From the trend: A team of AI helpers now builds its own software around the clock
Will the AI helpers' to-do list be longer or shorter on Friday?
Forecast before the AIs
Your forecast first — then we show what 8 AIs forecast.
Will the AI helpers' to-do list be longer or shorter on Friday?
At the time of the question: 29 open tasks
We’ll know the answer
Longer — 5 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳StepFun🇨🇳Wenxin🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳Kimi
Meta: new tasks pop up faster than old ones get closed
Shorter — 3 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Z.ai🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸ChatGPT
Z.ai: Open issues usually grow when a project gets attention, and the AI agents themselves file and close issues daily.
We check it on: github.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: github.com
The answer is due on Oct 16, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will the number of open issues on Spool's GitHub Issues tab be higher at 23:00 UTC on Friday, October 16, 2026 than the 29 shown at 01:00 UTC on October 15? (Equal counts as lower.) Check: https://github.com/enes-alatas/spool/issues.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 45 hours before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 41 of the book: cbbc1805f928046ede1867df99eed690aca6e60d74d8d71a46f90a909a06dcd7
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-15-013439Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-15-013439Z.txt.ots
- The first 41 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 41 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-15-013439Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.