From the trend: Claude AI maker earns $16.8 billion in three months, eyes stock market
Will big news outlets still be writing about Anthropic's share sale on Monday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will big news outlets still be writing about Anthropic's share sale on Monday?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 7 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳StepFun🇨🇳Qwen🇨🇳Z.ai🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳Wenxin🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳Kimi
StepFun: One of the biggest share sales ever; these outlets cover it daily.
No — 3 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Gemini🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Claude
Gemini: Major news sites already reported the story today, making four Monday headlines unlikely.
We check it on: news.google.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: news.google.com
The answer is due on Oct 20, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
On Monday, October 19, 2026 (New York time), will at least 4 of these 7 outlets publish a new article whose headline mentions Anthropic and its share sale, IPO, listing or going public: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Financial Times, Associated Press? Checked by searching each site for that day.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 5 days before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 50 of the book: add4c2a31803bd94215dd8dc235e162a07d98ba3a480393757e0e0d95f234cfb
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-15-023442Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-15-023442Z.txt.ots
- The first 50 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 50 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-15-023442Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.