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记分卡:论文的预注册预测

论文的预注册预测,以及每一项在本次构建时的状态:预注册、判定程序及其规则、分析版本,以及每项预测的窗口、核对日期和用论文措辞表述的状态。

登记于 2026-10-22： OSF ↗ · doi:10.17605/OSF.IO/9Q86N

判定程序 resolve.py,规则 osf-rules-1,读取于 2026-10-22: resolve.py · SHA256SUMS

分析版本: methodology-versions.json · claim-status.json

每项预测在其检查日按登记的规则判定；状态使用论文中的措辞。 未到期: 30

#预测组p窗口起始检查日状态
F1理事会在单日层面不到两个独立声音
The council stays below two independent voices at one day		A0.502026-11-022026-11-30未到期
F2市场同步波动不能解释这种相似
Market co-movement does not explain the likeness		A0.502026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F3错误也是共同的
Errors are shared too
a field to be published: N_eff of the error indicators, computed by the filed resolver		B0.742026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F4模型不如人群敏锐
Models are less sharp than the crowd		B0.402026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F5共享链接意味着相同判断
Shared links mean shared calls		A0.562026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F6全部一起出错
All wrong together		B0.922026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F7正确的少数比一致的错误更常见
A right minority is more common than a unanimous error		A0.632026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F8表格按计划填满
The table fills on schedule		A0.882026-10-192026-11-30未到期
F9月度的独立性大于单日
Independence is greater at the month than at the day		B0.302026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F10取平均胜过跟随领先者
Averaging beats following the leader		B0.642026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F11没有任何单个模型显示出可检测的单日优势
No single model shows a detected daily advantage		B0.792026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F12人群胜过理事会
The crowd beats the council		B0.832026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F13组合胜过人群
The combination beats the crowd		B0.302026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F14模型过于自信
Models are overconfident		B0.802026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F15理事会并未明显胜过简单规则
The council does not beat a simple rule by a clear margin		B0.802026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F16一个赛季内没有任何期限带有可检测的信号
No horizon carries a detected signal over a season		B0.632026-11-022027-04-30未到期
F17相对于气候基准，单日是最难的期限
Relative to climatology, the day is the hardest horizon		B0.372026-11-022027-04-30未到期
F18国别是个小因素
Country is a small factor		B0.802026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F19一个赛季内美国方得分更好
The US side scores better over a season		B0.572026-11-022027-04-30未到期
F20相同的新闻意味着更少的分歧
The same news means less dispute		A0.702026-11-022026-11-30未到期
F21搜索对准确度提升不大
Search adds little accuracy
unresolved on the files of 21 October 2026: every Closed Book call was asked after the open and has no outcome from its own reference; it resolves once closed calls sealed before the common reference, or each closed call's own reference price, close and outcome, are published		B0.722026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F22讨论能发现真实风险
Discussion finds real risks		A0.302026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F23听取批评有回报
Heeding the critique pays		A0.422026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F24模型经常与自己意见不一
A model disagrees with itself a lot		A0.602026-11-012026-11-30未到期
F25领先者不会持久
Leaders do not last		B0.622026-11-022027-04-30未到期
F26指数很难被战胜
The index is hard to beat		B0.602026-11-022027-04-30未到期
F27好的预测者不是最好的交易者
Good forecasters are not the best traders		B0.832026-11-022027-04-30未到期
F28在首次预测前看到模型，不会使读者的 Brier 分数改善 0.01 或更多
Access to the models before the first forecast does not improve readers' Brier score by 0.01 or more		A0.462026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F29看到模型会让读者向理事会靠拢
Access moves readers toward the council
unresolved on the files of 21 October 2026: the readers' first forecasts of the experiment are not published as rows (a field to be published and documented in arena-dataset.json)		B0.412026-11-022026-12-31未到期
F30风格会暴露模型身份
Style gives the model away
needs the addendum to the registration naming the fixed guesser (filed before 2 November 2026) and the answer lines of the blind season with the post-season reveal		B0.462026-11-022027-04-30未到期

prediction-ledger.json · claim-status.json · 标准的落实情况

引用这些数据

数据以 CC BY 4.0 开放。请引用数据发布版本;预注册和论文一并列出。

署名行:

Chernets, Vadym (2026). AI Council · Markets: open league files as of 22 October 2026 (immutable release for "Sealed Before the Open") [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23552700 · CC BY 4.0

BibTeX

@dataset{chernets_2026_23552700,
  author    = {Chernets, Vadym},
  title     = {AI Council · Markets: open league files as of 22 October 2026 (immutable release for "Sealed Before the Open")},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {Zenodo},
  doi       = {10.5281/zenodo.23552700},
  url       = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23552700},
  note      = {CC BY 4.0}
}

@misc{chernets_2026_osf_9q86n,
  author    = {Chernets, Vadym},
  title     = {Sealed Before the Open: registered primary endpoint and 30 dated predictions on AI forecasts of financial markets, 2026 to 2027},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {OSF Registries},
  doi       = {10.17605/OSF.IO/9Q86N},
  url       = {https://osf.io/9q86n/}
}