Oct 13, 2026New trend every hour

Trend of the day · technologytechnology · Oct 13, 2026

Garmin's new luxury watch can call for help by satellite, from $2,500

The AIs say a watch that calls without a phone is a safety backup for trips, not a phone replacement.

USA6.9:China7.2

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They agree: 6 of 8: watch makers now earn from a monthly fee, not only the sale.
They split: Wenxin calls the fee well worth it; Z.ai says wait two years for cheaper ones.
Not obvious: None of the 8 noticed: the watch calls only people who have Garmin's app.
What to do: Count your phone-free trips last year before you sign up for $120 a year.
What to watch: If a watch under $500 gets satellite SOS within a year, the AIs were right.
Only one AI: Only Z.ai: Apple watches have made calls without a phone since 2017.

Read in full

The eight AIs agree on the buying rule: a watch with its own connection pays off only if you often leave your phone behind or go where there is no signal, such as solo hikes, night runs or dives. If you live in town with your phone in your pocket, a cheaper watch does the same fitness job. DeepSeek puts it most clearly: this is a backup phone for certain moments, not a replacement, with a small screen and few apps.

Most also see a business shift. Meta AI, Grok, Qwen, Z.ai and Wenxin say watches are turning from a one-time purchase into a device with a monthly fee, and that other brands will copy it. They split on timing. Wenxin says the satellite SOS (an emergency message sent by satellite when there is no mobile signal) is well worth the fee for anyone who goes outdoors.

Z.ai says wait a year or two, because such features always move down to mid-price watches. Z.ai and DeepSeek also point out that Apple and Samsung have sold watches that call without a phone for years, so the new part is satellite SOS and battery life, not calling.

One thing none of them checked: according to the DC Rainmaker review, the watch has no phone number of its own and calls only people who have the Garmin Messenger app. The $9.99 plan covers unlimited mobile use and emergency-only satellite messages; other satellite texts cost extra. So before buying, ask whether your family will install that app.

What to do: count how many times a year you are really out of reach. Add the fee to the price ($120 a year, every year). Check that satellite SOS works where you travel. Use the 30-day free trial to see if you actually use the calling, and cancel if you don't.

They split: Wenxin calls the fee well worth it; Z.ai says wait two years for cheaper ones.
What settles the dispute: The price of Garmin's next mid-range watch with SOS will show whether waiting pays.

Little difference; China's AIs more often said rivals already sell watches that call.Only the AIs from one country noticed: AIs from China: Apple and Samsung already sell watches that make calls without a phone.

What is confirmed and what is not

Confirmed by a source Watch calls reach only people who have Garmin's Messenger app
Confirmed by a source $9.99 a month after the trial; satellite texts beyond SOS cost extra
The AIs' conclusion Phone-free calling and SOS will reach mid-price watches in 1–2 years

The AIs read 28 sources

Ask any AI yourself

I hike alone a few times a year and usually carry my phone. Is a watch with its own calling plan worth $120 a year for me?

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Who wins, who loses: Solo hikers and divers gain; buyers who never leave their phone pay $120 a year.

The final answer, by Claude Opus

All 8 answers ↓▶ Watch how it came together

On October 13, 2026, the watch maker Garmin launched the third generation of its luxury MARQ watches, priced from $2,500 to $3,100. The sports-tech reviewer DC Rainmaker reported that they can make calls over their own mobile connection and send SOS messages by satellite.

The mobile service costs $9.99 a month after a 30-day free trial (source).

What does a watch that works without a phone mean for ordinary people? What is likely to happen next with watches and phones, and how should a person decide what is worth paying for?

What the world's 8 leading AIs think

1DeepSeekChina8.1A watch that calls alone is a backup phone, not a phone replacement.
For an ordinary person, a watch with its own cellular and satellite connection means you can leave your phone at home for a run, a hike, or a quick errand and still call for help or get directions. But it is not a full replacement for a phone: small screen, limited apps, and a monthly fee of about $10 after a free trial. It is best seen as a safety and convenience layer for specific moments, not an everyday phone substitute.
For the watch industry, this pushes premium watches further into the phone's territory, but the real competition is still Apple and Samsung, which already offer cellular watches with broader app ecosystems.
Garmin's advantage is ruggedness, battery life, and satellite messaging, so it will likely win with outdoor and fitness enthusiasts rather than mainstream phone users. Expect more watches to add satellite SOS and cellular as standard features in the next two years.
If you are deciding what to pay for, first ask whether you regularly go to places without phone coverage or want to leave your phone behind during workouts. If yes, the extra cost and subscription can be worth it for safety.
If you mostly stay in cities and carry your phone anyway, a cheaper watch without cellular will do the same fitness tracking for far less. Always check the monthly service cost and whether satellite messaging works in your region before buying.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash · mode: DeepThink · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: Garmin reports third-quarter 2026 revenue of $2.05 billion or more in its earnings release. — 55% by Nov 12, 2026
2Z.aiChina8.0Phone-free safety on your wrist is here — but only for the rich.
For ordinary people this means one thing: help sits on your wrist even when the phone is at home. A runner, a hiker, a swimmer, or an older parent can call and send an SOS without carrying anything else.
Apple has sold call-making watches since 2017 (en.wikipedia.org), so the idea works — Garmin just pushes it further with satellite SOS and a dive computer (dcrainmaker.com).
For business, the watch is stopping being a phone accessory and becoming its own device. The money shifts from selling one phone to selling a watch plus a monthly fee — about $120 a year here on top of a $2,500 watch (dcrainmaker.com). That pushes Apple, Samsung, and Google to copy it at much cheaper prices, and the wrist becomes the next place companies fight for your monthly payments.
What to do now: pay for true independence only if you really do leave your phone behind — otherwise a $200 watch next to your phone does the same job. If you like the idea, wait a year or two, because fancy features always slide down into mid-price models. And count the fee honestly: $9.99 a month is $120 a year, every year, on top of the watch itself (dcrainmaker.com).
Model: GLM-5.3-Flash · mode: Deep Think Max · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: Garmin raises its full-year 2026 revenue guidance in its Q3 2026 results release, published by 2026-11-12 — 60% by Nov 12, 2026
3PerplexityUSA7.8Watches are becoming independent safety and communication devices
For ordinary people, a watch that can call, message, share location, and call for help without a phone is mainly about safety and convenience.
It matters most outdoors, while running, traveling, diving, or in places where carrying a phone is awkward; Garmin’s service includes satellite SOS and location sharing, but it requires an active plan after a free trial. [dcrainmaker.com] [hodinkee.com]
For the watch and phone business, this pushes watches from phone accessories toward standalone devices. Apple and Google will likely face more pressure to offer cellular safety features, longer battery life, and satellite messaging, while phone makers may keep the phone as the main screen but make the watch the emergency device.
The catch is cost: these watches remain expensive, and the monthly connection fee can become another subscription people forget they are paying for. [forbes.com] [wareable.com]
Most people should not buy one just because it works without a phone. Pay only if you regularly do activities where being unreachable is a real risk, or if you would genuinely use calls, maps, diving tools, or satellite SOS; otherwise, a cheaper watch plus a phone is better value.
Check the total cost—device, service plan, battery needs, and whether your emergency contacts can receive the alerts—before paying $2,500 or more. [dcrainmaker.com] [hodinkee.com]
Sources
own forecast: By December 31, 2026, at least one major smartwatch maker besides Garmin will announce a mainstream watch with both satellite SOS messaging and standalone LTE calling. — 65% by Dec 31, 2026
4GrokUSA7.3Phone-free watches free people from carrying a phone
A watch that works without a phone means ordinary people can make a call or send an SOS from a trail, boat, or remote spot even if they left the phone behind or have no signal. Most days the phone still handles calls, maps, and texts, so the watch mainly helps when you want to travel light or enter areas with poor coverage. The extra monthly fee only pays off if those outdoor moments happen often enough to matter.
Businesses gain a fresh monthly charge for connectivity that used to ride free on a phone plan. Watch makers can justify higher prices while phone companies may see fewer voice and text minutes from people who leave the phone at home. Expect more brands to add the same cellular and satellite tools, which will lift the cost of premium watches over the next year.
Decide what is worth paying for by counting how many times a year you truly go without a phone or into no-signal places. If that number is small, a regular watch plus your phone covers the need for far less money. If remote trips are regular, the free trial lets you test the features before committing to the full price and plan.
Model: Grok 4.7 · mode: Expert · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: Garmin will raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance in the third-quarter results release published by 2026-11-12 — 62% by Nov 12, 2026
5Meta AIUSA7.1Luxury watch that calls for help without a phone changes safety
A watch that works without a phone means you can stay reachable and call for help even when the phone stays home. For a runner at night, a hiker out of signal, or a diver far from shore, that safety matters more than style. You trade phone weight for a watch fee.
For business, luxury watches are turning from jewelry into a tool that sells a monthly service. Garmin is testing if people will pay ten dollars a month to stay linked from the wrist. If the test works, other makers will copy it and fees for watch safety will become normal.
Decide with use, not hype. If you often go alone off grid, dive to forty meters, or want a light on your wrist, the extra cost and fee can be worth it. If you live and train in town with your phone always near, a cheaper watch does the same job.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 · mode: Thinking · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: Garmin announces that LTE and satellite SOS from MARQ Gen 3 will come to Fenix 9 Pro or next Fenix line — 58% by Nov 12, 2026

6WenxinChina6.8Standalone watches cut phone dependency
For ordinary people, a phone-free watch means you can leave your phone at home for short trips, workouts or quick errands, never missing urgent calls or safety alerts. It also cuts down on constant phone screen checks, helping you stay more present in daily moments. The $9.99 monthly service fee adds a small recurring cost, but the peace of mind from satellite SOS is well worth it for anyone who spends time outdoors.This shift will push watch makers to bundle more standalone features, while phone brands will start selling smaller, secondary companion devices instead of one-size-fits-all main phones.
Subscription plans for watch cellular and satellite services will become a standard new revenue stream for wearable firms, not just a one-time device sale.
Premium watch models will keep pulling in higher margins as consumers pay more for specialized, no-phone-needed capabilities.You should only pay for these features if you regularly hike, dive or often leave your phone behind, not just for casual daily use. Skip the top-tier $3,100 model if you don't need the luxury build or professional dive tools, and pick the entry $2,500 version that matches your actual use cases. Don't lock into the monthly service long-term; test the 30-day free trial first to see if you actually use the standalone calling feature.
Model: ERNIE · mode: Fast · search on · new chat not disclosed
Sources
own forecast: Garmin will launch a lower-priced standalone cellular smartwatch under $500 by late 2026 — 65% by Nov 10, 2026
7QwenChina5.9Standalone watches reduce phone reliance, shifting how everyday people buy tech.
Standalone watches let people leave their phones behind safely (dcrainmaker.com). They can make calls and send SOS messages without a phone (dcrainmaker.com). This freedom is useful but comes with a monthly service fee (dcrainmaker.com).
Tech companies are racing to sell direct subscriptions instead of just hardware (chartmill.com). Brands can lock users into their ecosystems with monthly mobile plans. This creates steady, predictable income beyond the initial expensive watch purchase (finance.yahoo.com).
Buyers should list their actual daily needs before paying for premium features. If you rarely hike or dive, a cheaper phone-connected watch is enough. Always check if the monthly mobile fee fits your long-term budget.
Model: Qwen3.7-Plus · mode: Thinking · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: Garmin will announce a new standalone smartwatch model priced under $300 with built-in satellite SOS. — 60% by Nov 10, 2026
8NovaUSA5.6Watches gain phone skills, changing what people buy.
For ordinary people, a watch that works without a phone means you can stay connected wherever you go, even if you leave your phone at home. This is handy for activities like hiking, running, or traveling where phone service might be spotty or you want to reduce distractions.
For businesses, this trend signals a shift towards more integrated personal technology ecosystems. Companies like Garmin might see increased sales as consumers look for devices that offer more independence from traditional smartphones. This could also lead to new partnerships or services around mobile connectivity for wearables.
When deciding what to pay for, consider how often you’d use the extra features. If you frequently engage in outdoor activities or need constant connectivity, a standalone watch makes sense. Otherwise, a regular smartwatch might offer better value. Evaluate your lifestyle and the specific benefits each device provides before committing to additional costs like monthly service fees.
Model: Amazon Nova · mode: High · search on · new chat not disclosed
Sources
1. dcrainmaker.com
own forecast: By 2026-12-01, at least three major wearable tech companies will announce plans to integrate standalone mobile connectivity into their flagship watch lines. — 65% by Dec 1, 2026

Previous trends

Latest trend →: Shanghai wants almost half of its family cars to be electric by 2030

Which AI guesses right more often

Accuracy 0–100: how close the chance was to what happened. 100 — exact, 50 — a coin toss, 0 — the opposite. few data: 0 of 30 results

The first results come a day after the first questions.

Came true or not: what 12 AIs promised for 2026 →

How it works

The world's 8 leading AIs (4 from the USA and 4 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.

8 AIs, one question. 4 AIs from the USA and 4 from China answered it; 4 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. 12 were asked, 8 answered — each side shows its 4 strongest.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known, and we send its fingerprint at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us. No one can quietly change a question afterwards.

Came true or not: what 12 AIs promised for 2026 →

Mistral, DeepSeek, Meta AI and Nova read the answers without knowing who wrote them.

Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by the public leaderboard of their labs — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–H in random order, the authors' names removed.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, non-obviousness, usefulness and clarity; the score is the mean of the judges.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own answer too: it never sees the names.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.

Judge by judge: Mistral — China ahead by 0.4; DeepSeek (China) — China ahead by 0.4; Meta AI (USA) — a tie (China +0.1); Nova (USA) — a tie (China +0.1).

Who scored highest

#	AI	Side	Mistral	DeepSeek	Meta AI	Nova	Score
1	DeepSeek	China	8.0	8.8	7.5	8.0	8.1
2	Z.ai	China	7.8	8.0	8.0	8.3	8.0
3	Perplexity	USA	7.0	8.0	7.3	8.8	7.8
4	Grok	USA	7.0	7.5	6.5	8.0	7.3
5	Meta AI	USA	7.0	7.0	6.8	7.8	7.1
6	Wenxin	China	6.3	6.5	6.0	8.3	6.8
7	Qwen	China	5.5	6.0	4.3	8.0	5.9
8	Nova	USA	5.0	5.3	4.8	7.5	5.6

Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their mean. Equal scores share a place.

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its own app, in its best single mode on a regular plan (about $20–30 a month) or free, with web search on, in a new chat, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

AI	Model	Mode	Plan	How sure
Meta AI	Muse Spark 1.3	Thinking	free	likely
Grok	Grok 4.7	Expert	SuperGrok	likely
Nova	Amazon Nova	High	free	not disclosed
Qwen	Qwen3.7-Plus	Thinking	free	likely
Z.ai	GLM-5.3-Flash	Deep Think Max	free	exact
DeepSeek	DeepSeek V4.1 Flash	DeepThink	free	likely
Wenxin	ERNIE	Fast	free, no sign-in	not disclosed
Mistral judge	Mistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5	Think	free	not disclosed

Exact: the app showed the model for this answer. Likely: the app shows only the mode, so we name the model the provider’s own help lists for that mode. Not disclosed: the app does not say which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 12, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will Garmin report revenue of $2.05 billion or more for the third quarter of 2026 (July to September) in a results release published by 2026-11-12?

The result comes on Nov 12, 2026, 30 days after this issue. Check: Garmin's official quarterly results release on its investor relations or newsroom website. Counts: total net sales for the quarter as stated in that release. Does not count: analyst estimates, a scheduled date with no results, or a release published after 2026-11-12 (which settles as No). Each AI is scored by how close its probability was to what happened (the Brier score).

Poly USA-5 · 42%
Perplexity78%
Meta AI45%
Nova40%
Grok38%
Poly China-5 · 48%
DeepSeek55%
Z.ai50%
Qwen45%
Wenxin45%

the line: Poly World-10 · 47%

Poly Index

Three numbers from the same answers: the five American AIs, the five Chinese AIs and all ten together.

Poly USA-542%Meta AI, Grok, Nova, Perplexity4 of 5 answered
Poly China-548%Qwen, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Wenxin4 of 5 answered
Poly World-1047%Meta AI, Grok, Nova, Perplexity, Qwen, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Wenxin8 of 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and take the average of the rest. The AIs answered before they saw any market.

Each AI's own forecast (8)

AI	Forecast	By	Chance
Meta AI	Garmin announces that LTE and satellite SOS from MARQ Gen 3 will come to Fenix 9 Pro or next Fenix line	Nov 12, 2026	58%
Grok	Garmin will raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance in the third-quarter results release published by 2026-11-12	Nov 12, 2026	62%
Nova	By 2026-12-01, at least three major wearable tech companies will announce plans to integrate standalone mobile connectivity into their flagship watch lines.	Dec 1, 2026	65%
Perplexity	By December 31, 2026, at least one major smartwatch maker besides Garmin will announce a mainstream watch with both satellite SOS messaging and standalone LTE calling.	Dec 31, 2026	65%
Qwen	Garmin will announce a new standalone smartwatch model priced under $300 with built-in satellite SOS.	Nov 10, 2026	60%
Z.ai	Garmin raises its full-year 2026 revenue guidance in its Q3 2026 results release, published by 2026-11-12	Nov 12, 2026	60%
DeepSeek	Garmin reports third-quarter 2026 revenue of $2.05 billion or more in its earnings release.	Nov 12, 2026	55%
Wenxin	Garmin will launch a lower-priced standalone cellular smartwatch under $500 by late 2026	Nov 10, 2026	65%

Each own forecast is checked on its own date.

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