From the trend: Engineer accused of hiding a microphone in his company's meeting room
Will at least 5 big news outlets report on Monday's hearing?
Forecast before the AIs
Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.
Will at least 5 big news outlets report on Monday's hearing?
At the time of the question: at least 3 of 10 wrote about the arrest
We’ll know the answer
Yes — 7 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸Grok🇨🇳StepFun🇨🇳MiMo🇨🇳Kimi🇺🇸Meta🇨🇳Wenxin🇨🇳Z.ai
Grok: High-profile OpenAI case draws major outlets to cover any hearing outcome
No — 3 AIsYou are here
🇺🇸ChatGPT🇺🇸Claude🇺🇸Gemini
ChatGPT: The arrest attracted widespread coverage, but routine custody hearings rarely generate five separate national stories.
We check it on: apnews.com
We’ll know the answer
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How we will check the answer
We check it on: apnews.com
The answer is due on Oct 20, 2026.
When the day comes, an AI judge that searches the web checks the answer. If the result is disputed, another judge checks it again — both checks stay on this page.
Exact wording, as the AIs got it (in English)
By 2026-10-20T19:00Z (Tuesday, noon Pacific Time), will at least 5 of these 10 outlets publish an article about what happened at the October 19 court hearing in the OpenAI recording-device case: Associated Press, Reuters, CBS News, NBC News, CNN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, BBC, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal? Check: each outlet's website and its search for 'Alfozan'. If no hearing is held, the answer is No.
Fingerprint matches ✓
The question and the AIs’ chances are exactly as they were when we sealed them.
Sealed by us on . Sent to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us, 5 days before the answer was due. Waiting to be fixed for good.
A fingerprint is a short code taken from a record when it is written. Change even one letter and the code is different.
The fingerprint itself, line 51 of the book: 72144c28e6f692e87d8a50ce25c5872b852b457b086a4439135ad3733281e7a8
Check it yourself, without us
- The book of questions: duels.jsonl
- The list we sent and the registry’s answer: polya1-trends-2026-10-15-033421Z.txt · polya1-trends-2026-10-15-033421Z.txt.ots
- The first 51 lines of the book give the same number as the list:
head -n 51 duels.jsonl | shasum -a 256
- The registry’s answer shows when the list existed:
ots verify polya1-trends-2026-10-15-033421Z.txt.ots
or drop both files on opentimestamps.org.