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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-26-am

All answers were on a signed list before the open: answers sealed in the book 10:43:52–12:24:06 UTC; lists signed by the timestamp services DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo at 12:16:31 and 12:24:19 UTC (the latest — Step 5 Preview, 1 h 5 min before the open).

Hash of the run: dda2828e65ed2ec4e7ed4aecdf8dfb4f0bb9ffabbc344298710af366a69a6a39 · sealed 2026-10-26T12:16:30Z

Covers lines 375–389 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-26 12:16:30 UTC, seal updated 2026-10-26 12:24:18 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. bd154951cdc55b7f201c161bb6ad2152112dec44b2b71203364e58c07e6c48de — as at 2026-10-26 10:40:59 UTC, lines 375–376, list 104059Z.txt
  2. a79415331bc7b22e3b7a243db5f16072430565768b213b509422a44982a289e3 — as at 2026-10-26 12:16:31 UTC, lines 375–387, list 121631Z.txt
  3. dda2828e65ed2ec4e7ed4aecdf8dfb4f0bb9ffabbc344298710af366a69a6a39 — as at 2026-10-26 12:24:18 UTC, lines 375–389 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–387 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 575ee18abfd641dc9b8f40dd1768f5c6851f41ff44d2d97a1438736915011594

The intake for the score closed at Mon, Oct 26, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-26T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 12:24:06 UTC
  4. hash of the run sealed
  5. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 12:24:19 UTC
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=377) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Claude10:40:5910:58:24 19c8ada5c44en=384 · 12:16:30105957Z.txt93 s
council · step 1Gemini10:40:5910:45:25 365d17bf6fb4n=379 · 12:16:30104653Z.txt88 s
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)10:40:5910:56:51 fa46d1bd0e9en=383 · 12:16:30105957Z.txt186 s
council · step 1Grok10:40:5910:43:52 61a5008fbb9cn=378 · 12:16:30104352Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Meta AI10:40:5912:13:55 6efdc1dfb970n=386 · 12:16:30121411Z.txt15 s
council · step 1Qwen10:40:5910:46:13 f419b92690f3n=380 · 12:16:30104653Z.txt39 s
council · step 1ChatGPT10:40:5910:56:48 70cb1325db6dn=382 · 12:16:30105649Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Kimi10:40:5911:05:54 f6659d8e27dcn=385 · 12:16:30110555Z.txt1 s
council · step 1Z.ai10:40:5910:47:45 ffbf6fd67f2an=381 · 12:16:30104955Z.txt129 s
council · step 1DeepSeek10:40:59————
council · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (search)10:40:59————
council · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)10:41:00————
council · step 1Amazon Nova10:41:00————
council · step 1Step 5 Preview10:41:00————
council · step 2Step 5 Preview12:16:3312:24:03 d8f4fd58e6d0n=389 · 12:24:18122406Z.txt3 s
council-bench-retry-portfolioMeta AI13:24:2213:38:08 9cfbb3ff6c2f———

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
013626Z.txt1–373a4d5b98d966af80a…
033651Z.txt1–373a4d5b98d966af80a…
050011Z.txt1–37426533e8239a9abe0…
053852Z.txt1–37426533e8239a9abe0…
073532Z.txt1–37426533e8239a9abe0…
093430Z.txt1–37426533e8239a9abe0…
104059Z.txt1–37625e00aa9ea04fe41…
104101Z.txt1–37625e00aa9ea04fe41…
104352Z.txt1–37625e00aa9ea04fe41…
104408Z.txt1–37625e00aa9ea04fe41…
104433Z.txt1–37625e00aa9ea04fe41…
104653Z.txt1–37625e00aa9ea04fe41…
104955Z.txt1–37625e00aa9ea04fe41…
105649Z.txt1–37625e00aa9ea04fe41…
105957Z.txt1–37625e00aa9ea04fe41…
110555Z.txt1–37625e00aa9ea04fe41…
113614Z.txt1–37625e00aa9ea04fe41…
121411Z.txt1–37625e00aa9ea04fe41…
121631Z.txt1–387575ee18abfd641dc…
121637Z.txt1–387575ee18abfd641dc…
122406Z.txt1–387575ee18abfd641dc…
122419Z.txt1–3896d11f69c2cb90b5e…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Each answer: when its list was signed
verdict file

Lists signed: 12:16:31, 12:24:19 · answers sealed in the book 10:43:52–12:24:06 · public: 12:40 (UTC)

Files: council-run-facts.json · council-late-cells.json

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

23 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

archive.org · 2026-10-26 13:24 UTC

✓ Offline check of the release: OK on 2026-10-26 · python3 -I <DIR>/tools/verify_all.py <DIR> · offline-check.json

✓ Brier recount: 14,554 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-26 14:11:54 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 383 of 383 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=375 · cb_packet · · seal 6235d088471a4349be41dfb90c845432f8ce35630e662c9887e729acd4f2ec5a · link 3bf987cd5a0f1400b3697d67d948c42b9f02584c5c91c5704f3af4a0d9f90902 — a record of the book · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=376 · swap · · seal e748b3cae88237e93bd08938b087aff871f42f6767e25d6d8bf54b54077dddc0 · link 0775d3a0db782185393ac1d4ea5e36bc58e82402de319e35a77eb9a0eb953e7c — a record of the book · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=377 · run · · seal 9aac7d12a4f48eef7c5eef749882eeac932447b7bdd4b71397c34b1a7737c048 · link e820059672e02718e051e060c9d1210793b3d5c12485971ab026a51449b861e7 — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=378 · answer · grok · seal 03eed423d3e7b8c1817f836a476297d75dc89f381bb2456000c4fba516552fea · link 4cedd7cc1b959e5bf6becfa4d9a466b27176ec79f0fbe8991ed53753d1df1798 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=379 · answer · gemini · seal 440c952c27b2f0f8400fc60c483bba5e42c3c733988906283d182cc8c5dfc7f8 · link 66a2a04b665d798e2c82a4d9644e8c4ed162387cfe7df5b77e2f1e7194e6eb18 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=380 · answer · qwen · seal 9fd4940346e17522549d4903cf190eb43485b4f540a3cb76eb2889b1fbce58fc · link fb0d251780b44c76b917afbcb113c2c3a0eb2da95142da7074c4393b68fed1b1 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=381 · answer · zai · seal 872049fb728b5cef5572b0a6ef2859ceb39de94917528a604814bfc9b6d30732 · link b1a5e17c62a030748bc098aa7bb3131fae2afaab90bfa2e42f8e8720933f4a9b — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=382 · answer · chatgpt · seal 6b9a470b84f384d60605a7a9c8afc3c2b4b71440473a8d4805eb1f95111d579b · link 3fac9b2a1b87788aec62b943a87bcdcaa72face27140cc4e8558078bc2f82219 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=383 · answer · mimo · seal 6f06ba26ffbde1cd891ecffbedd2cc708284c7a76bacd23c91fc6867ac364e3c · link 0ab26b7a70147f5e722b8c54f3b318043af729cf5e2c46f5ade162ebc2728522 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=384 · answer · claude · seal 9bc38fe857ab8f4bc3c4f87641b4aeefff022311c53745f6cc6cb457cd1da727 · link 59d7beb81b10dd11ec366b2d4d5a35c79e31418496f2132e2a689d0790f06e1c — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=385 · answer · kimi · seal a693a3b80ebd1b6954a25cc84c9460b1c15c3a8fc66a8a29a9e49f9a44a06a7c · link f4d097d3ee12211d5ddc0bef2a863cbab5030968ad6131cd10d69bbb37a18c61 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=386 · answer · meta · seal 65541436f316cc7c4e9cc29088648c4759f6a9ffc19a5fa35099d6e91b854d36 · link b931a74ae5b3b912a7ea90ee2db07a500cbfcb75efb7187550f0522d59e76f07 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=387 · raw_page · nemotron · seal 78cbf4371b2e04c392ba6cb101c9e24e27d19d0730159c0f694dbe5fc011f6c0 · link ac08e40746e1d700da12240d58e3a121d998575b981d28f7d668c71c74759474 — a record of the book · stamped in 121631Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=388 · ask_version · · seal f224b4490119c08c158739379e6accbfb39470485b8e68ad67b1daf48c3798ae · link 0964d5611850fbcd5e7f810ca46266129f5d61612a9acb23b4d6d193a1b0fda8 — a record of the book · stamped in 122419Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  15. n=389 · answer · stepfun · seal 2b7287b4031529407d79c38b1a5fb6faa1e0fcaad9f03980380a9900759012a6 · link 66210de439ec61faf7104f9cd50dda4b5eec5d3f037333f63bf017836f78fd1d — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 122419Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  16. n=390 · bench · meta · seal ba79f8b2bcf4e6053ddc1206f5a086e467c82cc951d2e4e721aa5af91e03a919 · link 10081c962421656ab3798d108f2dba5840b66faf5c79139ca05259117073c2ca — league · asked again · stamped later in 133809Z.txt (2026-10-26 13:38:09 UTC, not on this page yet): OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →