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Baseball star Ohtani plays hurt as the champion Dodgers face elimination

Baseball star Ohtani plays hurt as the champion Dodgers face elimination
Picture: ChatGPT →

Teams up 3-0 win 41 times in 42, and the Dodgers' trouble is their whole lineup, not just Ohtani.

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average of its top 5 AIs · today's answers, scored out of 10 by other AIs acting as judges — not who will guess the future← Previous trend: A 60-year-old French car-parts factory closes, 244 workers lose jobs
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Shohei Ohtani is the Japanese two-way star of the Los Angeles Dodgers. He says he can keep playing with knee and arm problems that have bothered him for months. The American sports channel ESPN reported on October 14, 2026, that he was moved down to sixth in the batting order after a playoff slump.

That same night the Milwaukee Brewers beat the Dodgers 6-2. The Brewers now lead the best-of-seven National League semifinal 3-0 and need one more win to reach the World Series. Game 4 is in Los Angeles on Thursday, October 15, 2026 (source).

What does this mean for the Dodgers, for Ohtani, and for the Brewers? What is likely to happen next? What should people like the readers of this page take from it: baseball fans in America, Japan and elsewhere, people who follow star athletes playing hurt, and fans of teams facing long odds?

In plain words: ESPN — an American sports TV channel and website; Dodgers — Los Angeles baseball team, champions in 2024 and 2025; Brewers — Milwaukee baseball team, now leading the series; World Series — the final round of American baseball; National League — one of baseball's two leagues in America; best-of-seven — first team to win four games advances; two-way star — a player who both pitches and hits

Teams up 3-0 win 41 times in 42, and the Dodgers' trouble is their whole lineup, not just Ohtani.
Scheme: Kimi →

What to do

Even a $700 million star is benched in the batting order when his body says no, and 41 of 42 teams up 3-0 win.

Who should do what

What not to do: Don't treat one Dodgers win as a turnaround; the odds stay about 1 in 12.

The Dodgers' season is likely to end Thursday or Friday. Only one team has ever come back from 3-0, so one Dodgers win would only delay the end, not turn the series around.

Ticket prices move faster than the odds do. The cheapest Game 4 resale seat fell from $156 to $77 after Game 3, while seats for a Milwaukee World Series opener rose 21%. Compare all-in prices with fees on October 15 before buying anything.

Watch Game 4 on Thursday, October 15, 8 p.m. Eastern. If you want to see history, root for a Dodgers win and a Game 5 on Friday. If not, expect Milwaukee to close it out.

This is what most of the 10 AIs advise. Each AI explains it in its own words below.

What the world's 10 leading AIs think

They agree
Most answers: only one of 42 teams ever came back from 3-0.
They split
MiMo blames the whole lineup; most others blame Ohtani's injuries.
Not obvious
The team that out-homered the Dodgers 5-0 ranked 28th in home runs.
What to watch
If Milwaukee wins Game 4 on October 15, the 3-0 conclusion holds.
Read in full

Most of the ten agree the Dodgers are all but finished. Of 42 teams that led a best-of-seven playoff series 3-0, 41 won it. The one exception is the 2004 Boston Red Sox, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts played on that team. Most also agree Milwaukee is one win from its first World Series since 1982.

They split on whose story this is. Most make it Ohtani's: a hurt knee and arm since June, no home run since August 18, and a drop to sixth in the batting order. MiMo argues the problem is the whole lineup. The Dodgers hit .146 with runners on base, and a Brewers team that was near the bottom in home runs all season out-homered them 5-0.

They also differ on how hard a Game 4 win would be. ChatGPT and Kimi note that Tyler Glasnow starts for Los Angeles against a Brewers bullpen game. A Dodgers win is possible, but it would only add one more game. A few answers got the details wrong: one moved a possible Game 5 to Milwaukee, and another turned six hits into one.

On playing hurt, several answers land in the same place. Determination does not replace medical judgment, and Dodgers officials admitted Ohtani does not always report how he feels. Expect a Brewers pennant, with the winner of the Tampa Bay-Cleveland series waiting in the World Series.

They split: MiMo blames the whole lineup; most others blame Ohtani's injuries.
What settles the dispute: Game 4 and Game 5 will show whether the Dodgers' offense wakes up.

No clear split: the USA and China answers reach the same conclusions and differ only in detail.

What is confirmed and what is not

  • The AIs' conclusion Only the 2004 Red Sox came back from 3-0 in a best-of-seven series
  • The AIs' conclusion Ohtani has had no home run since August 18
  • The AIs' conclusion Milwaukee out-homered Los Angeles 5-0 in this series

The AIs read 45 sources

Ask any AI yourself

My favorite team trails 3-0 in a series. Based on history, what are its real chances and what should I do as a fan?

Copy it and paste it into a chat with any AI

Ask several AIs at once — in our app

Who wins, who loses: Milwaukee fans and bettors gain; Dodgers fans and resale-ticket sellers lose.

Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Under each answer: its model — the exact version of the AI. Tap an answer to read it.

  1. 1ChatGPTUSA8.4Dodgers tickets halved while Milwaukee World Series seats rose 21%

    Expect Milwaukee to take the series, fans, on October 15 at 8 p.m. Eastern: if you're hoping for a Dodgers comeback, watch Game 4; if not, check the October 16 score (mlb.com).

    Of 42 completed best-of-seven playoff series in which one team led 3–0, only one ended in a comeback—and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts played on that winning Boston team in 2004 (mlb.com).

    Los Angeles has a better chance of winning tonight than winning four straight: its starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow has performed well in previous playoff games, while Milwaukee's Shane Drohan makes his postseason debut (mlb.com).

    For Ohtani's fans in Japan, America and elsewhere, Wednesday offered a small sign of improvement, not proof of recovery: he reached base three times but still has no hit beyond a single this postseason (reuters.com).

    His right arm and left knee problems have persisted since June, and Dodgers officials acknowledge that his descriptions of how he feels have not always been accurate (mlb.com).

    The lesson for anyone watching athletes play hurt is that determination cannot replace sound medical judgment; meanwhile, Milwaukee's strength extends across a pitching staff that has allowed just 1.74 earned runs per nine innings this postseason (mlb.com).

    For fans buying tickets, the cheapest reported Game 4 resale seat fell from $156 on Sunday to $77 after Wednesday's defeat, while seats for a possible Milwaukee World Series opener rose 21% to $1,317 (reuters.com).

    Compare current prices including fees before buying on October 15; otherwise, remember that even if Milwaukee advances, it must still beat the eventual winner of the Tampa Bay–Cleveland series to become champion (foxsports.com).

    Model: GPT-6 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Extra high · searched the internet

    Dodgers tickets halved while Milwaukee World Series seats rose 21%
    Sources
    1. mlb.com
    2. mlb.com
    3. reuters.com
    4. reuters.com
    5. reuters.com
    6. foxsports.com
    7. foxsports.com
    8. fanduel.com

    Its own forecast: The Milwaukee Brewers will win the National League Championship Series by the end of Game 5, no later than October 16, 2026. — 72% chance by Oct 16, 2026

  2. 2KimiChina8.1Baseball's 700-million-dollar man has not homered since August 18

    The Dodgers are all but finished. In baseball history, 42 teams have led a first-to-four playoff series three games to none, and 41 of them won it — the only comeback ever was the 2004 Boston Red Sox, and current Dodgers manager Dave Roberts played on that team.

    Ohtani being dropped to sixth in the batting order, his lowest spot since joining Los Angeles, only confirms the numbers: he is hitting.182 this postseason with no home run since mid-August, playing on a bad left knee and a sore right arm, and he cannot pitch at all.

    For Milwaukee this is a shot at its first World Series since 1982, forty-four years ago, and a chance to become the first team ever to sweep the club that swept it a year earlier.

    For fans in Japan, and for anyone who follows stars playing hurt, it is something rarer and harder to watch: the world's best baseball player insisting he is healthy enough while his body clearly limits him, and his manager choosing loyalty over benching him. Even if Ohtani's bat wakes up, the Dodgers have scored four runs in a game only once in this series against a Milwaukee relief crew that has allowed almost nothing all October.

    Watch Game 4 on Thursday night, October 15, at 8 p.m. Eastern: if the Brewers win, the series ends right there and Milwaukee goes to the World Series; if the Dodgers win behind their starter Tyler Glasnow, the teams play Game 5 in Los Angeles on Friday night.

    Fans should treat any Dodgers win as borrowed time, not a turnaround — history, the form of both teams, and Ohtani's health all point the same way, and Milwaukee has four chances to close it out.

    Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet

    Baseball's 700-million-dollar man has not homered since August 18
    Sources
    1. espn.com
    2. mlb.com
    3. mlb.com
    4. ca.sports.yahoo.com
    5. cbssports.com
    6. bleacherreport.com
    7. sports.yahoo.com
    8. espn.com
    9. usatoday.com

    Its own forecast: The Milwaukee Brewers clinch the National League pennant no later than Game 5, ending the series by Friday night in Los Angeles — 70% chance by Oct 17, 2026

  3. 3StepFunChina8.1The only man who erased 3-0 now manages the Dodgers

    The Dodgers are not merely losing a series; their best player is hurt and the offense has gone quiet with him. Shohei Ohtani has three hits, seven strikeouts and no home runs in twenty playoff swings, and the knee and arm problems that kept him off the pitcher's mound since July 3 have followed a thirty-home-run season into its worst stretch — he is hitting sixth, the lowest spot in his lineup since 2020.

    Milwaukee, a club that won 103 games, hit three home runs off Blake Snell on Wednesday, two of them back-to-back in the seventh, and now needs one win for its first World Series in 44 years, with a rookie left-hander expected to start Thursday against the Dodgers' Tyler Glasnow.

    For people in Japan who set an alarm for Ohtani, the story is the man and not the score, and fans there are openly worried about his knee. For anyone with money on the season, the market has flipped hard: betting shops gave Milwaukee about a one-in-four shot before this series and now make the Brewers the clear favorites, while the two-time defending Dodgers are down to roughly one chance in twelve.

    For everyone else watching October, the other half of the bracket is still open — Cleveland and Tampa Bay are tied 1-1 — so Milwaukee's World Series opponent is not decided.

    Watch it live, fans — Thursday's game starts at 8 p.m. Eastern (5 p.m. in Los Angeles), and the fork is simple: if the Dodgers win, they get one more home game on Friday night and a run at becoming only the second team in major-league history to come back from three games down; if they lose, Milwaukee celebrates on the Dodger Stadium grass and Los Angeles' bid for a third straight title, the first since the Yankees of 1998-2000, is over.

    Fans of a star playing hurt should look at the numbers from Wednesday's game rather than the argument: Ohtani went 1-for-2 with a walk, and manager Dave Roberts says he will keep him in the lineup as long as Ohtani says he is healthy enough.

    Fans of long shots should take the other lesson: the man who sparked the only comeback from three games down, with Boston in 2004, is the one managing this Dodgers team, and he is telling them to stop the bleeding rather than relive it.

    Model: Step 5 Preview (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet

    Sources
    1. espn.com
    2. foxsports.com
    3. mlb.com
    4. espn.com
    5. apnews.com
    6. mlb.com
    7. mlb.com
    8. mlb.com
    9. mlb.com
    10. cbssports.com
    11. si.com
    12. foxsports.com

    Its own forecast: The Dodgers win NLCS Game 4 on Thursday, Oct. 15, but still lose the National League semifinal — Milwaukee closes them out in Game 6 or Game 7 in Milwaukee. — 15% chance by Oct 19, 2026

  4. 4MiMoChina7.8Baseball's 28th-best power team out-homered the Dodgers 5 to 0

    The Dodgers' three-year title run is one loss from ending, and the reason is the whole lineup, not one star: Los Angeles is batting.146 with runners on base in this series (espn.com), while Milwaukee — a club that ranked tied 28th in home runs all season — has out-homered them 5 to 0 (sports.yahoo.com).

    For anyone following a hero who plays hurt: Ohtani's sore knee and arm have kept him home-runless since August 18, and his manager dropped him to sixth in the batting order (espn.com), the lowest slot in his three Dodgers years.

    Stars are still human — after 20 at-bats with three singles this postseason (espn.com), even a $700 million player can look like a bench guy (espn.com).

    Bar and hotel owners around Milwaukee: staff up, because one more win sends the Brewers to their first World Series since 1982 (espn.com), and betting markets now rate them the title favorite (about a three-in-five chance) (espn.com).

    Coaches and parents get the other side of the same night: the Dodgers' top boss admitted Ohtani did not fully share how hurt he felt (espn.com), and by August the sport's best player had one hit in 49 at-bats before he finally sat out (espn.com).

    Fans, watch Thursday, October 15 at 8 p.m. Eastern: if Los Angeles wins behind Tyler Glasnow against Milwaukee's patchwork pitching (espn.com), the series survives and the 2004 Red Sox — the only one of 42 teams ever to erase a 3-0 hole (espn.com) — become the talk of the clubhouse; if the Brewers win, the pennant goes to Milwaukee and the Dodgers' three-year reign stops there (espn.com).

    Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro (the app showed it) · searched the internet

    Sources
    1. espn.com
    2. sports.yahoo.com
    3. espn.com
    4. espn.com
    5. espn.com
    6. espn.com
    7. espn.com
    8. espn.com

    Its own forecast: Shohei Ohtani has a knee or arm procedure (surgery or similar) announced before 2026-12-15 — 45% chance by Dec 15, 2026

  5. 5MetaUSA7.1Brewers one win from first World Series since 1982

    The Dodgers bet on one super talent with a $700 million, 10-year deal, and now that bet looks shaky when he hits.150 over six postseason games and bats sixth for the first time in three years in Los Angeles. Milwaukee, a team that has not reached the World Series since 1982, showed that timely long balls beat star power. For a normal person it is a reminder that even the greatest can be hurt and ordinary.

    For parents, coaches and anyone who manages hurt stars, Roberts saying it is everything, upper body and knee, while still starting Ohtani is a warning about playing through left knee and right biceps and right arm problems since June and a stint on the injured list in September.

    For small-market fans and front offices, this 3-0 edge after wins of 2-1, 7-4 and 6-2 shows you do not need the biggest payroll, you need a pitcher like Robert Gasser holding Los Angeles scoreless for five innings and two back-to-back homers in the seventh from Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell.

    Watch fans Thursday October 15 at 8 p.m. ET on FS1 if you want drama cheer for Los Angeles with Tyler Glasnow starting to force Game 5; if not, cheer for Milwaukee to close a 3-0 lead and book its first World Series in 44 years.

    Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet

    Brewers one win from first World Series since 1982
    Sources
    1. https://www.espn.[STRIPPED 81 bytes]
    2. nypost.com
    3. wfnbthefanbase.com
    4. jsonline.com
    5. foxsports.com

    Its own forecast: Shohei Ohtani will be announced to need offseason left knee treatment, injection or surgery — 62% chance by Oct 28, 2026

  1. 6GrokUSA6.8Ohtani 4-for-22 with no extra-base hits while batting sixth

    For ordinary baseball fans in America, Japan and elsewhere, this means the Dodgers’ bid for a third straight title is almost certainly finished and the Brewers are one win from their first World Series trip since 1982.

    Ohtani, playing through left-knee and right-arm problems that have lingered since at least June, went 1-for-2 with a walk while hitting sixth in the 6-2 Game 3 loss and is now 4-for-22 (.182) with zero extra-base hits this postseason; only the 2004 Boston Red Sox have ever come back from a 3-0 hole in a best-of-seven series.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="0" /><grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="63" />

    For people who follow star athletes playing hurt, Ohtani’s insistence that he feels good enough to stay in the lineup has produced almost no results and dropped him to the lowest spot of his Dodgers career, showing that months of knee and arm issues can limit even the biggest names without helping the team much in elimination games.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="35" />

    Watch the 8 p.m. Eastern Game 4 at Dodger Stadium tonight if you follow the series; if you still believe a historic comeback is possible, root for the Dodgers to start climbing the 3-0 hole, and if not, get ready for the Brewers to advance.

    Model: Grok 4.7 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Expert · searched the internet

    Sources
    1. espn.com
    2. mlb.com
    3. mlb.com
    4. usatoday.com
    5. en.wikipedia.org

    Its own forecast: Shohei Ohtani will not hit a home run in any remaining 2026 postseason game — 72% chance by Nov 14, 2026

  2. 7GeminiUSA6.3Ohtani's demotion to sixth spot leaves Dodgers on the edge of elimination

    For the average viewer, this setback highlights how physical stress can slow down even baseball's top performers when competing through lingering injuries. Playing through knee and arm ailments has visibly limited Ohtani's impact, forcing managerial adjustments during high-stakes games. His position shift down the batting order reflects a tactical decision to relieve pressure while maintaining his presence on the field.

    Sports bettors and fantasy managers should adjust expectations for injured stars battling late in the postseason. Decreased power output and lower batting spots directly alter daily projection metrics and team run totals. Looking closely at individual player health trends offers a clear edge over relying purely on season-long prestige.

    Fans should check team lineups on Thursday, October 15, 2026: if Ohtani remains in the sixth spot, expect lower power projections; if he returns to the top, look for an aggressive rally attempt.

    Model: Gemini 3 (Auto) (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet

    Sources
    1. espn.com
    2. apnews.com
    3. dodgersdigest.com
    4. foxsports.com

    Its own forecast: The Milwaukee Brewers sweep the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-0 to win the 2026 National League Championship Series — 70% chance by Oct 17, 2026

  3. 8WenxinChina5.8Ohtani dropped to 6th, Dodgers trail 0-3

    For baseball fans across the U.S., Japan and worldwide, this series turn rewrites a season that many assumed the Dodgers would cruise through. Ohtani’s willingness to play through nagging pain also makes every remaining at-bat feel far more meaningful than a standard playoff game.

    It also shifts the math for anyone who follows star athletes competing hurt, showing that even the most talented two-way player cannot single-handedly carry a team past a red-hot opponent when his body limits his usual impact. Teams facing a 0-3 hole now have a far clearer example of how narrow their path back really is.

    Follow fans, check Game 4 live on October 15: if the Dodgers win, stay tuned for one of the rarest comeback chases in playoff history; if the Brewers win, you will see a team punch its World Series ticket on the road.

    Model: ERNIE (the app doesn't say) · mode (how long it thinks): Fast · searched the internet

    Ohtani dropped to 6th, Dodgers trail 0-3
    Sources
    1. espn.com
    2. sports.yahoo.com
    3. mlb.com

    Its own forecast: The Brewers will close out the NL semifinal in Game 4 and eliminate the Dodgers — 65% chance by Oct 15, 2026

  4. 9QwenChina5.6Brewers need one win to flip last year's sweep script.

    The Dodgers face elimination because their biggest star, Shohei Ohtani, is playing hurt and struggling, hitting just.150 in the playoffs. For ordinary fans, this means watching a legend push through pain is inspiring but rarely changes the final score when the team is down 3-0. The Brewers, meanwhile, are one win away from reaching the World Series after taking a 6-2 victory in Game 3.

    This shifts things for local bars in Los Angeles, which may see lower profits if the series ends abruptly. It also matters to athletic trainers everywhere, proving that playing through lingering knee and arm issues often leads to a swift exit1.

    Check the official lineup before 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, October 15, 2026, fans: if Ohtani bats sixth or lower, expect a low-scoring game and adjust your viewing plans; if not, prepare for a desperate rally attempt. This simple step saves you from disappointment on a tough night.

    Model: Qwen3.8-Max (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet

    Brewers need one win to flip last year's sweep script.
    Sources
    1. mlb.com
    2. espn.com
    3. mlb.com
    4. abc7.com

    Its own forecast: Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series — 40% chance by Nov 14, 2026

  5. 10Nemotron + MercuryUSA4.8Ohtani struggles as Dodgers face historic comeback odds

    For ordinary fans, this is a painful lesson on how quickly hopes evaporate. The Dodgers had looked unbeatable but now face a 3-0 hole that has been almost impossible to overcome in history.

    Local businesses near the stadium should prepare for quieter sales this weekend. A win might bring crowds tomorrow but long-term interest in a championship run fades fast.

    Gather your family for Thursday night. If you backed the underdogs to recover, accept the outcome and move on; if you watch for history, watch how the Brewers try to finish the sweep.

    Model: Mercury 2.5 (the app doesn't say) · mode (how long it thinks): High · Nemotron 3 Ultra did not answer — Mercury wrote it alone · searched the internet

    Sources
    1. mlb.com
    2. espn.com
    3. mlb.com
    4. cbssports.com
    5. foxsports.com
    6. sports.yahoo.com

    Its own forecast: Brewers win the 2026 World Series — 55% chance by Nov 10, 2026

Brewers Look To Take 3-0 NLCS Lead Over Dodgers

7:35
Dan Patrick Show · YouTube

Forecast before the AIs

Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.

Who wins Thursday's game: the Dodgers or the Brewers?

We’ll know the answer

This question’s own page →

The result of the last question

Will Netflix's share price be higher on Wednesday than on Tuesday?

Result: «Yes»

6 of 10 AIs’ forecasts came true:

Meta AIKimiDeepSeekGeminiQwenZ.ai

Checked on: finance.yahoo.com

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How it works · for the press

The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.

(License CC BY 4.0)
Journalists and bloggers: take whatever you need from here — just credit «Poly Trends, polyhelper.ai».

More

10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 8 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. In all, 16 AIs were asked and 11 answered; the page shows the 5 strongest from each country.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

Mistral (Large 4 or Medium 3.5), ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron + Mercury, Qwen, Kimi and Wenxin read the answers without knowing who wrote them.

  • Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by public rankings of AIs (LMArena, Artificial Analysis and others) — the same number on both sides.
  • Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed — and every judge gets its own order, so no answer is first for everyone.
  • Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, insight beyond the obvious, usefulness and clarity; the score is the average of the judges, with strict and generous judges put on one scale.
  • Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own AI's and its own company's answers too, and every mark counts: the answers are blind, so no judge knows which one is its own.
  • A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
  • The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
  • How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).
  • Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.

Judge by judge: Mistral — China ahead by 0.5; ChatGPT (USA) — China ahead by 0.7; Meta (USA) — China ahead by 0.6; Gemini (USA) — China ahead by 0.6; Nemotron + Mercury (USA) — USA ahead by 0.5; Qwen (China) — China ahead by 1.2; Kimi (China) — USA ahead by 0.5; Wenxin (China) — China ahead by 1.0.

Who scored highest

#AISideMistralChatGPTMetaGeminiNemotron + MercuryQwenKimiWenxinScore
1ChatGPTUSA8.09.38.37.87.89.58.59.58.4
2KimiChina8.38.08.57.87.88.57.88.58.1
3StepFunChina8.37.57.87.88.09.37.88.58.1
4MiMoChina7.57.86.88.37.89.06.89.37.8
5MetaUSA7.06.86.8—7.58.06.8—7.1
6GrokUSA7.05.85.87.07.57.57.07.86.8
7GeminiUSA5.86.55.86.87.85.86.57.06.3
8WenxinChina5.55.55.36.85.86.55.56.05.8
9QwenChina5.04.55.06.56.55.85.36.85.6
10Nemotron + MercuryUSA4.85.04.55.55.85.35.04.84.8

Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their average. Equal scores share a place.

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan, the kind people buy for themselves (up to about $40 a month), or free, with web search on, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

The five AIs of each country are reviewed every 3 days by average scores: the weakest gives its place to the strongest reserve.

AIModelThinking modePlanHow we know the model
ChatGPTGPT-6Extra highProthe app showed it
MetaMuse Spark 1.3Thinkingfreefrom the app's help page
GrokGrok 4.7ExpertSuperGrokfrom the app's help page
GeminiGemini 3 (Auto)HighGoogle AI Profrom the app's help page
Nemotron + MercuryMercury 2.5Highfreethe app doesn't say
Mercury web search for Nemotron + MercuryMercury 2.5Highfreethe app doesn't say
MiMoMiMo-V2.6-Profreethe app showed it
QwenQwen3.8-MaxThinkingfreethe app showed it
KimiKimi K3HighAllegrettothe app showed it
WenxinERNIEFastfree, no sign-inthe app doesn't say
StepFunStep 5 PreviewHighfreefrom the app's help page
Mistral · AI judgeMistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5ThinkFreethe app doesn't say

Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 14, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will the Brewers win baseball's championship by November 14?

The exact question every AI answered: Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series, with the final game played by 2026-11-14?

The result comes on Nov 14, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. Check: Major League Baseball's official postseason page (https://www.mlb.com/postseason) or any major sports news site reporting the champion. Counts only if the Brewers win the deciding World Series game by that date. Does not count: winning the National League semifinal only, leading the World Series without clinching it, or a series still unfinished on 2026-11-14. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.

together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer

  • Five AIs from the USA together · 46%
  • ChatGPT56%
  • Nemotron + Mercury55%
  • Gemini45%
  • Meta38%
  • Grok27%
  • Five AIs from China together · 48%
  • StepFun58%
  • MiMo55%
  • Kimi50%
  • Qwen40%
  • Wenxin35%
  • All ten AIs together · 47%

Poly Index

The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.

  • Five AIs from the USA46%ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron + Mercuryall 5 answered
  • Five AIs from China48%MiMo, Qwen, Kimi, Wenxin, StepFunall 5 answered
  • All ten AIs47%ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron + Mercury, MiMo, Qwen, Kimi, Wenxin, StepFunall 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.

Each AI's own forecast (10)
AIForecastChecked onChance
ChatGPTThe Milwaukee Brewers will win the National League Championship Series by the end of Game 5, no later than October 16, 2026.Oct 16, 202672%
MetaShohei Ohtani will be announced to need offseason left knee treatment, injection or surgeryOct 28, 202662%
GrokShohei Ohtani will not hit a home run in any remaining 2026 postseason gameNov 14, 202672%
GeminiThe Milwaukee Brewers sweep the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-0 to win the 2026 National League Championship SeriesOct 17, 202670%
Nemotron + MercuryBrewers win the 2026 World SeriesNov 10, 202655%
MiMoShohei Ohtani has a knee or arm procedure (surgery or similar) announced before 2026-12-15Dec 15, 202645%
QwenMilwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World SeriesNov 14, 202640%
KimiThe Milwaukee Brewers clinch the National League pennant no later than Game 5, ending the series by Friday night in Los AngelesOct 17, 202670%
WenxinThe Brewers will close out the NL semifinal in Game 4 and eliminate the DodgersOct 15, 202665%
StepFunThe Dodgers win NLCS Game 4 on Thursday, Oct. 15, but still lose the National League semifinal — Milwaukee closes them out in Game 6 or Game 7 in Milwaukee.Oct 19, 202615%

Each own forecast is checked on its own date.

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