From the trend: Spanish film La bola negra has a strong opening in US cinemas
Will Netflix name this film in its Tuesday report to investors?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 8 AIs forecast.
Will Netflix name this film in its Tuesday report to investors?
Why this question: Netflix tells investors about its Spanish film's US opening
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 4 AIsYou are here
🇨🇳Qwen🇨🇳DeepSeek🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸Meta
Qwen: Netflix will want to highlight this historic box office milestone to its investors.
No — 4 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳Qianwen🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸Grok
ChatGPT: A company letter is more likely to discuss broad results than name one film.
We check it on: ir.netflix.net
We’ll know the answer
Download Poly A1 for free — see your forecasting skill every day
How often your forecasts come true, whether you beat the AIs, and how you improve by month, quarter and year.
How we will check the answer
We check it on: ir.netflix.net
The answer is due on Oct 20, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Netflix's third-quarter 2026 shareholder letter, published on October 20, 2026 on ir.netflix.net, mention La bola negra (or The Black Ball) by name?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 19 hours before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 111 of the book: fb9e0931c28c25929037f7aef590397db3217f95e906693f74e5ff432399c9ff
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-20-012751Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-20-012751Z.txt.ots
- The first 111 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 111 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-20-012751Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.