From the trend: Elon Musk says every child in America will get a SpaceX share
Will SpaceX report more money coming in than experts expect on Tuesday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 8 AIs forecast.
Will SpaceX report more money coming in than experts expect on Tuesday?
Why this question: The company whose shares Musk is giving away reports its own quarterly sales on Tuesday.
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 6 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Qwen🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸Claude🇨🇳Z.ai🇨🇳Wenxin🇨🇳Kimi
Qwen: Strong internet growth will easily push sales past the twelve billion dollar target.
No — 2 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Meta🇺🇸ChatGPT
Meta: Last sales were far below the high guess and growth is bumpy
We check it on: tipranks.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: tipranks.com
The answer is due on Oct 20, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will SpaceX's third-quarter 2026 revenue, reported after the US market closes on October 20, 2026, be above the FactSet analyst consensus of $12.89 billion (More) or at or below it (Less)?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 29 hours before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 105 of the book: 4029b74754f48eb7f372e4cd00e694037348e1ae30c86ec184a71eb90bbdf39a
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-19-153441Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-19-153441Z.txt.ots
- The first 105 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 105 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-19-153441Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.