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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-23-am

All answers were sealed before the open: the latest — Kimi, 13:23:56 UTC (6 min 4 s before the open); the others — at 13:00:16 UTC.

Hash of the run: 0fcf66910e47d9b495cce44be2f7910029a36b885d163ac03f51ba4d8e4b16fe · sealed 2026-10-23T13:00:15Z

Covers lines 291–302 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-23 13:00:15 UTC, seal updated 2026-10-23 13:23:56 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. f86b97cb1682eb9a62c7fe44dab4432a22731df451172ce8b8cecb54523ba7a5 — as at 2026-10-23 12:30:05 UTC, lines 291–292, list 123005Z.txt
  2. a0867be8cdbfbac7caf27d2cf5d3fdacbd414703279c90b4d20c2fe977f3724a — as at 2026-10-23 13:00:16 UTC, lines 291–298, list 130016Z.txt
  3. 0fcf66910e47d9b495cce44be2f7910029a36b885d163ac03f51ba4d8e4b16fe — as at 2026-10-23 13:23:56 UTC, lines 291–302 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–298 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 cd9fb61538398274416580f1d70d6b1b27d315607cf31bce4c57c9299e9a6e0a

The intake for the score closed at Fri, Oct 23, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-23T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed, the last at 13:23:07 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. seal updated with the run’s next line
  6. the open: intake closes, reference prices

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=293) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Gemini12:30:05————
council · step 1Grok12:30:0512:34:21 dc053ec903a5n=294 · 13:00:15123422Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Claude12:30:0512:41:08 9c23d7ae5f1dn=296 · 13:00:15124108Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Meta AI12:30:05————
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)12:30:0512:42:45 580a61a7577dn=297 · 13:00:15124409Z.txt84 s
council · step 1Qwen12:30:05————
council · step 1Z.ai12:30:0512:43:22 57a780f8acecn=298 · 13:00:15124409Z.txt46 s
council · step 1Kimi12:30:05————
council · step 1ChatGPT12:30:05————
council · step 1DeepSeek12:30:0512:34:29 8b5c19a0c231n=295 · 13:00:15123722Z.txt172 s
council · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)12:30:06————
council · step 1Step 5 Preview12:30:06————
council · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (поиск)12:30:06————
council · step 1Amazon Nova12:30:06————
council · step 2Gemini13:00:19————
council · step 2Meta AI13:00:1913:23:07 782e14780c02n=302 · 13:23:56132341Z.txt33 s
council · step 2Amazon Nova13:00:19————
council · step 2Qwen13:00:19————
council · step 2Kimi13:00:1913:08:50 6b91ac8824aen=300 · 13:23:56130850Z.txt0 s
council · step 2Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)13:00:20————
council · step 2Nemotron + Mercury (поиск)13:03:5413:23:07 5e4ef6c7c0d4n=301 · 13:23:56132307Z.txt0 s
council · step 2ChatGPT13:23:41————
council · step 2Step 5 Preview13:23:42————
council-bench-retry-portfolioNemotron + Mercury (поиск)13:48:51————

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
011242Z.txt1–282cf5371811f3debb6…
011525Z.txt1–282cf5371811f3debb6…
011825Z.txt1–282cf5371811f3debb6…
013544Z.txt1–282cf5371811f3debb6…
021110Z.txt1–282cf5371811f3debb6…
021154Z.txt1–282cf5371811f3debb6…
021455Z.txt1–282cf5371811f3debb6…
021755Z.txt1–282cf5371811f3debb6…
023055Z.txt1–282cf5371811f3debb6…
031108Z.txt1–29040513a4a3dc17e75…
033431Z.txt1–29040513a4a3dc17e75…
053513Z.txt1–29040513a4a3dc17e75…
073450Z.txt1–29040513a4a3dc17e75…
093444Z.txt1–29040513a4a3dc17e75…
113455Z.txt1–29040513a4a3dc17e75…
123005Z.txt1–292d32d0bb9a7c0759d…
123007Z.txt1–292d32d0bb9a7c0759d…
123227Z.txt1–292d32d0bb9a7c0759d…
123422Z.txt1–292d32d0bb9a7c0759d…
123722Z.txt1–292d32d0bb9a7c0759d…
124108Z.txt1–292d32d0bb9a7c0759d…
124409Z.txt1–292d32d0bb9a7c0759d…
130016Z.txt1–298cd9fb61538398274…
130019Z.txt1–298cd9fb61538398274…
130021Z.txt1–298cd9fb61538398274…
130046Z.txt1–298cd9fb61538398274…
130354Z.txt1–298cd9fb61538398274…
130850Z.txt1–298cd9fb61538398274…
132307Z.txt1–298cd9fb61538398274…
132341Z.txt1–298cd9fb61538398274…
132342Z.txt1–298cd9fb61538398274…
132356Z.txt1–302a4fd155a4b959af8…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Each answer: when it was sealed
verdict file

Answers sealed: first 13:00, last 13:23 · public: 13:01, 13:24 (UTC)

Files: council-run-facts.json · council-late-cells.json

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

33 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From 21 Oct: the morning scheduled run counts, the others are for reference.

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

archive.org · 2026-10-23 13:48 UTC

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-23 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 11,276 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-23 13:25:16 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 240 of 240 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=291 · cb_packet · · seal 191ae72f69e83de480b5da4247936c96bae1845cdde376f41051964e7f607dad · link ab651a38c6b665a0f42a6a94cf039fee92f39797b29ad9fa1a9223bd055a7664 — a record of the book · stamped in 130016Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=292 · swap · · seal 230379dd7b8e3f1f7dbc17e139c70adaa7495962609960eccd8b81754e78d0f9 · link 0e98a7731688bea90e4e5f86c9e4e12755dcadb92b7f04f926d12b74921f0947 — a record of the book · stamped in 130016Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=293 · run · · seal 3555fcc26183d07c35ec21315216db8e97edd40545c4e642feeeec4af4356812 · link 3065c98691fd67f1cf3c70a4b6332b8d469ce0321687ff0d398ef94700d7c174 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 130016Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=294 · answer · grok · seal 1629ef3504d07577e3dee9e5eec3d84bae0f4fbe44863f51c1d67943fd0f746a · link 6641f66ca61b3bb22044341d20a3a4a208d68e23dfc10c9bce53ab5ec23ed2b4 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130016Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=295 · answer · deepseek · seal 29e55304319be4df8b3cbe54987ce74ff94d80a3203bddc24936e4f0496c2e52 · link 6157aca2be01f51f9578c3739a77f15fb539abb62d1908c340664ac1d5b027de — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130016Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=296 · answer · claude · seal d53d9ce842a45c25df06a69bb4807c6f992116e5f75b04ad22eb21db81adee28 · link dc34389d7b4c2056b0c81f59c464db9ba17ca0ac408f3bef3edce751f312ef2e — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130016Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=297 · answer · mimo · seal df6be6c10825b41d2a44c749ae21821124e799bd942eac4a2d9c18dfe5a4c330 · link b831bc4fc11c8f3a472fc82eb901b9550465b53838437ba50a7bbb92f69a9546 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130016Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=298 · answer · zai · seal 135164f859bc8ae6458608c63ddff41d1b7cff84b5fa612a4829c56e66c2707f · link d901d1ed5781db98d30c80ff40c425b2441716c8a3f88b89ef18d09fe111f6c1 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 130016Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=299 · ask_version · · seal 9605962332707027daebc2ddb5455d762e8f00c2bcfb868438b4b3a220fed510 · link a0058eba190bbab7fa3cf617ceab8f5c5ddf8ec3f0b3c684ec880d1a9bc7d324 — a record of the book · stamped in 132356Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=300 · answer · kimi · seal 45676b59d05b4995f63b0a0d0601bfc226501da93496336e38de91400ab6bb98 · link 546353ae998a1a58c95c598b6ce0d4c69b356cc940b3e6738a211508362cd665 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132356Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=301 · answer · nemotron · seal c62cee1c6b53d0920d1d1f10256f20424c71d8c98253dad9e5fb65fb99f15801 · link 82c8c52f6da26cd61559c5acdf903e16d61b0443147a0ecd482bd198ab911073 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132356Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=302 · answer · meta · seal a65b3b13037b4ff7bcfe0bc6a1dda30bc3f81336ee6e37fb071ce6cd6e04d4d6 · link 33f241ae74abe5f046d59e3121b1fd032a1ec3f33b7ccd59ecd9d3ff31bfcdef — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 132356Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →