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スコアカード:論文の事前登録された予測

論文の事前登録された予測と、このビルドでの各予測の状況:事前登録、判定プログラムとそのルール、分析のバージョン、各予測の期間・確認日・論文の言葉による状態。

2026-10-22 に登録： OSF ↗ · doi:10.17605/OSF.IO/9Q86N

判定:resolve.py、ルール osf-rules-1、2026-10-22 に読み取り: resolve.py · SHA256SUMS

分析のバージョン: methodology-versions.json · claim-status.json

各予測は確認日に登録済みルールで判定。状態は論文の言葉で示します。 期日前: 30

#予測セットp期間開始確認日状態
F1評議会は1日の予想で独立した声2つ分に満たない
The council stays below two independent voices at one day		A0.502026-11-022026-11-30期日前
F2市場の連動では類似性を説明できない
Market co-movement does not explain the likeness		A0.502026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F3誤りも共有される
Errors are shared too
a field to be published: N_eff of the error indicators, computed by the filed resolver		B0.742026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F4モデルは群衆より予測の鋭さで劣る
Models are less sharp than the crowd		B0.402026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F5共通のリンクは共通の予想を意味する
Shared links mean shared calls		A0.562026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F6全員そろって外れる
All wrong together		B0.922026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F7正しい少数派は全員一致の誤りより多い
A right minority is more common than a unanimous error		A0.632026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F8表は予定どおり埋まる
The table fills on schedule		A0.882026-10-192026-11-30期日前
F9独立性は1日より1か月の方が大きい
Independence is greater at the month than at the day		B0.302026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F10平均は首位に従うより良い
Averaging beats following the leader		B0.642026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F11単一のモデルに検出可能な1日の優位はない
No single model shows a detected daily advantage		B0.792026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F12群衆が評議会に勝つ
The crowd beats the council		B0.832026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F13組み合わせが群衆に勝つ
The combination beats the crowd		B0.302026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F14モデルは自信過剰
Models are overconfident		B0.802026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F15評議会は単純なルールに明確な差で勝てない
The council does not beat a simple rule by a clear margin		B0.802026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F16どの期間もシーズンを通じて検出可能なシグナルを持たない
No horizon carries a detected signal over a season		B0.632026-11-022027-04-30期日前
F17気候値と比べると、1日が最も難しい期間
Relative to climatology, the day is the hardest horizon		B0.372026-11-022027-04-30期日前
F18国は小さな要因
Country is a small factor		B0.802026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F19シーズンを通じて米国側の成績が良い
The US side scores better over a season		B0.572026-11-022027-04-30期日前
F20同じニュースなら意見の相違は減る
The same news means less dispute		A0.702026-11-022026-11-30期日前
F21検索は精度をあまり高めない
Search adds little accuracy
unresolved on the files of 21 October 2026: every Closed Book call was asked after the open and has no outcome from its own reference; it resolves once closed calls sealed before the common reference, or each closed call's own reference price, close and outcome, are published		B0.722026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F22議論は本当のリスクを見つける
Discussion finds real risks		A0.302026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F23批判に耳を傾けると報われる
Heeding the critique pays		A0.422026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F24モデルは自分自身と大きく食い違う
A model disagrees with itself a lot		A0.602026-11-012026-11-30期日前
F25首位は長続きしない
Leaders do not last		B0.622026-11-022027-04-30期日前
F26指数に勝つのは難しい
The index is hard to beat		B0.602026-11-022027-04-30期日前
F27良い予想者が最良のトレーダーではない
Good forecasters are not the best traders		B0.832026-11-022027-04-30期日前
F28最初の予想の前にモデルを見ても、読者の Brier スコアは 0.01 以上改善しない
Access to the models before the first forecast does not improve readers' Brier score by 0.01 or more		A0.462026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F29モデルを見ると読者は評議会に近づく
Access moves readers toward the council
unresolved on the files of 21 October 2026: the readers' first forecasts of the experiment are not published as rows (a field to be published and documented in arena-dataset.json)		B0.412026-11-022026-12-31期日前
F30文体でモデルが分かる
Style gives the model away
needs the addendum to the registration naming the fixed guesser (filed before 2 November 2026) and the answer lines of the blind season with the post-season reveal		B0.462026-11-022027-04-30期日前

prediction-ledger.json · claim-status.json · 標準の達成状況

このデータの引用

データは CC BY 4.0 で公開しています。データのリリースを引用してください。事前登録と論文も併記しています。

クレジット表記:

Chernets, Vadym (2026). AI Council · Markets: open league files as of 22 October 2026 (immutable release for "Sealed Before the Open") [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23552700 · CC BY 4.0

BibTeX

@dataset{chernets_2026_23552700,
  author    = {Chernets, Vadym},
  title     = {AI Council · Markets: open league files as of 22 October 2026 (immutable release for "Sealed Before the Open")},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {Zenodo},
  doi       = {10.5281/zenodo.23552700},
  url       = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23552700},
  note      = {CC BY 4.0}
}

@misc{chernets_2026_osf_9q86n,
  author    = {Chernets, Vadym},
  title     = {Sealed Before the Open: registered primary endpoint and 30 dated predictions on AI forecasts of financial markets, 2026 to 2027},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {OSF Registries},
  doi       = {10.17605/OSF.IO/9Q86N},
  url       = {https://osf.io/9q86n/}
}