From the trend: Tesla plans next-generation Roadster reveal after almost a decade of delays
Will news report anything new on Tesla's long-delayed sports car by Sunday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will news report anything new on Tesla's long-delayed sports car by Sunday?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 9 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳Kimi🇨🇳Qwen🇨🇳Z.ai🇨🇳MiMo🇺🇸Meta🇺🇸Nova🇺🇸Gemini🇨🇳DeepSeek
ChatGPT: Tonight's demonstration should produce new facts, and Reuters is already covering the event.
No — 1 AIYou are here
🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury
Nemotron + Mercury: Big outlets already covered announcement; new facts need time to emerge.
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: Reuters, AP or BBC News
The answer is due on Oct 18, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Reuters, AP or the BBC publish a report of a NEW concrete development in this story — «Tesla plans next-generation Roadster reveal after almost a decade of delays» — by 2026-10-18T18:00Z? Counts: a new event (a decision, an action, an official statement with new facts). Does not count: a repeat, a tribute or an opinion about the first report.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 2 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 64 of the book: 3753651eb3e49ee7e17b80cd2886aa7a6889bedf96dafa88a55da177a086bf96
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-16-032614Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-16-032614Z.txt.ots
- The first 64 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 64 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-16-032614Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.