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AI Council · Markets — proof 2026-10-27-am

All answers were on a signed list before the open: answers sealed in the book 10:44:04–12:13:42 UTC; the list signed by the timestamp services DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo at 12:15:31 UTC (1 h 14 min before the open).

Hash of the run: 39b01c44606a72168649c6822525fff84dc4e9172b2f1e4437a67f310d68ca22 · sealed 2026-10-27T12:15:31Z

Covers lines 454–467 of the Council’s book (the run’s lines). Sealed 2026-10-27 12:15:31 UTC, seal updated 2026-10-27 13:24:17 UTC.

Every hash of this run, with its time:

  1. 71c7a162afca22cfdc953aa5a4261b2b11294c86345a496f8fc63d80225777ad — as at 2026-10-27 10:40:33 UTC, lines 454–455, list 104033Z.txt
  2. 038893f9af1a2cb6fba76dd731ce73982a6360581a466044924cfe6e49940f16 — as at 2026-10-27 12:15:31 UTC, lines 454–464, list 121531Z.txt
  3. 39b01c44606a72168649c6822525fff84dc4e9172b2f1e4437a67f310d68ca22 — as at 2026-10-27 13:24:17 UTC, lines 454–467 — the hash above

A new line only adds to the book: its lines 1–464 keep the same bytes in every later list, sha256 c1a08bd12708da7757e4b712ce4a8252584eefd67d77421e7e48d47687e6e4c5

The intake for the score closed at Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 9:30 AM ET (2026-10-27T13:30:00Z). Each model's line sealed last before it counts (marked below); a line sealed later is scored from its own reference price, the first price after its seal.

The run’s day, step by step
  1. prices snapshot
  2. the question and the roster sealed, the question sent
  3. answers sealed in the book, the last at 12:13:42 UTC
  4. lists signed by the timestamp services, the last at 12:15:31 UTC
  5. hash of the run sealed
  6. seal updated with the run’s next line
  7. the open: intake closes, reference prices

What the lines are. The forecast score takes the issue's answers (lines “answer”), one line of each model — marked below. Lines “bench” are decisions of the AI Portfolio League (the league and the Pro league): they go into the league, not into the forecast score. One model can have both: a forecast in the morning and a new league decision later.

Every line of the book (daily/council/book.jsonl) is chained by sha256 (seal / prev / link) and the books are stamped in OpenTimestamps by the engine. The texts of the lines are published after the score of the day.

Who is in the league in this issue

The roster is sealed in the run line (n=456) before any answer. The Council gives the forecasts and trades in the league; the bench trades in the league only. The roster as one file (JSON) →

USA

China

Stamped lists (OpenTimestamps)

Check without us — or both files on opentimestamps.org: ots verify <file>.txt.ots · shasum -a 256 book.jsonl

Check the seal in one click

Your browser downloads the open book and the stamped list, hashes the first N lines of the book named in the list (SHA-256 by WebCrypto, the bytes as stored) and shows both hashes in full — the list’s and its own — with N and the book’s length today, and compares the link of line N with the list’s “last link”. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Hash by line count, as stored: head -n N, nothing else. A filter by time drops the answers booked in the stamp’s own second, and jq re-serialises the bytes — either gives another hash.

Who was asked

Each step seals its roster before its first question: who it asks and the spares.

Each answer, step by step

For every step of the run: when each model was sent the question, when its raw answer came back (with the answer's sha256), the line of the Council's book that holds it, and the first stamped list that covers the raw answer. Times in UTC.

StepModelSentRaw answerBook lineStamped listStamped after
council · step 1Gemini10:40:3310:47:44 6a0b7d6ca7d2n=459 · 12:15:31105005Z.txt140 s
council · step 1Claude10:40:3310:56:11 2a39a5683cacn=462 · 12:15:31105611Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Meta AI10:40:3312:13:42 4c2b065e16c7n=464 · 12:15:31121342Z.txt0 s
council · step 1Grok10:40:3310:44:04 e53777f083c8n=457 · 12:15:31104404Z.txt0 s
council · step 1ChatGPT10:40:33————
council · step 1Kimi10:40:3311:00:03 86ff11083fb8n=463 · 12:15:31110005Z.txt1 s
council · step 1Qwen10:40:3310:45:41 c406bfa3ef13n=458 · 12:15:31104705Z.txt83 s
council · step 1MiMo (Xiaomi)10:40:3310:48:45 c97693cddc3en=460 · 12:15:31105005Z.txt80 s
council · step 1Z.ai10:40:3310:48:45 455a26e06507n=461 · 12:15:31105005Z.txt80 s
council · step 1DeepSeek10:40:33————
council · step 1Nemotron + Mercury (search)10:40:33————
council · step 1Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)10:40:33————
council · step 1Step 5 Preview10:40:33————
council · step 1Amazon Nova10:40:33————
council · step 2ChatGPT12:15:33————
council · step 2Step 5 Preview12:15:33————
council · step 2Nemotron + Mercury (search)12:15:33————
council · step 2Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)12:20:12————
council · step 3Step 5 Preview13:30:34————
council · step 3ChatGPT13:30:34————
council · step 3Nemotron + Mercury (search)13:30:34————
council · step 3Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)13:35:14————
council-mod2Claude14:12:1714:26:16 5f75d6d422c3———
council · step 4ChatGPT14:30:06————
council · step 4Step 5 Preview14:30:06————
council · step 4Nemotron + Mercury (search)14:30:06————
council · step 4Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)14:34:45————

Each answer line of the book carries its raw answer's sha256 and line number in the asks book (raw_answer_sha256, raw_answer_n), so every line of the book points back to its raw answer. council-answer-lag.json · council-attempts.csv · asks.jsonl

Which list covers which lines of the book

Bytes: the file as stored (UTF-8, no BOM, nothing re-encoded); a line ends with LF; the sha256 of N lines covers lines 1..N, each with its LF; a last line without LF is not counted yet. Check: head -n N daily/council/book.jsonl | shasum -a 256

stamped listlines of the Council’s booksha256
001212Z.txt1–423e111df8092a1ce43…
001618Z.txt1–423e111df8092a1ce43…
001919Z.txt1–423e111df8092a1ce43…
002727Z.txt1–426797110287c2e3c36…
011333Z.txt1–426797110287c2e3c36…
011437Z.txt1–426797110287c2e3c36…
011545Z.txt1–426797110287c2e3c36…
011730Z.txt1–426797110287c2e3c36…
013334Z.txt1–4323cfeff8e836a7d42…
013338Z.txt1–4323cfeff8e836a7d42…
013447Z.txt1–4399c9dc35f18180db6…
021233Z.txt1–4399c9dc35f18180db6…
021300Z.txt1–4399c9dc35f18180db6…
021345Z.txt1–4413438ca8ddd2bf453…
022106Z.txt1–4413438ca8ddd2bf453…
022456Z.txt1–4413438ca8ddd2bf453…
022746Z.txt1–444a366b51343e9db50…
025230Z.txt1–444a366b51343e9db50…
031221Z.txt1–444a366b51343e9db50…
031530Z.txt1–444a366b51343e9db50…
032108Z.txt1–444a366b51343e9db50…
033638Z.txt1–444a366b51343e9db50…
034240Z.txt1–4461f216a240c88412b…
041300Z.txt1–4461f216a240c88412b…
041806Z.txt1–4461f216a240c88412b…
041914Z.txt1–4461f216a240c88412b…
042642Z.txt1–4487f252ba7b0eed9d0…
050016Z.txt1–4501b4ab05412bf8e1d…
053355Z.txt1–4501b4ab05412bf8e1d…
061214Z.txt1–4501b4ab05412bf8e1d…
061745Z.txt1–4501b4ab05412bf8e1d…
062828Z.txt1–4501b4ab05412bf8e1d…
070009Z.txt1–4520d8dff0a4c3eecb0…
071225Z.txt1–4520d8dff0a4c3eecb0…
072040Z.txt1–45389a24bfdc6647fd7…
073414Z.txt1–45389a24bfdc6647fd7…
081234Z.txt1–45389a24bfdc6647fd7…
083940Z.txt1–45389a24bfdc6647fd7…
093441Z.txt1–45389a24bfdc6647fd7…
104033Z.txt1–4550314cc2edfb3216e…
104035Z.txt1–4550314cc2edfb3216e…
104240Z.txt1–4550314cc2edfb3216e…
104404Z.txt1–4550314cc2edfb3216e…
104434Z.txt1–4550314cc2edfb3216e…
104705Z.txt1–4550314cc2edfb3216e…
105005Z.txt1–4550314cc2edfb3216e…
105611Z.txt1–4550314cc2edfb3216e…
110005Z.txt1–4550314cc2edfb3216e…
113444Z.txt1–4550314cc2edfb3216e…
121342Z.txt1–4550314cc2edfb3216e…
121531Z.txt1–464c1a08bd12708da77…
121946Z.txt1–464c1a08bd12708da77…
122012Z.txt1–464c1a08bd12708da77…
132417Z.txt1–46743fab5230bce73c4…

Two outside clocks on every stamped list

Each answer: when its list was signed
verdict file

Lists signed: 12:15:31 · answers sealed in the book 10:44:04–12:13:42 · public: 12:16 (UTC)

Files: council-run-facts.json · council-late-cells.json

RFC 3161: each service signs the exact time. OpenTimestamps: a calendar’s receipt only accepts the hash and states no time of its own; the Bitcoin block fixes it — the list existed no later than a few hours after the block’s header time (a header time may sit up to about 2 h from the real moment: the consensus tolerance).

Chain of lists

Every question sent is sealed before its answer

42 questions of this run are sealed in the chain asks.jsonl, each with a send time earlier than its answer. The text of each is kept in asked/. asks.jsonl

council-ask-parts.json

Which run counts

From Oct 21: the scheduled morning run counts; the others are for reference (sealed text in Russian).

sealed text (sha256 c24b0d4f18654273cd9c97a49ef590c5af070f59c427bf2670fa84a2d3335df5) ▾

с 21.10: засчитывается утренний прогон по расписанию, остальные справочные

From session 11 (Nov 2, 2026): within a run, the first well-formed answer line of each seat sealed before the reference counts; the later lines of the same seat are published beside it, outside the count.

sealed text (sha256 0f42c93b902b411dc1a36579a6529266ed9c83f7dd22ade65b0efb8363b0b6cd) ▾

from session 11 (2026-11-02): within a run, each seat's first well-formed answer line sealed before the reference counts; later lines of the same seat are labelled retries

archive.org · 2026-10-27 14:26 UTC

✓ Brier recount: 15,731 values, all exact, 0 differences · 2026-10-27 13:49:08 UTC · environment.json

Check it yourself

Needs OpenSSL 3 or newer (macOS: Homebrew openssl; the system LibreSSL has no working ts command).

Digests of the stamped lists on an append-only public log (Sigstore Rekor): 513 of 513 · the log entries · public key

<DIR> — your folder (keep the quotes) with council/asks.jsonl (asks.jsonl from api/v1) and, for the lists, seals/<day>/<time>Z.txt with their .ots; run the commands from the folder that holds tools/. Exit code 1 with «matches» means the roster marks a seat that was not asked — a mark in the data, not a break of the chain.

Roots of freetsa: freetsa-cacert.pem · freetsa-tsa.crt

Checks by others

Checked something here? Publish your check as a record with a DOI (Zenodo, OSF, Figshare or any DataCite repository; free, no account with us), fill its description from the template in the register and relate it to DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23552700 as “Reviews”. The register reads the public DataCite index a few times a day and lists it. third-party-checks.json

Copies of sealed lines

In this run no line repeats another line cell for cell: nothing is counted twice. The copies of all runs: council-forecasts-copies.csv

Lines of the book

  1. n=454 · cb_packet · · seal 8999bff29091dde9af82a5187df5d7ca96303a4e3ee627f1305f9febb2cda08b · link 0420514be1496c3cfbe9dd76ef6006977c91e780afa7dae4def97f8130bdcf1b — a record of the book · stamped in 121531Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  2. n=455 · swap · · seal bb9a48c06c10fa2a86e8a436c3ab01662bd404ae9715a89f08486f426872d772 · link 07080b76c513121fdbfe789b7dd3b834f386ade93ac4afa3c90be734a96642eb — a record of the book · stamped in 121531Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  3. n=456 · run · · seal 01695f7c86c3b1b24cf9c86c8bba1521acb4bb6f31463a45fb12ccb1fe34a4cc · link 655bfbf2364d8c38f26472248230e86deba5c3026925d603f52c9812f365a7dd — the question and the roster, sealed before the answers · stamped in 121531Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  4. n=457 · answer · grok · seal c1169c49054f79e3c4109fb174b8095e579fa8603658ea333368341dbe6f4a36 · link b4f2cffaa6a948368afbb6252b9bf5f3521ac3354f60da6c59ce900be000a50f — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121531Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  5. n=458 · answer · qwen · seal 646a02e7583a57ce29689910bb2d44bf0c1f260427f8be45038c30a71d0f2d83 · link bf31a2ce69173bd8d43d4f148dae3738bbdb8477b38cdffcd0a23cb96aa442fc — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121531Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  6. n=459 · answer · gemini · seal 0af8e21f8e895444e5d858b6a83579f87581d542aabdea5c670834dd698a0a11 · link 7853eaab644d874922cbe1789da211b857fd22ca8f2f60661999d24de6906ac3 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121531Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  7. n=460 · answer · mimo · seal 82f1721b6cb4da86806af81a1375a7035f8ab1312cfadd87974079cbdff39ae7 · link b6313342ad20d4860a38288a813d7e9a6168e453038b0c8536ed634b6e3cf818 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121531Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  8. n=461 · answer · zai · seal 45302c00b4bef3e1474be88f83194add6c081352f4658a82f8f0feef048baf11 · link ed4ecf8e8f00a31acd8acc4832be1a42e30e6ad80916df6ad59b43bc6dc9d722 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121531Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  9. n=462 · answer · claude · seal 33f96b58a6ef588e0a6e2cc5ed57595a965b8f4fd1a80988f2b2672eaf3ff86c · link 56b2e099423d756512d9c862effe7804be52dd882c09fa4314ba39335759d503 — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121531Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  10. n=463 · answer · kimi · seal 8700f53b53a8f58e76c27f7ee4aac319de72e7f329a9b819d8c081e9932114e3 · link e6017980de651560031c668dd4e8786717694506e87a10ab95e58c35f27c9e9d — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121531Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  11. n=464 · answer · meta · seal 9174114add6c1fb02ef7692c042b60667f83567f978f7c7d4f8856038df2e209 · link 92a0cf916a584ed55249dd1ced9aed87433e7272e8ee14e4a344737f8971afdb — forecast · league · Pro league · counted in the score · stamped in 121531Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  12. n=465 · ask_version · · seal 2edb22b95ee0429b8c03198500bbcc15f29b60f44ab60ebf74c1501ee8d631fc · link 0aa9a8e6507e4e298bb291d630d1ffbc57479bf34af89807ce81b5af10b7d8ed — a record of the book · stamped in 132417Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  13. n=466 · raw_page · chatgpt · seal 933229d2e5a194374e8eb80cf4fe06afdb31419e98fc2facb5ba775e2d7e7ece · link b1fd528552d71828f43e1e288578a2af1bc39414fd63d9b1f48664daf78ccabe — a record of the book · stamped in 132417Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo
  14. n=467 · raw_page · nemotron · seal 04a3fc68e50dbe30cb77a854c3fe5e330b918cd7d85cdd69a9efd13b0682d17e · link a090f8ab73459157bfb030b07c60b486eba63427b9b2bc1b1f5cbdd645a8d80e — a record of the book · stamped in 132417Z.txt: OpenTimestamps, DigiCert, FreeTSA, Sectigo

Method and conflicts →