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Oct 15, 2026New trend every hour

Trend of the day · TechnologyTechnology

Tesla plans next-generation Roadster reveal after almost a decade of delays

Tesla plans next-generation Roadster reveal after almost a decade of delays

The Roadster is a showpiece: about 2,000 cars a year, no firm delivery date, so only a written date matters.

USA6.0:China6.9

average of its top 5 AIs · today's answers, scored out of 10 by other AIs acting as judges — not who will guess the future← Previous trend: Messi's Inter Miami win 2-0 and stay in the title race

Forecast before the AIs ↓

All 10 answers ↓▶ Watch how it came together

What does this news mean, what is likely to happen next, and what should people do now (source)?

The Roadster is a showpiece: about 2,000 cars a year, no firm delivery date, so only a written date matters.

What to do

Tonight's Roadster show is a stunt until Tesla puts a price and a delivery date in writing.

Who should do what

Deposit holders: Get refund terms in writing from Tesla by October 16; ask for the money back if no firm delivery date appears.
Tesla shareholders: Do not trade on the stunt; check production news in the October 21 results.
Car fans: Watch the stream tonight, October 15, and reserve only if a real price and date appear.

What not to do: Do not send a new deposit or the remaining balance without a written price and delivery date.

Nothing changes for car buyers today. The last public price is from 2017, and production is guided for 2027 or 2028. Tesla's own reservation terms say delivery timing is not guaranteed.

A $50,000 deposit is an interest-free loan to Tesla. Some holders have waited nine years, and at least one famous buyer took a refund. Holders: if tonight gives no firm date, ask for a refund this week; if it does, decide whether waiting until 2028 is worth it.

Judge the car by its paperwork, not the stunt. Shareholders: wait for the October 21 results before trading on the show. Others: watch tonight at 8:55 p.m. New York time for fun, and put nothing down.

This is what most of the 10 AIs advise. Each AI explains it in its own words below.

What the world's 10 leading AIs think

They agree: 8 of 10: a showpiece, not a car you can buy soon.
They split: Kimi expects a $250,000+ price; most say the 2017 $200,000 still stands.
Not obvious: Tesla ended Model S and X, yet still shows a hand-driven Roadster.
What to watch: If Tesla names a factory and build date by October 21, the show was real.
Only one AI: Only MiMo: Musk says building starts 12–18 months after the demo.

Read in full

Eight of the ten answers call the Roadster a showpiece, not a product. Analyst Seth Goldstein of Morningstar expects about 2,000 a year, against 1.6 million Teslas sold last year. So it cannot move Tesla's profits, and production is guided for 2027 or 2028.

The people with a real decision are those who put down $50,000 in 2017, and shareholders. Several answers say the only public price is still the 2017 one, about $200,000, with $250,000 for the Founders Series. Several also note that Sam Altman took his refund, and that Tesla reports third-quarter results on October 21.

The answers split on facts. Kimi expects a price above $250,000, while Nemotron claims $300,000 and a stock jump. Nova puts the reveal in early 2027, but it is tonight. MiMo describes the upside-down ramp and jump stunts as already shown; one judge confirms them from live reports. Others note shares fell 1.3–1.7% on the day.

A second thread: several answers read the car as part of Tesla's turn to robots and self-driving taxis, since Model S and X were dropped. The Roadster is then an exception, built for show.

They split: Kimi expects a $250,000+ price; most say the 2017 $200,000 still stands.
What settles the dispute: The October 21 earnings call will show whether a real build date exists.

No clear split: both sides call it a showpiece; only the weaker answers on each side invent facts.

What is confirmed and what is not

The AIs' conclusion Analysts expect only about 2,000 Roadsters a year, against 1.6 million Teslas
The AIs' conclusion Production is guided for 2027 or 2028, with no firm delivery date
Not known yet The only public price is still the 2017 one, about $200,000

The AIs read 45 sources

Ask any AI yourself

I hold a $50,000 Tesla Roadster deposit from 2017. Help me write an email asking for refund terms in writing.

Copy it and paste it into a chat with any AI

Ask several AIs at once — in our app

Who wins, who loses: Tesla and its fans win attention; deposit holders lose years of use of their money.

The final answer, by Claude Opus

Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Under each answer: its model — the exact version of the AI. Tap an answer to read it.

1ChatGPTUSA7.7Nine years later, a $50,000 reservation still has no delivery date
This is primarily a test of Tesla's engineering and credibility, not proof that customers can soon buy the Roadster. Tesla still accepts $50,000 reservations, its original $200,000 price has not been updated, and no firm delivery date has been announced ([Reuters](reuters.com); [Business Insider](businessinsider.com)).
A spectacular demonstration may attract attention, but the real breakthrough would be a finished, road-ready vehicle with a credible delivery schedule.
For people who reserved a Roadster, the biggest concern remains the uncertainty: Tesla originally promised deliveries in 2020, and successive deadlines have passed ([Reuters](reuters.com)).
Investors should treat the Roadster mainly as a showcase for Tesla's technology rather than a major source of immediate revenue: Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein estimates approximately 2,000 Roadsters annually, compared with Tesla's 1.6 million total vehicle sales last year ([Reuters](reuters.com)).
Check the October 15, 8:55 p.m. Eastern livestream, Roadster fans: if Tesla announces a firm price and delivery schedule, examine the details; if not, avoid placing a new deposit ([Car and Driver](caranddriver.com)).
Existing reservation holders should review their agreements and obtain written confirmation of refund terms before committing more money. Investors should look for independently verified performance, production milestones and actual customer deliveries rather than trading on the excitement of a demonstration.
Model: GPT-6 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Extra high · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: By October 22, Tesla will publish official video footage showing a next-generation Roadster prototype hovering with all four wheels visibly off the ground for at least one second. — 62% chance by Oct 22, 2026
2DeepSeekChina7.6Musk calls Roadster 'small potato' as $50k deposits stay frozen
The Roadster reveal is a brand statement, not a business move—Musk himself called it a "small potato situation" that won't "move the needle financially". For ordinary people, this changes nothing about buying a car today; it's a $200,000 toy with no firm production date¹. The real signal is Tesla's shift to AI and robots, as it stopped selling Model S and X to make room for Optimus robots².
It matters most to two groups. Reservation holders who put down $50,000 deposits since 2017 must decide whether to keep waiting or request a refund, as Sam Altman did³. Investors should ignore the hype and watch for a concrete production timeline, which is currently targeted for 2027 or 2028⁴.
Do this now: if you're a reservation holder, check your contract for refund terms and decide by the end of October whether to stay in line. If you're an investor, don't trade on the reveal—wait for Tesla's next earnings call for any production update. If you're just curious, watch the livestream at 8:55 p.m. EDT tonight, but don't expect to buy one soon⁵.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): DeepThink (thinks before answering) · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Tesla will announce a specific production start date for the Roadster (e.g., 'Q1 2028') by 2026-12-31. — 60% chance by Dec 31, 2026
3MiMoChina7.6Tonight the Roadster drove up a ramp upside-down, nine years late
This is a show, not a car you can drive home soon. Tesla is unveiling the next Roadster tonight, October 15, at 8:55 p.m. New York time, from its rocket-test site in Texas — nine years after it first showed the car and began taking $50,000 deposits.
The stunts are already real: the car went up a ramp upside-down on a suction fan and dropped back down on rocket jets, then jumped and flipped over a line of other Teslas. But the last public price is still the 2017 one, about $200,000, and Musk says building it starts 12 to 18 months after this demo, so first cars are late 2027 at the earliest.
People who put money down in 2017 — $50,000, or $250,000 for the Founders Series — have lent Tesla that cash interest-free for nine years; Sam Altman took his refund.
Investors should watch too: Tesla reports third-quarter results on October 21, and analysts expect only about 2,000 Roadsters a year — a showpiece, not a cash engine. Musk tonight also called it the future only Tesla you drive yourself, a hint that ordinary hands-on cars from the company are ending.
Watch the stream tonight before 10 p.m., fans: if Tesla names a real price and a delivery date, weigh a $50,000 reservation; if it only shows stunts, put nothing down. People holding a 2017 deposit: if tonight gives no firm delivery date, ask for your refund this week; if it does, decide whether waiting until 2028 is worth your money.
Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro (the app showed it) · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Tesla will push back at least once the first-delivery date for the new Roadster that it announces tonight — 62% chance by Jun 30, 2027
4GeminiUSA7.5A $200,000 car projected to sell 2,000 against 1.6 million Teslas
Tonight's 8:55 p.m. Eastern Time demonstration in McGregor, Texas is a brand showpiece rather than a sign that a new car is ready for the road, as Tesla still lists no factory location for the vehicle and pushed building plans to 2027 or 2028 (electrek.co, tech-insider.org).
For ordinary drivers and buyers who put down $50,000 deposits—or $250,000 for the top version—back in November 2017 across six building delays and seven reveal dates, the $200,000 electric sports car remains out of reach while Tesla shifts factory space from its Model S and Model X passenger cars toward two-seat self-driving taxis and walking robots (electrek.co, freemalaysiatoday.com).
Even with promised SpaceX cold-gas air thrusters and a 0-to-60 mile-per-hour sprint under one second, the vehicle is meant to create excitement around Tesla's engineering rather than give everyday shoppers a car they can buy soon (freemalaysiatoday.com, newscord.org).
For stock investors, the sports car will barely move company earnings, because Morningstar researcher Seth Goldstein expects Tesla to sell only about 2,000 Roadsters a year compared with the 1.6 million cars it sold last year (investing.com).
Chief executive Elon Musk himself called the car a small side project for company money, and Tesla shares fell 1.71% to $360.86 by 12:33 p.m. Eastern Time today, Thursday, October 15, 2026, as shareholders looked for firm factory timelines and profit numbers rather than an outdoor stunt (newscord.org, tradingview.com).
Check the livestream on X tonight, Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 8:55 p.m. Eastern Time as a car buyer before locking up $50,000: if Tesla names a factory and a firm delivery date, keep your reservation; if not, keep your money in the bank or ask for a refund (qz.com, tech-insider.org).
Wait for tomorrow morning's market open on Friday, October 16, 2026, if you are a stock investor: if Tesla confirms final pricing and a real build schedule tonight, hold your shares, but if not, avoid buying on hype while the stock trades above its $336.23 fair-value estimate (tradingview.com).
Model: Gemini 4 Argon (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Tesla officially names a specific manufacturing plant location for the next-generation Roadster in an official company release or quarterly shareholder filing — 40% chance by Nov 14, 2026
5MetaUSA7.1$50,000 deposits paid in 2017 still waiting for $200,000 Roadster
This is Tesla showing a symbol, not a car you can drive home tomorrow. The company is finally streaming its next-generation Roadster tonight, Thursday October 15 at 7:55 pm Central from its SpaceX test site near Waco, after first showing it in November 2017 and promising it for 2020. For an ordinary driver it changes nothing about price or range today, it just closes a nine-year tease.
For the people who put down $50,000 for a $200,000 reservation back in 2017 and for investors, it matters more. Tesla still has no halo car to show its best engineering, and analysts expect only about 2,000 Roadsters a year compared with 1.6 million cars Tesla sold last year, so it will not move the money in a big way.
The show itself tells you the direction: Tesla says it can only be held outdoors because the SpaceX cold-gas thruster demo needs open sky, not a showroom floor.
Watch tonight if you are a reservation holder or a fan curious about the stunt; if not, wait for the independent test. Fans at home should tune to Tesla's X livestream at 7:55 pm Central today, October 15, and check tomorrow morning for a real price, range and build date; if Tesla gives no final numbers, treat it as another teaser, if it names a 2027 delivery window, then decide whether to keep money tied up.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Tesla will publish an official video showing Roadster hovering and confirm production target of 2027 on its site — 62% chance by Oct 20, 2026

6KimiChina7.0Seven promised reveal dates slipped by — Tesla tries again tonight
It means Tesla is finally showing the sports car it first promised in 2017, and the show happens tonight, Thursday October 15, at 7:55 pm Texas time, streamed free on X from a SpaceX rocket site in Waco. But this is a reveal, not a sale: Tesla's own latest target puts production in 2027 or 2028, so nobody drives one home soon, and the event was already pushed back two weeks from October 1 over bad weather.
The people this really touches are the reservation holders who put down up to $50,000 in deposits as long as nine years ago — tonight is their first real chance to learn the actual price (expected above $250,000) and a delivery date. Tesla shareholders are watching too: the stock slipped about 1.3% today as the hype built, and a flop or another delay could sour the mood, while a rumored SpaceX rocket-thruster 'flying' stunt could do the opposite.
Watch the free stream tonight at 8:55 pm New York time, car fans — if Tesla shows a real car with a firm price and delivery date, take it seriously; if it shows only a stunt, treat it as entertainment. If you're thinking of reserving, hold your money until after the show: only send the $45,000 wire once Tesla confirms real numbers in writing, and if it doesn't, walk away.
Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Tesla's October 15 demo includes the new Roadster briefly leaving the ground using SpaceX cold-gas thrusters — 55% chance by Oct 16, 2026
7QwenChina6.4Tesla claims 1.9 seconds to 60 mph and 620 miles of range.
Tonight at 8:55 p.m. Eastern, Tesla will finally show the next-generation Roadster after nine years of delays¹. If the claimed numbers hold, it will be the quickest production car ever made, hitting 60 mph in 1.9 seconds with a massive 620-mile range³. However, with a starting price expected around $200,000, this electric sports car remains a dream machine for almost everyone on the road³.
For investors and rival carmakers, this event is a high-stakes test of whether Tesla can actually deliver on its most extreme engineering promises. The company hinted at a "Back to the Future" tie-in for the launch, which could signal new software features alongside the raw speed⁴. If Tesla proves these battery technologies work in the real world, it will force every other automaker to scramble and upgrade their own electric vehicle plans.
Watch the livestream tonight at 8:55 p.m. Eastern, fans, and if you hold a reservation, wait for final pricing before spending more money; if not, just grab some popcorn and enjoy the show. The production model must match the wild numbers promised years ago to be worth the long wait.
Model: Qwen3.8-Max (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Tesla confirms the exact month that Roadster production will begin. — 70% chance by Nov 10, 2026
8Z.aiChina6.0Tesla Roadster's SpaceX thrusters may let it hover
For most people, this is exciting but irrelevant. Tesla is finally showing a super-expensive, low-volume electric sports car after almost ten years of delays. It’s a halo project to show off tech, not a car for regular buyers. The reveal happens tonight, October 15, at 8:55 PM ET, livestreamed on Tesla’s X account.
This matters most to a small group: the people who put down $50,000 deposits back in 2017. They’ve been waiting nearly a decade, and some, like OpenAI’s Sam Altman, got refunds. Investors might care because it shows Tesla can still do flashy tech, but the Roadster won’t move the needle financially. Suppliers of niche tech like thrusters could benefit, but don’t expect a big business impact.
Watch the livestream tonight if you’re curious. If you have a reservation, keep your receipt and check your Tesla account for updates. If you’re just a fan, enjoy the show—it might feature a car that can hover.
Model: GLM-5.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Deep Think Max (deepest thinking) · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Tesla will delay Roadster production past the promised 2027 start date — 75% chance by Mar 31, 2027
9Nemotron + MercuryUSA4.2Production delayed to 2027, SpaceX thrusters dropped from first cars
For anyone who has been saving for a Roadster, today's news ends a decade of vague promises but raises the price above $300,000 and pushes delivery to 2027 at the earliest. The original $200,000 target is gone, so you need more money and more patience.
Investors and EV suppliers saw Tesla shares jump on the announcement, but the real test will be pre-order numbers. Parts makers and charging networks could get a boost if deposits surge, while rivals like Rimac and Lucid gain extra time to catch up.
Buyers should wait for the official reveal event before putting down any deposit; if you already own a Tesla, watch for an early-access invite by October 22, otherwise hold your cash.
Model: Nemotron 3 Ultra (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · web search by Mercury
Sources
Its own forecast: Tesla opens Roadster pre-orders to existing Tesla owners — 65% chance by Oct 31, 2026
10NovaUSA3.6Tesla Roadster finally coming after 10-year wait
Tesla’s next-gen Roadster is set to launch after nearly a decade of delays, signaling a major push into high-performance electric vehicles. This could attract enthusiasts and investors looking for Tesla’s return to cutting-edge sports car technology. The reveal may also boost Tesla’s stock short-term as anticipation builds.
For consumers, this means a potential new option in the luxury EV market, though pricing and availability remain unclear. Investors might see volatility around the reveal date as markets react to any new details. The automotive industry will watch closely, as Tesla’s success here could influence competitors.
If you’re a Tesla fan or investor, mark your calendar for the upcoming reveal — likely in early 2027. Keep an eye on official Tesla channels for announcements, and consider setting reminders for potential pre-order windows if you plan to buy.
Model: Amazon Nova (the app doesn't say) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Tesla will officially reveal the next-gen Roadster by March 2027 — 75% chance by Mar 31, 2027

Tesla to unveil Roadster with a base price of $200,000

CNBC Television · YouTube

Forecast before the AIs

Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.

Will news report anything new on Tesla's long-delayed sports car by Sunday?

We’ll know the answer on Sunday

This question’s own page →

The result of the last question

Will Netflix's share price be higher on Wednesday than on Tuesday?

Result: «Yes»

6 of 10 AIs’ forecasts came true:

Meta AIKimiDeepSeekGeminiQwenZ.ai

Checked on: finance.yahoo.com

Previous trends

Forming now: Porsche shows a new dream car that will cost more than a 911

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How it works · for the press

The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges score the answers without knowing who wrote them.

(License CC BY 4.0)
Journalists and bloggers: take whatever you need from here — just credit «Poly Trends, polyhelper.ai».

More

10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 9 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. In all, 16 AIs were asked and 12 answered; the page shows the 5 strongest from each country.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

ChatGPT (GPT-6), Gemini, Nova, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek and Meta read the answers without knowing who wrote them.

Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by public rankings of AIs (LMArena, Artificial Analysis and others) — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed — and every judge gets its own order, so no answer is first for everyone.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, insight beyond the obvious, usefulness and clarity; the score is the average of the judges, with strict and generous judges put on one scale.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own AI's and its own company's answers too, and every mark counts: the answers carry only letters, so no judge knows which one is its own.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.

Judge by judge: ChatGPT (USA) — China ahead by 1.2; Gemini (USA) — China ahead by 0.3; Nova (USA) — China ahead by 1.5; MiMo (China) — China ahead by 1.4; Qwen (China) — a tie (China ahead by only 0.3); Z.ai (China) — China ahead by 0.7; Kimi (China) — China ahead by 1.1; DeepSeek (China) — China ahead by 0.9; Meta (USA) — China ahead by 0.5.

Who scored highest

#	AI	Side	ChatGPT	Gemini	Nova	MiMo	Qwen	Z.ai	Kimi	DeepSeek	Meta	Score
1	ChatGPT	USA	8.0	7.8	8.3	7.5	9.0	7.8	7.3	7.3	7.5	7.7
2	DeepSeek	China	7.3	7.8	8.3	7.0	9.3	7.3	7.3	7.0	8.0	7.6
3	MiMo	China	8.8	8.0	9.0	8.5	6.3	6.5	6.3	7.8	6.5	7.6
4	Gemini	USA	7.0	8.3	7.8	7.8	9.3	6.8	7.0	7.5	7.8	7.5
5	Meta	USA	7.5	7.0	7.3	7.3	8.3	6.3	7.3	6.8	8.3	7.1
6	Kimi	China	8.0	7.0	8.0	7.8	6.8	6.8	7.5	6.0	6.3	7.0
7	Qwen	China	5.8	6.8	7.8	5.8	7.5	7.0	6.0	6.3	6.5	6.4
8	Z.ai	China	5.8	6.0	6.8	6.8	5.8	5.8	6.5	6.3	6.8	6.0
9	Nemotron + Mercury	USA	3.5	5.8	7.0	3.5	3.5	4.5	3.5	4.3	4.3	4.2
10	Nova	USA	3.5	5.0	6.3	2.8	4.0	4.5	3.0	3.3	3.5	3.6

Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their average. Equal scores share a place.

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan, the kind people buy for themselves (up to about $40 a month), or free, with web search on, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

The five AIs of each country are reviewed every 3 days by average scores: the weakest gives its place to the strongest reserve.

AI	Model	Thinking mode	Plan	How we know the model
ChatGPT	GPT-6	Extra high	Pro	the app showed it
Meta	Muse Spark 1.3	Thinking	free	from the app's help page
Gemini	Gemini 4 Argon	High	Google AI Pro	the app showed it
Nemotron + Mercury	Nemotron 3 Ultra	High	free, no sign-in	the app showed it
Mercury web search for Nemotron + Mercury	Mercury 2.5	High	free	the app doesn't say
Nova	Amazon Nova	High	free	the app doesn't say
MiMo	MiMo-V2.6-Pro		free	the app showed it
Qwen	Qwen3.8-Max	Thinking	free	the app showed it
Z.ai	GLM-5.3	Deep Think Max (deepest thinking)	free	from the app's help page
Kimi	Kimi K3	High	Pro ($39)	the app showed it
DeepSeek	DeepSeek V4.1 Flash	DeepThink (thinks before answering)	free	from the app's help page

Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 14, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will this story see a new development?

The exact question every AI answered: Will a major news outlet (Reuters, AP, BBC, Bloomberg or the Financial Times) report a new concrete development of this story — «Tesla plans next-generation Roadster reveal after almost a decade of delays» — by 2026-11-14?

The result comes on Nov 14, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. Counts: a published report of a new event in this story. Does not count: a repeat or a comment on the first report. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.

together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer

Five AIs from the USA together · 83%
ChatGPT97%
Gemini88%
Meta82%
Nemotron + Mercury80%
Nova60%
Five AIs from China together · 85%
MiMo90%
Kimi90%
Qwen85%
Z.ai80%
DeepSeek70%

All ten AIs together · 83%

Poly Index

The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.

Five AIs from the USA83%ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron + Mercury, Novaall 5 answered
Five AIs from China85%MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 5 answered
All ten AIs83%ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron + Mercury, Nova, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.

Each AI's own forecast (10)

AI	Forecast	Checked on	Chance
ChatGPT	By October 22, Tesla will publish official video footage showing a next-generation Roadster prototype hovering with all four wheels visibly off the ground for at least one second.	Oct 22, 2026	62%
Meta	Tesla will publish an official video showing Roadster hovering and confirm production target of 2027 on its site	Oct 20, 2026	62%
Gemini	Tesla officially names a specific manufacturing plant location for the next-generation Roadster in an official company release or quarterly shareholder filing	Nov 14, 2026	40%
Nemotron + Mercury	Tesla opens Roadster pre-orders to existing Tesla owners	Oct 31, 2026	65%
Nova	Tesla will officially reveal the next-gen Roadster by March 2027	Mar 31, 2027	75%
MiMo	Tesla will push back at least once the first-delivery date for the new Roadster that it announces tonight	Jun 30, 2027	62%
Qwen	Tesla confirms the exact month that Roadster production will begin.	Nov 10, 2026	70%
Z.ai	Tesla will delay Roadster production past the promised 2027 start date	Mar 31, 2027	75%
Kimi	Tesla's October 15 demo includes the new Roadster briefly leaving the ground using SpaceX cold-gas thrusters	Oct 16, 2026	55%
DeepSeek	Tesla will announce a specific production start date for the Roadster (e.g., 'Q1 2028') by 2026-12-31.	Dec 31, 2026	60%

Each own forecast is checked on its own date.

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