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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-25-radar

All answers were on a signed list before the open: answers sealed in the book 21:20:03–21:32:41 UTC; lists signed by the timestamp services DigiCert, Sectigo at 22:25:46 and 22:26:37 UTC (the latest — meta, 15 h 3 min before the open).

Hash of the run: 88f4df82c2d6810d57c84f8155fa77636015156ae9c6874f778a22d61d87de8a · sealed 2026-10-25T22:25:45Z

Covers lines 356–367 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-25 22:25:45 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. 8373f57e0d74c77f9e0b4f5a1a32822cd022125fc24fc865b0599e751f325f98 — as at 2026-10-25 21:15:26 UTC, lines 356–357, list 211526Z.txt
  2. 88f4df82c2d6810d57c84f8155fa77636015156ae9c6874f778a22d61d87de8a — as at 2026-10-25 22:25:45 UTC, lines 356–367 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–357 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 c2da5b4c7010032eee8d0b643df9f2eba7957ec08901cfbd5294c6ff7bf97df0

The intake for the score closes at Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-26T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 21:32:41 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 22:26:37 UTC
  6. Bitcoin block 973138 (header time, ± up to ~2 h)
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=358) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
councilMeta AI21:15:26————
councilMiMo (Xiaomi)21:15:2621:29:52 0b3768d0b547n=365 · 22:25:45213150Z.txt118 s
councilChatGPT21:15:2621:28:49 9984b474c163n=363 · 22:25:45212849Z.txt0 s
councilClaude21:15:2621:32:41 5a932df18f6an=367 · 22:25:45213452Z.txt131 s
councilGemini21:15:2621:20:37 ad980adf3e0fn=361 · 22:25:45212317Z.txt159 s
councilKimi21:15:2621:32:40 e5aca6b617c3n=366 · 22:25:45213452Z.txt131 s
councilGrok21:15:2621:19:40 b519b8fe7d5fn=359 · 22:25:45212017Z.txt36 s
councilZ.ai21:15:2621:28:50 cd8cc7d510d7n=364 · 22:25:45213150Z.txt179 s
councilQwen21:15:2621:22:10 b6f9a2fcfd43n=362 · 22:25:45212317Z.txt66 s
councilDeepSeek21:15:26————
councilWenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)21:15:27————
councilNemotron + Mercury (search)21:15:27————
councilStep 5 Preview21:15:2721:19:39 d66a1a6107f1n=360 · 22:25:45212017Z.txt38 s
councilAmazon Nova21:15:27————
council-benchMeta AI22:25:4822:39:39 1a72bab6ccab———
council-benchNemotron + Mercury (search)22:25:4822:26:56 4acc16753e27———
council-benchAmazon Nova22:25:4822:27:57 14991b5a7d0c———
council-benchDeepSeek22:25:4822:26:57 1783146fa890———
council-benchWenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)22:25:48————

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
013436Z.txt1–339bb41a3b4eabd652e…
014650Z.txt1–339bb41a3b4eabd652e…
014651Z.txt1–339bb41a3b4eabd652e…
014853Z.txt1–339bb41a3b4eabd652e…
015404Z.txt1–3400b8f409a93623927…
031956Z.txt1–3400b8f409a93623927…
032018Z.txt1–3400b8f409a93623927…
032319Z.txt1–3400b8f409a93623927…
032344Z.txt1–342a7cf63b8f05d45b9…
032346Z.txt1–34563218f7f990ac2b9…
033413Z.txt1–34563218f7f990ac2b9…
034344Z.txt1–34563218f7f990ac2b9…
034346Z.txt1–34563218f7f990ac2b9…
034540Z.txt1–34563218f7f990ac2b9…
034844Z.txt1–34563218f7f990ac2b9…
035346Z.txt1–347949d437ad84c1e29…
050005Z.txt1–347949d437ad84c1e29…
053351Z.txt1–347949d437ad84c1e29…
064148Z.txt1–347949d437ad84c1e29…
064151Z.txt1–347949d437ad84c1e29…
064652Z.txt1–347949d437ad84c1e29…
065411Z.txt1–3489dc5e91e4997f055…
073410Z.txt1–3489dc5e91e4997f055…
083524Z.txt1–3489dc5e91e4997f055…
083853Z.txt1–3491b41057e49395192…
084220Z.txt1–3491b41057e49395192…
084222Z.txt1–3491b41057e49395192…
084850Z.txt1–3491b41057e49395192…
085257Z.txt1–3491b41057e49395192…
085304Z.txt1–3502781148990168356…
093423Z.txt1–3502781148990168356…
111420Z.txt1–3502781148990168356…
111920Z.txt1–35175ff3cfd47bba23d…
113408Z.txt1–35175ff3cfd47bba23d…
114818Z.txt1–35175ff3cfd47bba23d…
114820Z.txt1–35175ff3cfd47bba23d…
115239Z.txt1–35175ff3cfd47bba23d…
115309Z.txt1–3529af773ce2e14e017…
133400Z.txt1–3529af773ce2e14e017…
134142Z.txt1–3529af773ce2e14e017…
134145Z.txt1–3529af773ce2e14e017…
134744Z.txt1–3529af773ce2e14e017…
135320Z.txt1–3529af773ce2e14e017…
135332Z.txt1–35352b0808ccb54780f…
153452Z.txt1–35352b0808ccb54780f…
154647Z.txt1–35352b0808ccb54780f…
154648Z.txt1–35352b0808ccb54780f…
155049Z.txt1–35352b0808ccb54780f…
155309Z.txt1–3542c2c75ed549592ea…
174523Z.txt1–3542c2c75ed549592ea…
193802Z.txt1–3542c2c75ed549592ea…
204135Z.txt1–3542c2c75ed549592ea…
204145Z.txt1–3542c2c75ed549592ea…
204841Z.txt1–3542c2c75ed549592ea…
205045Z.txt1–3558599105b1c31a770…
211526Z.txt1–357c2da5b4c7010032e…
211528Z.txt1–357c2da5b4c7010032e…
212017Z.txt1–357c2da5b4c7010032e…
212317Z.txt1–357c2da5b4c7010032e…
212849Z.txt1–357c2da5b4c7010032e…
213150Z.txt1–357c2da5b4c7010032e…
213452Z.txt1–357c2da5b4c7010032e…
222545Z.txt1–3678ee6a2ced4321da0…
222548Z.txt1–3678ee6a2ced4321da0…
222636Z.txt1–3685af750aed31bff39…
222658Z.txt1–3685af750aed31bff39…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Each answer: when its list was signed
verdict file

Lists signed: 22:25:45, 22:26:36 · answers sealed in the book 21:20:03–21:32:41 · public: 22:35 (UTC)

Files: council-run-facts.json · council-late-cells.json

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

26 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

archive.org · 2026-10-26 01:36 UTC

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-25 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 13,507 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-25 22:35:51 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 360 of 360 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=356 · cb_packet · · seal 0e0d132f43787b4b8ba6ddd5870714d3a9cfc2acd511e8187e72f486013ffa10 · link 2a2e1c3554258e23abccb3eb39d9b53c5cc3df25e99b7656a52d8d9808bbe265 — a record of the book · stamped in 222545Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=357 · swap · · seal 823e3715efd64d4fa43fd186450de792e8534a00893b98e819391f2bb8c9f30a · link 763d9266cbdd3e1b24ea202271c0d9a21226dad86498c0204938c93a8c4cf8e8 — a record of the book · stamped in 222545Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=358 · run · · seal 28c7ad34664e22149fe2c75c2adc1c0001ed640d6a5161a7a859e20b44cd7f64 · link 908909ab5dd1dafdeff31ce06e2044ef4395604ef74bfb56aef8096a49b734f5 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 222545Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=359 · answer · grok · seal f32c575cb970ed45149d2cd874fca413366e56aa8de416f9155cd9d897cca2f7 · link d1492597f6bdc33ddcac21691881c9ec4c1a351860dd6eeb35b4d624bb211e1a — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 222545Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=360 · answer · stepfun · seal 9f84310692b9157c81e496750e6bf02ee1063b57dcd447189df03a7cdbe8c6b6 · link 9fb6eee89fb9c478e7d77c30f0f4b56a5ee6a14a3f864391109b712b5e1eea88 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 222545Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=361 · answer · gemini · seal 5856217ab8b8374f5f40fbb93cc71b7401b00ad49f1476dcd53f66c7f4cab966 · link 94afc6fa0d4dceee6ad3e9dd195edaf86180f731ab35d627c72cf8df8292cc69 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 222545Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=362 · answer · qwen · seal 17cff667ec0b0d572ad41d08078abe3606a1aadd32a9e5acbc5e8530a0e8dc65 · link b793c0155fee9cc2b3c611e06fb92e569aa058c8e612981c4797e33d73afac75 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 222545Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=363 · answer · chatgpt · seal c9eb3d380982556cb7c282ee696f4eaa397c86fb6e24018c7dd82ca6ba74a960 · link cbd211724bfaa42a1edd8d96cd84ce53ea8caddaad4d2ef19398b6832ddc7655 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 222545Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=364 · answer · zai · seal f827f9d78930e5959de71a7d72c932ff584e1c6cf60574cb96845c78ea9550b2 · link 2f5f2bd6062e658914e22e5d0b637e08d1affdce42520cd1decfcfc945ac1051 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 222545Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=365 · answer · mimo · seal c61e691bd2c01d86b69169f666a0183aa2459d6be1cfa0130c1a8bca70e36db8 · link 951c777f28e0c93b62c568e03cb87e3179cd31ba054081eb50e5ad8d64e3321c — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 222545Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=366 · answer · kimi · seal 7e7628940d09d19896f11ece3e57dea052de4b562ce71d5bfec1ec9515446b7b · link 8df4c64610833347b3c64eb0a248532f8484c6ec64ed53c1f7e651fd638722fe — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 222545Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=367 · answer · claude · seal 5659efdc588c31a1f5265737ba0545c42d0695308c98908e249a74867c497561 · link a78e78e833be18e3b0b2cdb44144e5a933e96a73fa9e2caffbb63a29f0d9bb33 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 222545Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=368 · answer · meta · seal 350133387c323aabfd349df1c4460d87214908136a7dc661aa5dfb1ec3bf83f9 · link ec5850c57b744e17186fbbff43dc607b22ac4fd7029d80bb420466371cbfb845 — forecast · league · Pro league · stamped in 222636Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=369 · bench · nemotron · seal 66676d0153acfce4e844c490c6e1881cc4a254cd2cc46b84414dd12d7322010d · link 69bc89286e51c551bc385adaedc09ea9897c12fb300aad3dfa2c79a5101be44e — league · Pro league · stamped later in 233439Z.txt (2026-10-25 23:34:39 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=370 · bench · deepseek · seal b338c60b6cd1c55904f2b0f40c3b44668141e6cfdc67f6501e053ea7337c1c08 · link f58c76b2b85064aa2a73514105bf9ae41682af3a3ce10beb57d3d1fa9d8c5260 — league · Pro league · stamped later in 233439Z.txt (2026-10-25 23:34:39 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=371 · bench · nova · seal cc32670ea3cbd3f489bf5d9c15d7f45b2ece7ad340ab515ff660270c15ab2ee7 · link 6980649c4cb8720024e3fcc85e0841cc5d400b811f973bd833b02d4471d2cf03 — league · Pro league · stamped later in 233439Z.txt (2026-10-25 23:34:39 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  17. n=372 · bench · meta · seal dc1351015bf4bb157e628c081f934f88fd837f29b5cb0c46c48bdfeff659f336 · link 778ed39e243f4d87231c813abe0b867ebe0613c0a69866568e153941134a11fc — league · Pro league · stamped later in 233439Z.txt (2026-10-25 23:34:39 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →