From the trend: Eagles star quarterback sidelined by a blood clot in his leg
Will the Eagles sign an experienced quarterback by Tuesday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will the Eagles sign an experienced quarterback by Tuesday?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 6 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸Meta🇺🇸Gemini🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳DeepSeek🇺🇸Claude
Kimi: Only McKee and an unready rookie remain, so veteran help is a quick fix.
No — 4 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Qwen🇨🇳MiMo🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳Z.ai
Qwen: The team trusts their current backups and rarely signs veterans for short injuries.
We check it on: espn.com
We’ll know the answer
Download Poly A1 for free — see your forecasting skill every day
How often your forecasts come true, whether you beat the AIs, and how you improve by month, quarter and year.
How we will check the answer
We check it on: espn.com
The answer is due on Oct 21, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
By the end of Tuesday, October 20, 2026 (US Eastern time), will the Eagles sign a quarterback who has started at least one game in the National Football League, to any roster or contract? It is settled by the Eagles' transactions on ESPN. A tryout, a visit or a report of talks does not count.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 5 days before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 59 of the book: 08a42b9d6be189941bed440126192b1dc11bcdaaa07e22db551c8a17d70982c7
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-15-203549Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-15-203549Z.txt.ots
- The first 59 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 59 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-15-203549Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.