From the trend: The company behind the Claude AI asks to sell its shares to everyone
Will Anthropic update its stock-market papers by Monday?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what the AIs forecast.
Will Anthropic update its stock-market papers by Monday?
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 4 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Grok🇺🇸ChatGPT🇨🇳Wenxin🇺🇸Meta
Grok: Blank price and share count in the first papers usually get filled quickly before investor meetings
No — 3 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Claude🇨🇳Z.ai🇨🇳MiMo
Claude: Third-quarter numbers are still blank, but price details usually come closer to the sale.
Could not decide (50/50): Kimi
We check it on: sec.gov
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: sec.gov
The answer is due on Nov 2, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
Will Anthropic file an updated version of its stock-market listing papers (a form called S-1/A) with the US stock-market regulator by the end of Monday, November 2, 2026, as shown in the regulator's public filing list (SEC EDGAR)?
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 6 days before the answer was due. Fixed for good: nobody, us included, can change it quietly now.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 197 of the book: 5d0627fd63e9c46a2762ff0a2342b19682eff638554982819baed22259f53af9
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-27-153156Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-27-153156Z.txt.ots
- The first 197 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 197 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-27-153156Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.