From the trend: Baseball star Ohtani plays hurt as the champion Dodgers face elimination
Who wins Thursday's game: the Dodgers or the Brewers?
Forecast before the AIs
Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Who wins Thursday's game: the Dodgers or the Brewers?
We’ll know the answer
Dodgers — 7 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳StepFun🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸Gemini🇨🇳Kimi🇨🇳MiMo🇺🇸Meta
StepFun: Home team, better pitcher, and the betting shops still favor the Dodgers.
Brewers — 3 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇨🇳Qwen🇨🇳Wenxin
Nemotron + Mercury: Brewers have strong pitching and momentum now
We check it on: mlb.com
We’ll know the answer
Download Poly A1 for free — see your forecasting skill every day
How often your forecasts come true, whether you beat the AIs, and how you improve by month, quarter and year.
How we will check the answer
We check it on: mlb.com
The answer is due on Oct 16, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Who wins Game 4 of the 2026 National League semifinal, played at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, October 15, 2026 (8 p.m. Eastern Time): the Los Angeles Dodgers or the Milwaukee Brewers? Settled by the final score on Major League Baseball's scores page.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 10 hours before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 58 of the book: 44cef4e7bd703096a870515361d98ca09cf60c128305ecc2b3862533f10271a2
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-15-195407Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-15-195407Z.txt.ots
- The first 58 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 58 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-15-195407Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.