On October 15, 2026, the Philadelphia Eagles, an American football team, said their star quarterback Jalen Hurts has a blood clot in his calf. A blood clot is a lump of thickened blood inside a vein.
Scans showed the clot had moved, so the team ruled him out of Sunday's game and gave no date for his return (source).
What does this mean for Hurts, for his team and for sport? What happens next? And what should people like this page's readers take from it: athletes, active people, people who travel a lot, and anyone who has had pain in a leg?
In plain words: Eagles — Philadelphia's professional American football team; quarterback — the player who throws the ball; blood clot — a lump of thickened blood inside a vein; Panthers — Carolina Panthers, American football team; ESPN — a big American sports TV channel; NBC Sports — the sports news arm of a US network; National Football League — the top professional American football league; injured reserve — list of injured players out for several games
A bruised calf plus a long trip is how a star athlete's clot was found; check your own legs.
Who should do what
Runners and gym-goers: Skip the next hard workout if one calf aches after a hit, and get it scanned first.
Frequent travellers: Before your next trip, plan stops every one to two hours; ask your doctor first if you had a clot.
Fantasy football players: Before Sunday's games, choose a different quarterback; Hurts has no return date.
What not to do: Do not massage or walk off a swollen calf, and do not wait if breathing turns hard; call emergency services.
A sore calf after a knock or a trip is not just a strain. Several of the AIs noted that clots can feel like a pulled muscle, and about half of people with a deep clot feel nothing.
The danger is a clot reaching the lungs. Check both calves tonight, October 15: if one is swollen, warm, red or tender, get an ultrasound by Friday; if not, keep moving and watch it.
Long trips raise the risk a little. On any trip over four hours, by car or plane, walk every one to two hours and flex your ankles; if you have had a clot, ask your doctor before you leave.
This is what most of the 10 AIs advise. Each AI explains it in its own words below.
What the world's 10 leading AIs think
They agree
9 of 10: a swollen, warm calf needs an ultrasound.
They split
Z.ai sees a one-week absence; Claude and Kimi expect weeks or more.
Not obvious
No one showed the flight moved it; the recheck was already planned.
What to watch
If the Eagles say Hurts needs blood thinners, expect weeks or months out.
Nearly all ten agree on the medical core. The clot is superficial, meaning close to the skin, which is usually milder than a deep-vein clot. The Wednesday scan showing it had moved is what stopped Hurts. Most also agree that blood thinners, medicine that keeps clots from growing, would mean no contact football.
They split on how long he will be out. Z.ai and Gemini allow a quick return of a week or two if the clot is only watched. Claude, Kimi, ChatGPT and DeepSeek say weeks or months if thinners are needed. ChatGPT and DeepSeek note that some higher-risk surface clots get about 45 days of treatment, though no decision has been announced. Claude guesses a return only after the November bye week.
They also split on cause. Some blame the cleat hit on October 4, some the flight to London, and a few the flight home. ChatGPT and Claude say nobody has shown either did it. Fantasy advice splits too: one says pick up McKee, another says do not.
For ordinary readers the answers converge. A calf that is swollen, warm, red or tender after a knock or a long trip needs a same-day or same-week ultrasound. Sudden breathlessness or chest pain is an emergency. On trips over four hours, walk and flex the ankles every hour or two.
They split: Z.ai sees a one-week absence; Claude and Kimi expect weeks or more. What settles the dispute: The Eagles' treatment announcement will show how long he is out.
No clear gap: AIs from the USA and China gave the same medical advice and differed only in depth.
What is confirmed and what is not
The company says so Hurts' clot is superficial, near the skin, and has moved.
The AIs' conclusion Blood thinners usually mean no contact football until treatment ends.
Not known yet The flight to London caused the clot to move.
The AIs read 60 sources
Ask any AI yourself
I have a sore, warm calf after a long flight. What signs mean I need an ultrasound today?
Who wins, who loses: Backup Tanner McKee gains a start; Eagles bettors and fantasy owners lose.
The final answer, by Claude Opus
Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Under each answer: its model — the exact version of the AI. Tap an answer to read it.
1ChatGPTUSA8.3Some surface-vein clots require 45 days of blood thinners
Check your leg today, October 15, runners and travelers: if one calf is unusually painful, swollen, warm or red, seek medical assessment promptly; if not, keep moving during long journeys ([CDC](cdc.gov)). If you develop sudden breathlessness, chest pain or fainting, call 911 immediately ([CDC](cdc.gov)).
Hurts's clot is described as superficial, meaning it affects a vein near the skin and is generally less dangerous than a deep-vein clot; importantly, the reported 'movement' does not establish that it traveled to his lungs ([Cleveland Clinic](my.clevelandclinic.org), [Eagles statement](philadelphiaeagles.com)).
For Hurts, the crucial next question is whether the clot has extended toward deeper veins: higher-risk superficial clots can require 45 days of blood-thinning treatment, although his doctors have announced no such decision ([Cleveland Clinic](consultqd.clevelandclinic.org), [Eagles](philadelphiaeagles.com)).
Blood thinners increase bleeding risks in contact sports, potentially making his absence much longer than one game ([NHS](nhs.uk)).
Philadelphia, already 2–3 after three consecutive defeats, must now depend on Tanner McKee, who has just two previous starts and 597 career passing yards; injuries elsewhere in the offense add uncertainty ([Reuters](reuters.com), [NFL](nfl.com)).
Watch for the medical treatment decision before assuming Hurts can return: the Eagles have provided no timetable, and signing another experienced quarterback remains a possibility rather than a confirmed move ([Eagles](philadelphiaeagles.com), [NBC Sports](nbcsports.com)).
Athletes should remember that blood clots can resemble ordinary muscle strains, so persistent or unexplained leg symptoms deserve medical attention rather than another hard workout ([American Society of Hematology](ashpublications.org)).
On journeys exceeding four hours, whether flying or driving, walk every one to two hours, move your ankles regularly, and ask a doctor about extra precautions if you have previously experienced a clot ([CDC](cdc.gov)).
Model: GPT-6 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Extra high · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Tanner McKee will throw at least two touchdown passes in the Philadelphia Eagles' regular-season game against the Carolina Panthers on October 18, 2026, as recorded in the ESPN box score. — 40% chance by Oct 18, 2026
2ClaudeUSA8.3Doctors found Hurts' clot in London, let him play — then it moved
Expect Hurts to miss weeks, not one game: treatment for a clot like his is often blood thinners (medicine that keeps a clot from growing), doctors say the usual rule is no tackle football while on them, and my bet is he comes back only after the Eagles' week off that follows the November 8 Giants game (nbcsports.com, heavy.com, philadelphiaeagles.com).
The twist is the timeline: doctors found the clot right after the team's flight to London, still cleared him to play, and only a scan back home showed it had moved (nbcsports.com).
For the rest of us, a clot just under the skin usually clears in a few weeks but can spread into deep veins, about half of people with a deep clot feel nothing, and the federal health agency lists a recent injury (he took a cleat to the calf on October 4) and trips over four hours as risks, though nobody has shown his flight caused it (my.clevelandclinic.org, cdc.gov, nbcsports.com, athlonsports.com).
For Eagles fans, the team is 2-3 after three straight losses, and Tanner McKee gets the first start of his career in a game that matters, backed only by first-year player Cole Payton, because the club cut veteran Andy Dalton six days earlier, on October 9, and keeps no spare quarterback on its reserve squad (sports.yahoo.com, nbcsports.com, inquirer.com, nbcsports.com).
Bookmakers swung five points, from making the Eagles slight favorites to expecting them to lose by three or four, and Dalton, the obvious fix, is weighing offers from several teams (fantasylife.com, nbcsports.com).
Across the sport, clots cost months, not days: Carolina lineman Taylor Moton, out since summer with clots in his lungs, practiced fully Wednesday a couple of weeks after stopping blood thinners, and lineman Billy Price retired in 2024 citing the bleeding risk of staying on them (cbssports.com).
Check both calves tonight, Thursday, October 15, if you are an athlete, a runner or anyone whose leg still aches after a knock or a long trip: if one leg is swollen, warm, red or tender for no clear reason, call a doctor by Friday and ask about an ultrasound scan; if not, keep moving and keep watching (cdc.gov, my.clevelandclinic.org).
Get emergency help at once for sudden trouble breathing, chest pain that worsens with a deep breath, a racing heart, coughing up blood or fainting, because those can mean a clot has reached the lungs (cdc.gov).
On flights over four hours the risk is small, roughly one clot per 4,700 to 6,000 passenger flights, but walk around every one to two hours, flex your ankles, and see your doctor before you go if you have had a clot before (cdc.gov, cdc.gov).
Model: Claude Opus 5.5 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Max · searched the internet
Its own forecast: The Eagles move Jalen Hurts to injured reserve (the list that keeps a player out for at least four games), as shown in the team's transactions on ESPN or NFL.com, on or before October 31, 2026. — 40% chance by Oct 31, 2026
3KimiChina7.7Philadelphia's season now rests on a quarterback with no meaningful snaps
The key point: “superficial” is usually less dangerous than a deep-vein clot, but a moving clot is a stop-now signal, not a play-through injury (Cleveland Clinic; ESPN). Doctors first said activity and mobility were safe in London, then Wednesday night’s scan changed the plan; the fear is a clot reaching the lungs, which CDC says needs immediate care.
For Philadelphia this is bigger than one Sunday: Tanner McKee’s two starts were rest-the-starters finales and he has never taken a meaningful regular-season snap, while Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith were already hurt and the team had lost three straight (NBC News; NBC Sports).
Sport-wide, past pro DVT/PE cases averaged months away, though most athletes returned; superficial clots are different, but blood thinners usually mean no contact until doctors say treatment is done (NIH study).
Act today, October 16: fans, runners, flyers and anyone with calf pain — if one leg is swollen, warm, red, tender or cramping, get a same-day ultrasound; if chest pain, racing heart, fainting or sudden breathlessness hits, call local emergency help. If you have no symptoms, keep moving on trips over four hours and do heel-toe calf pumps; if symptoms appear, do not “walk it off.”
Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Tanner McKee is sacked at least three times in the Eagles-Panthers game — 44% chance by Oct 19, 2026
4MiMoChina7.4Clot found Saturday, Hurts played Sunday, it moved Wednesday
For an ordinary person the lesson is medical, not sporting: a knock to the leg can quietly grow a blood clot, and only a scan caught this one.
A hospital doctor says such clots sit close to the skin and are less dangerous than deep-vein clots (a clot in a deep leg vein), but they can spread deeper and reach the lungs, and a long flight after a leg injury is a high-risk mix; small ones often heal with warm compresses and pain pills, bigger ones may need blood thinners — medicines that stop clots growing — which no player can take while playing (si.com; newsweek.com).
For people who bet on games or play fantasy football, the market has already moved: within hours Philadelphia went from a team expected to win by one and a half points to one expected to lose by three and a half (si.com).
Backup Tanner McKee starts on Sunday; he has 597 career passing yards, and Philadelphia's attack ranks 31st of 32 teams in yards per game (newsweek.com; espn.com).
Book a leg scan before Sunday, people limping on a sore calf: if the pain started with a knock and the skin feels hot or swollen, ask a doctor for an ultrasound scan today; if nothing hurts, just stand and walk every hour on long flights.
Fans, expect a slow, run-heavy Eagles game — fantasy owners should pick up a different quarterback rather than McKee (espn.com).
Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro (the app showed it) · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Quarterback Andy Dalton signs with an NFL team other than the Eagles by Friday, October 23, 2026 — 55% chance by Oct 23, 2026
5GeminiUSA7.3Philadelphia cut backup Andy Dalton a day after Hurts's calf complaint
Combining a kick to the lower leg with a long airplane flight can turn a minor bruise into a moving blood threat even in a 28-year-old star athlete (tsn.ca, brobible.com).
Hurts was stepped on by a shoe spike on October 4, had a surface-level clot found by a sound-wave scan in London on October 10, and still threw 40 passes on October 11 before his flight home helped the clot move (philadelphiaeagles.com, foxsports.com).
If doctors can calm the vein with warm pads and swelling medicine, he misses only a week or two, but if the clot reaches a deep vein and requires blood-thinning medicine — drugs that stop blood from clotting and make contact sports unsafe — his season could end (brobible.com).
For the 2–3 Eagles, who have lost three straight games and have top runners and catchers Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith nursing upper-leg muscle pulls, this crisis hits days after they cut 38-year-old backup passer Andy Dalton on October 9 — one day after Hurts first reported calf pain (nfl.com, profootballrumors.com, nfltraderumors.co).
That leaves third-year backup Tanner McKee, who has started only two pro games, and rookie Cole Payton, which drove bookmakers to slash Philadelphia's expected winning margin for October 18 from 6.5 points to 1.5 points (foxsports.com, actionnetwork.com).
Across pro sports, clearing a player to fly across the ocean and play with a known clot will push leagues to tighten overseas flight checks for bruised athletes (nbcsports.com).
Check your lower legs today, October 15, if you are a traveler or active person who recently took a blow to the calf: if your leg feels warm, swollen, or tender before or after a trip, ask a doctor for a sound-wave vein scan right away; if not, walk the aisle every hour on flights to keep blood flowing (brobible.com).
Watch Philadelphia's roster moves by 4:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, October 17, if you are a football fan or fantasy player: if the Eagles re-sign Andy Dalton or place Hurts on the four-game injured list, plan for at least a month without Hurts; if not, expect him to have a real chance to return on October 26 against Dallas (nbcsports.com, cbssports.com).
Model: Gemini 4 Argon (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Jalen Hurts will take zero snaps in the Philadelphia Eagles' regular-season home game against the Dallas Cowboys on October 26, 2026, as settled by the ESPN box score. — 65% chance by Oct 27, 2026
6MetaUSA7.1Oct 4 cleat, London flight, moving clot by Oct 15
A surface clot that moves is why Hurts is out with no date, not the knock itself. He took a cleat to the calf in the Rams loss Oct 4, got an ultrasound after the London flight and walkthrough, was cleared to play the Jaguars 19-17 loss Sunday, then the Wednesday night recheck showed movement so the team ruled him out vs Panthers and gave no return date.
A moving lump of thick blood can travel and block flow to lungs, causing a pulmonary embolism, stroke or heart attack.
For the Eagles, 2-3 and trying to snap a three-game slide against 2-2 Carolina at Lincoln Financial Field, this means 26-year-old Tanner McKee with 597 yards, 5 touchdowns and 1 pick in six career games and two Week 18 spot starts gets his first meaningful start, facing a Panthers secondary missing its two starting perimeter cornerbacks.
If doctors choose blood thinners, which a lot of times is the treatment, Hurts cannot take contact while on them, which is why the team said they are determining the appropriate course of treatment and why athletes and frequent flyers should note that long sits after a bruise raise clot risk.
Watch your calf tonight, travelers and athletes, if it is swollen, warm or tender after a knock or a flight call your clinic Friday; if not, keep moving, drink water and mention it at your next visit.
Fans should expect a run-heavy plan Sunday with McKee and rookie Cole Payton as the only quarterbacks after Andy Dalton was cut last week. People with a prior clot should ask about compression socks and moving every hour on flights longer than four hours.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Eagles announce Jalen Hurts will also miss Week 7 and is placed on reserve/non-football injury list — 62% chance by Oct 22, 2026
7Z.aiChina7.1A small leg clot moved — and an NFL game changed
A small blood clot in Jalen Hurts' calf moved, and that is why the Eagles have ruled him out of Sunday's game. For most active people, a superficial clot like this is not the dangerous deep-vein kind, but it still needs a quick medical check and often simple treatment such as warm compresses and keeping the leg raised.
The lesson for anyone who plays sport or travels a lot is simple: if you have new pain or swelling in a leg after a knock or a long flight, get it checked rather than hoping it will go away.
This changes things for Hurts, his team and for sport in a direct way: Hurts loses a start, the Eagles lose their best player for at least one week, and backup Tanner McKee gets a chance to show what he can do.
For teams and athletes, it is a reminder that blood clots can hit even the fittest people, especially after long travel or dehydration, so coaches and trainers should not ignore leg pain that does not improve. For fans and people who follow betting, the Eagles' chances this week have dropped; oddsmakers now make the Panthers a 3.5-point favorite in Philadelphia.
What to do now depends on who you are: if you are an athlete or an active person with new leg pain, especially after a knock or a long flight, get an ultrasound today, and if you feel short of breath or chest pain, go to an emergency room right away because those can be signs of a clot in the lung.
If you are a fan, check the Eagles' injury report before Sunday's game on October 18 to see who else is out. If you travel a lot, take breaks, wear loose clothes, and move your calves every couple of hours.
Model: GLM-5.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Deep Think Max (deepest thinking) · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Jalen Hurts starts at quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles on or before November 1, 2026 — 60% chance by Nov 1, 2026
8GrokUSA7.0A moving calf clot flips Eagles from favorites to underdogs
A small blood clot that moves inside a leg vein can force a healthy young athlete off the field for weeks because contact sports raise the chance of the clot growing or traveling, and treatment that stops clotting also makes hits far more dangerous.
Doctors call this a superficial clot when it sits in a vein near the skin rather than a deeper one that can reach the lungs; the Eagles said the clot was still small and superficial, yet the movement seen on the October 14 ultrasound was enough to keep Hurts out indefinitely while they choose treatment. Ordinary people who feel sudden calf pain, swelling, or warmth after a bump, a long flight, or days of sitting should get it checked the same way, because even a non-deep clot can worsen and the early test is a simple ultrasound.
Eagles fans and anyone who bets on the team now face a different Sunday: Tanner McKee, a third-year player with only two prior starts in already-decided games, will take the snaps, the line has swung from the Eagles favored by 1.5 points to the Panthers favored by 3.5, and the total points expected has dropped.
Travelers and active people who log long hours in seats or who have had calf pain before should treat any new leg discomfort as a reason to call a doctor rather than stretch it out, because the same sequence—injury or immobility, then a clot that later moves—appeared here after a cleat hit on October 4 and a flight to London.
Check your own calf today if it has hurt since a recent trip or knock: if it is swollen, warm, or getting worse, get an ultrasound before the weekend; if it is simply sore from exercise and nothing else, rest it and watch for change. Fans watching Sunday should expect a lower-scoring game run by a quarterback who has thrown only 597 career yards and whose previous meaningful start produced 241 yards in a loss.
Model: Grok 4.7 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Expert · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Tanner McKee starts at least two more Eagles games after October 18 — 55% chance by Nov 2, 2026
9DeepSeekChina5.5Blood clot in calf forces Eagles to bench Jalen Hurts indefinitely
For the ordinary person, this means the Eagles' star quarterback is out for at least Sunday's game against the Panthers, and backup Tanner McKee will start in his place1. The team has not given a return date, so fans should expect McKee to run the offense for the foreseeable future2.
For people who travel a lot or sit for long periods, this is a reminder that blood clots can happen even in athletes, and leg pain that doesn't go away should be checked by a doctor3. Active people and athletes should know that a calf injury can be more serious than a simple bruise, and that playing through pain can delay diagnosis4.
For anyone who has had leg pain, the key takeaway is to get it looked at early, because a clot that moves can become dangerous5. What happens next depends on how the clot responds to treatment; the Eagles will likely monitor Hurts with follow-up scans and could sign a veteran quarterback if they need more depth6.
If Hurts is cleared quickly, he could return in a few weeks; if the clot requires blood thinners, he could miss a month or more7. If you are a fan with tickets to Sunday's game, expect to see McKee at quarterback; if you are a fantasy football player, you should pick up McKee or another available starter, and if you have leg pain, call your doctor today.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): DeepThink (thinks before answering) · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Jalen Hurts will not take a snap in an NFL game between October 16 and November 14, 2026 — 70% chance by Nov 14, 2026
10QwenChina5.0Surface clots heal in weeks, but movement forced the star's benching.
For ordinary fans, a common leg bump can create a surface blood clot that usually heals in a few weeks. However, this benching proves that even healthy athletes must stop playing when scans show the lump moving, keeping it from reaching deep, dangerous veins.
This changes things for parents of young athletes who ignore calf pain after hard hits. It shows that persistent leg aches need a medical scan, not just ice, to rule out shifting lumps.
Check your legs today, October 16, frequent travellers: if you feel a hard lump, get a scan, but if it is just a bruise, walk often. This simple habit keeps blood flowing and stops surface clots from growing deeper.
Model: Qwen3.8-Max (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.
(License CC BY 4.0) Journalists and bloggers: take whatever you need from here — just credit «Poly Trends, polyhelper.ai».
More
10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 10 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. In all, 16 AIs were asked and 14 answered; the page shows the 5 strongest from each country.
Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.
We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.
Mistral (Large 4 or Medium 3.5), ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek and Claude Opus read the answers without knowing who wrote them.
Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by public rankings of AIs (LMArena, Artificial Analysis and others) — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed — and every judge gets its own order, so no answer is first for everyone.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, insight beyond the obvious, usefulness and clarity; the score is the average of the judges, with strict and generous judges put on one scale.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own AI's and its own company's answers too, and every mark counts: the answers carry only letters, so no judge knows which one is its own.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.
Judge by judge: Mistral — USA ahead by 1.1; ChatGPT (USA) — a tie (USA ahead by only 0.1); Meta (USA) — USA ahead by 1.9; Gemini (USA) — USA ahead by 1.1; MiMo (China) — USA ahead by 0.9; Qwen (China) — USA ahead by 1.5; Z.ai (China) — USA ahead by 0.8; Kimi (China) — USA ahead by 1.3; DeepSeek (China) — USA ahead by 1.0; Claude Opus (USA) — USA ahead by 0.9.
Who scored highest
#
AI
Side
Mistral
ChatGPT
Meta
Gemini
MiMo
Qwen
Z.ai
Kimi
DeepSeek
Claude Opus
Score
1
ChatGPT
USA
8.0
9.0
8.3
8.5
8.3
9.8
7.3
7.8
8.3
8.3
8.3
2
Claude
USA
7.8
8.0
7.8
9.0
8.0
9.8
7.0
8.8
8.5
8.5
8.3
3
Kimi
China
6.8
8.3
7.3
7.8
7.5
9.0
7.5
7.5
7.8
7.5
7.7
4
MiMo
China
7.0
7.8
6.3
7.3
7.3
8.5
7.0
7.5
7.5
7.3
7.4
5
Gemini
USA
6.8
6.3
7.3
8.3
7.3
9.5
6.8
7.3
7.0
7.0
7.3
6
Meta
USA
6.3
6.5
5.5
8.0
7.3
8.8
6.5
6.5
8.0
6.5
7.1
7
Z.ai
China
7.0
7.8
5.8
7.3
7.3
7.8
6.3
7.0
7.5
6.3
7.1
8
Grok
USA
6.3
7.5
6.8
7.3
5.3
8.8
6.8
6.8
7.8
6.3
7.0
9
DeepSeek
China
5.3
6.0
4.3
6.5
5.3
6.3
5.5
5.5
6.8
4.5
5.5
10
Qwen
China
4.5
5.0
4.0
6.3
5.3
6.8
4.5
4.5
5.0
4.8
5.0
Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their average. Equal scores share a place.
Which models answer
The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan, the kind people buy for themselves (up to about $40 a month), or free, with web search on, once.
Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.
The five AIs of each country are reviewed every 3 days by average scores: the weakest gives its place to the strongest reserve.
AI
Model
Thinking mode
Plan
How we know the model
Claude
Claude Opus 5.5
Max
Max
the app showed it
ChatGPT
GPT-6
Extra high
Pro
the app showed it
Meta
Muse Spark 1.3
Thinking
free
from the app's help page
Grok
Grok 4.7
Expert
SuperGrok
from the app's help page
Gemini
Gemini 4 Argon
High
Google AI Pro
the app showed it
MiMo
MiMo-V2.6-Pro
free
the app showed it
Qwen
Qwen3.8-Max
Thinking
free
the app showed it
Z.ai
GLM-5.3
Deep Think Max (deepest thinking)
free
from the app's help page
Kimi
Kimi K3
High
Pro ($39)
the app showed it
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash
DeepThink (thinks before answering)
free
from the app's help page
Mistral · AI judge
Mistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5
Think
Free
the app doesn't say
Claude Opus · AI judge
Claude Opus 5.5
Max
Max
the app showed it
Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.
The forecast · result on Nov 14, 2026
Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability
Will Jalen Hurts play in a game again by November 14?
The exact question every AI answered: Will Jalen Hurts take at least one snap (play at least one down) in an official National Football League game between October 16, 2026 and November 14, 2026?
The result comes on Nov 14, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. Check: his game log on ESPN (https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/4040715/jalen-hurts) or the official game summaries on NFL.com. Only actual time on the field in a regular-season game counts. Being listed as active, warming up, practicing or being 'expected to play' does not count. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.
together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer
0%25%50%75%100%
Five AIs from the USA together · 36%
Meta55%
Gemini45%
Grok35%
Claude28%
ChatGPT25%
Five AIs from China together · 40%
Qwen80%
Z.ai60%
Kimi30%
DeepSeek30%
MiMo25%
All ten AIs together · 38%
Poly Index
The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.
Five AIs from the USA36%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Geminiall 5 answered
Five AIs from China40%MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 5 answered
All ten AIs38%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 10 answered
How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.
Each AI's own forecast (10)
AI
Forecast
Checked on
Chance
Claude
The Eagles move Jalen Hurts to injured reserve (the list that keeps a player out for at least four games), as shown in the team's transactions on ESPN or NFL.com, on or before October 31, 2026.
Oct 31, 2026
40%
ChatGPT
Tanner McKee will throw at least two touchdown passes in the Philadelphia Eagles' regular-season game against the Carolina Panthers on October 18, 2026, as recorded in the ESPN box score.
Oct 18, 2026
40%
Meta
Eagles announce Jalen Hurts will also miss Week 7 and is placed on reserve/non-football injury list
Oct 22, 2026
62%
Grok
Tanner McKee starts at least two more Eagles games after October 18
Nov 2, 2026
55%
Gemini
Jalen Hurts will take zero snaps in the Philadelphia Eagles' regular-season home game against the Dallas Cowboys on October 26, 2026, as settled by the ESPN box score.
Oct 27, 2026
65%
MiMo
Quarterback Andy Dalton signs with an NFL team other than the Eagles by Friday, October 23, 2026
Oct 23, 2026
55%
Qwen
Jalen Hurts plays his first game back from the blood clot
Nov 9, 2026
75%
Z.ai
Jalen Hurts starts at quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles on or before November 1, 2026
Nov 1, 2026
60%
Kimi
Tanner McKee is sacked at least three times in the Eagles-Panthers game
Oct 19, 2026
44%
DeepSeek
Jalen Hurts will not take a snap in an NFL game between October 16 and November 14, 2026
Nov 14, 2026
70%
Each own forecast is checked on its own date.
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