From the trend: Microsoft offers a payout to quit to 60,000 workers
Will Microsoft say it spent over $50 billion on computers this summer?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will Microsoft say it spent over $50 billion on computers this summer?
Why this question: Microsoft's spending on data centers appears in the same report
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 6 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇨🇳Qwen🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳Kimi🇨🇳StepFun🇺🇸Meta
Claude: The company itself promised more than fifty billion dollars this quarter.
No — 2 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳Wenxin
ChatGPT: Spending is enormous, but crossing fifty billion in one quarter remains a high hurdle.
We check it on: microsoft.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: microsoft.com
The answer is due on Oct 29, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
In its results published on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, will Microsoft report capital spending (money spent on data centers, chips and equipment, including finance leases) of more than $50 billion for July–September 2026, or $50 billion or less? Check: Microsoft's earnings press release and investor page.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 2 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 187 of the book: 5e72b0c89d4b074e2c381140d8318d7252142bb0ae72f6a01e2387637596e66d
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-26-193429Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-26-193429Z.txt.ots
- The first 187 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 187 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-26-193429Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.