From the trend: A huge ocean warm-up has set a heat record weeks before its peak
Will the world's seas be warmer next Thursday than this Saturday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will the world's seas be warmer next Thursday than this Saturday?
At the time of the question: about 21°C
Why this question: El Niño heats the sea, so the world average rises.
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 4 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Nemotron + Mercury🇨🇳MiMo🇨🇳Z.ai🇺🇸ChatGPT
Nemotron + Mercury: Oceans still warming into late October
No — 6 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳Kimi🇨🇳StepFun🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸Meta🇺🇸Gemini
DeepSeek: Late October usually cools the global ocean, so a rise in five days is unlikely.
We check it on: pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: pulse.climate.copernicus.eu
The answer is due on Oct 23, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will the world's average sea surface temperature on the Copernicus Climate Pulse page for October 22, 2026 be higher than for October 17, 2026?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 6 days before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 77 of the book: 6f15770bd13cd17440a9041ce6c64efea77332a1094681c859ede32f57b19936
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-17-053415Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-17-053415Z.txt.ots
- The first 77 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 77 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-17-053415Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.