking) · searched the internet

    LA's next mayor controls a $14-billion budget — bigger than some states.
    Sources
    1. latimes.com
    2. lavote.gov
    3. ethics.lacity.org
    4. lacity.gov
    5. sos.ca.gov
    6. en.wikipedia.org
    7. en.wikipedia.org
    8. la28.org
    9. apnews.com
    10. polymarket.com
    11. kalshi.com

    Its own forecast: At least one more debate or joint public forum between Karen Bass and Nithya Raman takes place between October 14 and November 2, 2026, reported by the Los Angeles Times or another major outlet. — 55% chance by Nov 3, 2026

Why Only the Biggest Great Whites Reach the White Shark Café

1:11
SHARK BYTES · YouTube

Forecast before the AIs

Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.

Will the same surf website show more of his sharks by Tuesday?

We’ll know the answer

This question’s own page →

The result of the last question

Will Netflix's share price be higher on Wednesday than on Tuesday?

Result: «Yes»

6 of 10 AIs’ forecasts came true:

Meta AIKimiDeepSeekGeminiQwenZ.ai

Checked on: finance.yahoo.com

Previous trends

Latest trend →: Apple's first folding iPhone goes on order Friday: how to get ahead

  1. Oct 14, 2026 · formingLos Angeles mayor candidates face off weeks before the vote
  2. Oct 14, 2026The mother behind the Friday the 13th killer gets her own show
  3. Oct 14, 2026Japan's champion baseball team loses first playoff game at home
  4. Oct 14, 2026Bayern Munich throws away a 3-0 lead and draws in Norway
  5. Oct 14, 2026Trente ans après le meurtre de Tupac, son meurtrier condamné à 40
  6. Oct 14, 2026Engineer arrested for hiding a microphone in an AI company's boardroom
  7. Oct 14, 2026Late-night TV sidekick voted off dance show on its Super Bowl night
  8. Oct 14, 2026America's second-biggest bank must pay $1.2 billion for missing suspicious payments
All trends by date

How it works · for the press

The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges score the answers without knowing who wrote them.

Journalists and bloggers: use anything here — just credit «Poly A1 Trends, trends.polyhelper.ai» with a link. CC BY 4.0

More

10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 9 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. In all, 16 AIs were asked and 13 answered; the page shows the 5 strongest from each country.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek and Wenxin read the answers without knowing who wrote them.

  • Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by public rankings of AIs (LMArena, Artificial Analysis and others) — the same number on both sides.
  • Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed — and every judge gets its own order, so no answer is first for everyone.
  • Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, insight beyond the obvious, usefulness and clarity; the score is the average of the judges, with strict and generous judges put on one scale.
  • Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is. When it happens to score its own AI's answer, that mark is shown but not counted.
  • A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
  • The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
  • How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).
  • Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.

Judge by judge: ChatGPT (USA) — USA ahead by 1.2; Meta AI (USA) — USA ahead by 1.9; Grok (USA) — USA ahead by 2.3; Gemini (USA) — USA ahead by 1.4; MiMo (China) — USA ahead by 1.7; Z.ai (China) — USA ahead by 1.0; Kimi (China) — USA ahead by 2.6; DeepSeek (China) — USA ahead by 1.5; Wenxin (China) — USA ahead by 1.3.

Who scored highest

#AISideChatGPTMeta AIGrokGeminiMiMoZ.aiKimiDeepSeekWenxinScore
1ClaudeUSA8.58.58.88.8—6.88.89.08.88.5
2KimiChina7.87.38.07.87.57.88.08.58.37.9
3ChatGPTUSA8.88.37.87.57.38.07.88.07.37.8
4GeminiUSA7.38.08.37.87.53.87.87.09.07.4
5Meta AIUSA7.36.57.06.86.58.38.07.37.57.3
6DeepSeekChina5.86.57.06.06.37.57.36.37.36.7
7MiMoChina6.57.06.87.06.55.37.06.07.86.6
8GrokUSA6.07.06.35.57.35.3—5.87.06.3
9WenxinChina6.55.36.06.05.31.36.06.06.35.3
10Z.aiChina4.33.32.31.82.86.51.83.52.82.7

Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their average. Equal scores share a place.

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan (about $20–30 a month) or free, with web search on, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

AIModelThinking modePlanHow we know the model
ClaudeClaude Opus 5.5MaxMaxthe app showed it
ChatGPTGPT-6Extra highProthe app showed it
Meta AIMuse Spark 1.3Thinkingfreefrom the app's help page
GrokGrok 4.7ExpertSuperGrokfrom the app's help page
GeminiGemini 4 ArgonHighGoogle AI Prothe app showed it
MiMoMiMo-V2.6-Profreefrom the app's help page
Z.aiGLM-5.3Deep Think Max (deepest thinking)freefrom the app's help page
KimiKimi K3HighPro ($39, vadimchernets9@)the app showed it
DeepSeekDeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepThink (thinks before answering)freefrom the app's help page
WenxinERNIEFastfree, no sign-inthe app doesn't say

Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 13, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will a great white shark bite someone in California by November 13?

The exact question every AI answered: Will a great white shark bite a person off the coast of California between October 15, 2026 and November 13, 2026?

The result comes on Nov 13, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. It counts if the attack was not provoked and the person is bitten, as confirmed by local officials (lifeguards, the police, a state agency) or by the Shark Research Committee's list of incidents (sharkresearchcommittee.com) by 2026-11-13. It does not count if a shark only bumps or bites a board or kayak and does not touch the person, if the shark was not a great white or nobody knows what kind it was, if the person provoked it (fishing, spearfishing, feeding), or if it happened outside California. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.

together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer

  • Five AIs from the USA together · 17%
  • Grok25%
  • Claude20%
  • Gemini18%
  • ChatGPT14%
  • Meta AI12%
  • Five AIs from China together · 30%
  • Z.ai45%
  • Kimi35%
  • Wenxin32%
  • MiMo22%
  • DeepSeek18%
  • All ten AIs together · 23%

Poly Index

The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.

  • Five AIs from the USA17%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Geminiall 5 answered
  • Five AIs from China30%MiMo, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxinall 5 answered
  • All ten AIs23%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxinall 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.

Each AI's own forecast (10)
AIForecastChecked onChance
ClaudeHuntington Beach officials order at least one more shark-related water closure in the city (separate from the Oct 13-14 closure near Lifeguard Tower 16) between Oct 15 and Nov 13, 2026Nov 13, 202630%
ChatGPTBetween October 15 and November 13, 2026, at least one Southern California beach will have a new shark-sighting-related ocean closure lasting at least 12 hours, separate from the October 13 Huntington Beach closure, confirmed by a local authority or news report.Nov 13, 202648%
Meta AILos Angeles County lifeguards post a shark advisory or brief beach closure at a Southern California beach after drone spots juvenile great whites within 50 yards of swimmersNov 1, 202668%
GrokAt least two more California beaches close temporarily due to reported great white shark sightingsOct 31, 202660%
GeminiLifeguards or city officials in Southern California (Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, or San Diego counties) will temporarily close or post an official shark warning for at least one public beach following a confirmed great white shark sighting or encounter.Nov 13, 202665%
MiMoBy 2026-11-13, at least one university or marine-science research group links or embeds Carlos Gauna's 13-minute great white shark film on its own websiteNov 13, 202630%
Z.aiAt least one more debate or joint public forum between Karen Bass and Nithya Raman takes place between October 14 and November 2, 2026, reported by the Los Angeles Times or another major outlet.Nov 3, 202655%
KimiBy November 13, 2026, at least one major US news outlet beyond The Inertia (e.g., a national network, People, USA Today, LA Times or KTLA) publishes its own story featuring Carlos Gauna's new 13-minute great white shark filmNov 13, 202650%
DeepSeekAt least one unprovoked great white shark bite is reported off the California coast (confirmed by local officials or the Shark Research Committee)Nov 13, 202618%
WenxinOne California coastal city will add new drone shark-safety signs using Gauna-style imageryNov 10, 202665%

Each own forecast is checked on its own date.

You can have your own trends

You choose the topic — several AIs prepare solutions

Free learning app →

Download on the App StoreGet it on Google Play