Oct 13, 2026New trend every hour

Trend of the day · businessbusiness · Oct 13, 2026

Argentina finds out today how fast prices rose in September

The AIs see a slow leak, not a crisis: pesos left sitting still lose about a quarter of their value a year.

USA6.8:China7.1

average of its top 5 AIs← Before: Shanghai wants almost half of its family cars to be electric by 2030

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Yes or no? You first — then we show what 10 AIs answered.

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They agree: 9 of 10: savings left in plain pesos lose value, so put them to work.
They split: ChatGPT says July pay beat prices; Kimi and Grok say wages still lag.
Not obvious: The dollar is forecast up 11.5% a year and prices about 25%, so dollars lose too.
What to do: Ask your employer for a pay review every three months, not once a year.
What to watch: If October's figure, out in mid-November, stays below 1.9%, the slow leak holds.
Only one AI: Only Meta AI: shoppers bought 1.1% less in August despite slower inflation.

Read in full

Most answers agree that a monthly rise near 1.9% is a slow leak, not a new crisis. It adds up to about 25–30% a year, and food is rising faster than the average. Money kept as cash, or in a plain fixed-term deposit (a bank deposit locked for a set time) paying roughly 18–23% a year, loses value. Sellers who leave prices unchanged quietly lose their profit.

They split on wages. ChatGPT cites official data showing pay rose 2.8% in July against 2.1% inflation. Kimi, Grok, Nova and DeepSeek say most workers are still falling behind. Kimi puts the gap at about six points.

They also split on prices: Gemini tells sellers to keep prices steady to protect sales, while Kimi, Z.ai, DeepSeek and MiMo say to reprice every week based on what it will cost to restock. On savings, Qwen and Nova say to move into dollars. ChatGPT, Z.ai and Meta AI suggest a mix.

The mix looks wiser. The central bank's survey of forecasters expects the official dollar at about 1,614 pesos in December, only 11.5% above a year earlier, which is well below price rises.

Dollars protect you against a sudden drop in the peso, but they do not keep up with steady price rises. The stronger answers pair a small dollar reserve with peso savings that earn interest every day or follow inflation, such as UVA deposits (bank deposits whose value rises with prices).

What a person can do: buy staples early in the month and push for pay reviews every three months. Avoid credit-card debt, because its interest rate is far above inflation.

Savers can check the yearly rate before locking money away and split savings between a fund that pays daily interest and some dollars. Online sellers can price from the cost of replacing their stock, collect payment within days and move idle cash into an account that earns interest every night.

They split: ChatGPT says July pay beat prices; Kimi and Grok say wages still lag.
What settles the dispute: The official wage figures for August and September will show if pay keeps up.

AIs from China named specific savings tools and rates; most AIs from the USA gave more general advice.Only the AIs from one country noticed: AIs from China: plain bank deposits pay 18–23% a year while prices rise about 30%.

What is confirmed and what is not

Confirmed by a source Forecasters see the dollar at 1,614 pesos in December, up 11.5% in a year
Confirmed by a source Large bank deposits are forecast to pay about 23.5% a year in December
The AIs' conclusion Pay keeps up only where raises come often, not once a year

The AIs read 46 sources

El rebote solo serviría para recordarnos que el proceso de baja de la inflación no es lineal
— Julián Neufeld, an economist at Fundación Libertad y Progreso · lanacion.com.ar

Ask any AI yourself

I live in Argentina and have 500,000 pesos saved. How should I split them between a daily-interest fund, an inflation-linked deposit and dollars?

Copy it and paste it into a chat with any AI

Ask several AIs at once — in our app

Who wins, who loses: Sellers who reprice fast and savers who earn interest win; cash at home loses.

The final answer, by Claude Opus

All 10 answers ↓▶ Watch how it came together

Argentina's national statistics office (INDEC) publishes how much prices rose in September on October 13, 2026. Forecasters expect about 1.9% for the month, after 1.7% in August.

The Argentine newspaper La Nación reported this (source).

What does this figure mean for people living in Argentina? What is likely to happen to prices, wages, savings and the peso in the coming months? What should an ordinary family, a saver and a small online seller in Argentina do now?

What the world's 10 leading AIs think

1ChatGPTUSA8.7Prices will keep rising: protect your savings and business profits
For ordinary Argentines, slower inflation does not mean falling prices: at 1.9% a month, a basket costing 100,000 pesos would cost about 101,900 pesos one month later. Wages protect purchasing power only when raises beat inflation; Argentina's July wage index rose 2.8% against 2.1% inflation, although individual workers may fare differently (indec.gob.ar).
The central bank's September survey predicts monthly inflation of 1.7% in October, 1.6% in November and 1.8% in December, while the official dollar rate averages 1,614 pesos in December versus 1,545 in October, suggesting continued price increases and gradual peso weakness rather than an inevitable currency crisis (bcra.gob.ar).
For small online businesses, the danger is that replacing stock becomes more expensive than expected, quietly eating into profits. Wholesale prices already rose 2.1% in August, and a weaker peso could make imported products and materials costlier (indec.gob.ar).
Sellers cannot assume customers will accept every price increase, so tracking actual profit after delivery, marketplace fees and discounts matters more than simply increasing sales.
Families should review food and transport spending weekly, compare prices, build an emergency reserve and request regular wage adjustments rather than waiting for annual raises. Savers should keep money needed for immediate expenses accessible in pesos, compare interest earned with inflation after fees and taxes, and consider dividing longer-term savings between suitable regulated peso investments and legally purchased dollars; neither offers guaranteed protection.
Online sellers should update prices whenever suppliers change theirs, recalculate profit on each product, avoid lengthy fixed-price promises and maintain enough working cash to restock without expensive borrowing.
Model: GPT-6 · mode: Extra high · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: By November 12, 2026, the Argentine central bank's October Market Expectations Survey will show a median forecast of at least 1,625 pesos per US dollar for the average official exchange rate in December 2026. — 48% by Nov 12, 2026
2KimiChina8.1Prices rise two percent a month, quietly eating wages and savings
For an ordinary person, life keeps getting a bit more expensive every month. Prices are rising about 2% monthly and near 30% for the year, with food rising faster than average, while most union wage deals add only 1.6% to 1.9% per month — just enough to tread water, not to get ahead. Economists estimate salaries still need about six points more to catch up with 2026 prices, so every trip to the supermarket feels a little tighter.
For savings and business, holding pesos still loses money. Bank fixed-term deposits pay roughly 18% to 23% a year while prices climb around 30%, so the interest does not cover what your money loses; meanwhile the informal dollar sits near 1,540 pesos, almost level with the official rate, showing calm for now. A small online seller faces monthly cost creep on stock, shipping and fuel, so yesterday's prices quietly become losing prices.
What to do now: as a family, buy durable goods early in the month and big-ticket items before the next price round, and don't leave spare cash sitting idle. As a saver, prefer inflation-linked (UVA) deposits or dollars over a plain fixed-term deposit that pays below inflation. As a seller, review prices weekly, price against the cost of replacing your stock rather than what you paid, and collect payments quickly before the peso shrinks.
Model: Kimi K3 · mode: High · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: In INDEC's November 12, 2026 release, the food and non-alcoholic beverages category will show a monthly rise above the general consumer price index for October 2026. — 62% by Nov 12, 2026
=3Meta AIUSA7.8Prices still climb near 2% a month, squeeze eases slowly
Prices are creeping up again after the slowest month in over a year. If shops raise prices about 1.9% in a month, 100,000 pesos of groceries becomes 101,900, and food has been rising even faster, near 3% in private checks. That means families feel poorer for a few weeks until wages and pensions catch up with the same figure.
For a small online seller, costs for meat, vegetables and fuel are up, so margins shrink unless you raise prices. Demand is soft because households bought 1.1% less in August even with slower inflation, and cheap imports add pressure. Sales may bounce near month-end when pensions are paid with the new index, but you cannot count on steady growth.
Families should buy staples early in the month, compare prices, and keep extra pesos in a high-interest account, not cash at home. Savers should not hold pesos long; short-term deposits that track inflation and a small dollar buffer help protect value when the blue dollar is already near 1,540. Sellers should reprice in pesos often, keep stock light on perishables, and offer small bundles to keep customers buying.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 · mode: Thinking · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: City of Buenos Aires (IPCBA) reports October 2026 monthly inflation at 1.7% or less — 55% by Nov 10, 2026
=3Z.aiChina7.8Inflation tamed but not dead: Argentine prices still up 25% a year
At about 2% a month, prices still rise roughly 25% a year: 100,000 pesos of shopping today will cost close to 125,000 in twelve months. The difference from the old Argentina is that this is now a slow leak, not a burst — salaries and pensions that adjust regularly roughly hold their value. Expect the dollar to keep climbing in small official steps of about 1–2% a month, so the peso loses value slowly, both at home and against the dollar.
For savers, loose pesos are the worst option: idle cash loses a quarter of its buying power in a year. The usual shield is a mix of dollars and peso funds that pay interest daily; a fixed term only makes sense if it pays above roughly 25% a year. For a small online seller, inflation is a silent margin killer — stock, shipping and packaging costs rise weekly while your listed prices stand still.
A family should buy staples ahead of month-end when they are on sale, avoid credit-card debt (its rate is far above inflation) and push for salary reviews every three months instead of once a year. A saver should split money between a daily-interest fund and dollars, and check the rate before locking anything away. A seller should reprice weekly, collect within days of each sale, and sweep idle cash into an interest-bearing account every night.
Model: GLM-5.3 · mode: Deep Think Max · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: On DolarHoy, the dólar blue's selling price stays below 1,700 pesos on every trading day in November 2026. — 62% by Nov 30, 2026
5DeepSeekChina7.3Argentina inflation near 2% monthly quietly erodes peso savings and wages
For an ordinary family, prices are still rising about 1.9% each month, roughly 30% over the year. The average salary increase is around 27%, so workers lose a little ground. A traditional peso fixed deposit pays about 1.6% monthly, less than inflation, so money in the bank slowly buys less.
For a small online seller, restocking costs climb every month. If you do not raise prices every 30 days, your margin shrinks fast. The peso is expected to weaken about 16–17% over 2026, so holding pesos for too long between a sale and a restock quietly cuts your profit.
What to do now: savers should use inflation-linked tools like plazo fijo UVA or CER bonds, and consider dollar-linked options like MEP for part of their money. Families should avoid long-term fixed-rate peso debt and pay bills on time. Online sellers should review prices weekly, aim for at least a 20% net margin, and keep cash in instruments that adjust with inflation.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash · mode: DeepThink · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: INDEC will report October 2026 monthly inflation at 1.8% or lower — 55% by Nov 12, 2026

6MiMoChina6.9Prices keep climbing about 2% a month, eating pay and savings
A 1.9% monthly rise means everyday prices go up roughly a quarter over a year, so money kept in a bank account loses buying power fast. Wages and pensions usually adjust with a lag, so families feel poorer even when their pay number rises (source: lanacion.com.ar).
For shops and small online sellers, costs keep moving: suppliers, freight and fees all rise month after month. That is why sellers reprice often, keep little stock and try to get paid quickly rather than granting long payment terms.
What to do now: keep only a small cushion in pesos for daily spending, hold longer-term savings in something that beats inflation where that is allowed and available, review prices and wages at least monthly, and avoid long fixed prices and heavy peso debt.
Big purchases, if needed, are better made sooner rather than later. Official data on prices, wages and the exchange rate is published by INDEC and the central bank (sources: indec.gob.ar, bcra.gob.ar).
Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: INDEC's November 2026 monthly consumer price rise, published in December 2026, will come in below 1.8%. — 55% by Dec 10, 2026
7GrokUSA6.6Prices still rise near 2% monthly as wages lag
A monthly price rise near 1.9 percent means food, rent and basic services cost more every month for ordinary families. Many wages, including the minimum near 391,200 pesos, rise more slowly than prices, so real buying power keeps falling. Savings held in pesos lose value over time, while the peso stays relatively steady against the dollar in the short term but markets expect it to weaken later in the year.
Businesses face higher costs for supplies and inputs that they may not fully pass on to customers. Small online sellers see shoppers more careful with spending, which can slow sales if price increases feel too sharp.
Ordinary families should track food and essential spending weekly and cut non-needed purchases. Savers should shift part of their money into dollars or short-term deposits that aim to keep pace with prices. Small online sellers should raise prices only modestly, focus on popular items and watch competitors closely.
Model: Grok 4.7 · mode: Expert · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: Banco Nación official dollar selling price exceeds 1,550 pesos — 62% by Oct 30, 2026
8GeminiUSA5.7Prices keep rising slowly, demanding careful spending and smart saving strategies.
For a regular family, the expected 1.9 percent monthly bump means everyday groceries will continue to squeeze tight budgets. While the huge price jumps of last year have faded, wages are still struggling to keep up with basic living costs.
Local businesses face a mixed reality where calmer price changes make it easier to plan their monthly spending. However, since shoppers are spending less, any company that raises prices too fast risks losing its customers completely.
Families should stick to strict budgets and hunt for bulk grocery discounts to stretch their income. Savers should use accounts that beat inflation instead of holding street dollars, which currently trade around 1,540 pesos. Small online sellers must keep their product prices as steady as possible to keep sales flowing.
Model: Gemini 3 (Auto) · mode: High · search on · new chat likely
Sources
1. infobae.com
2. clarin.com
own forecast: The official INDEC report shows the food and non-alcoholic beverages category rising by more than 2.0% in October 2026. — 65% by Nov 12, 2026
9QwenChina5.5Rising food prices push Argentina inflation up, squeezing family budgets further.
Food costs are driving prices higher, making daily groceries more expensive for everyone⁵. Wages rarely match these monthly jumps, so regular families must spend a larger share of their income just to eat.
Small online sellers must raise prices constantly to avoid losing money on restocking inventory. This constant price changing confuses buyers and slows down sales as customers wait for better deals.
Families should buy non-perishable goods now before prices jump again next month¹. Savers and sellers should convert extra pesos into stable dollars to protect their hard-earned money from losing value.
Model: Qwen3.8-Max · mode: Thinking · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: INDEC reports that Argentine food and beverage prices rose more than two percent in October. — 65% by Nov 12, 2026
10NovaUSA5.2Rising prices squeeze families, push pesos down
For families, a 1.9% price rise means food and transport cost more each month. Wages may not keep up, so everyday life gets tighter. Savings lose value fast as inflation eats them away.
For small online sellers, higher costs for goods and shipping can squeeze profits. They may need to raise prices, but that can shrink sales if customers spend less. Keeping costs low and finding cheaper suppliers becomes key.
Now, families should cut spending on non-essentials and look for cheaper alternatives. Savers should move money out of pesos into safer assets like USD or bonds. Small sellers should lock in prices early, negotiate better rates with suppliers, and focus on selling more to offset higher costs.
Model: Amazon Nova · mode: High · search on · new chat not disclosed
Sources
own forecast: Argentina's peso will weaken to 1,600 per USD by October 30, 2026 — 65% by Oct 30, 2026

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Which AI guesses right more often

Accuracy 0–100: how close the chance was to what happened. 100 — exact, 50 — a coin toss, 0 — the opposite. few data: 0 of 30 results

The first results come a day after the first questions.

Came true or not: what 12 AIs promised for 2026 →

How it works

The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.

10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 9 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. 16 were asked, 12 answered — each side shows its 5 strongest.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known, and we send its fingerprint at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us. No one can quietly change a question afterwards.

Came true or not: what 12 AIs promised for 2026 →

Mistral, DeepSeek, Gemini, Meta AI, ChatGPT, Nova, Kimi, Qwen and Z.ai read the answers without knowing who wrote them.

Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by the public leaderboard of their labs — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, non-obviousness, usefulness and clarity; the score is the mean of the judges.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own answer too: it never sees the names.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.

Judge by judge: Mistral — China ahead by 0.5; DeepSeek (China) — a tie (China +0.3); Gemini (USA) — China ahead by 0.5; Meta AI (USA) — China ahead by 0.3; ChatGPT (USA) — USA ahead by 0.5; Nova (USA) — a tie (China +0.0); Kimi (China) — China ahead by 0.4; Qwen (China) — a tie (China +0.0); Z.ai (China) — China ahead by 1.0.

Who scored highest

#	AI	Side	Mistral	DeepSeek	Gemini	Meta AI	ChatGPT	Nova	Kimi	Qwen	Z.ai	Score
1	ChatGPT	USA	8.0	8.5	8.8	8.5	8.8	9.3	9.0	9.5	7.8	8.7
2	Kimi	China	8.3	8.5	7.8	7.3	7.8	8.5	8.5	8.5	7.5	8.1
=3	Meta AI	USA	7.8	8.5	8.0	7.5	7.0	8.3	8.0	8.3	6.8	7.8
=3	Z.ai	China	7.5	7.5	8.3	8.0	7.3	8.5	7.8	7.8	7.5	7.8
5	DeepSeek	China	7.3	7.5	7.8	6.5	6.0	8.5	7.3	7.8	6.8	7.3
6	MiMo	China	6.5	7.0	6.8	6.3	7.0	8.0	7.0	7.3	6.3	6.9
7	Grok	USA	6.5	6.3	6.3	6.0	7.3	7.8	6.3	7.8	5.8	6.6
8	Gemini	USA	5.5	6.5	5.5	4.8	—	7.3	5.3	6.0	5.0	5.7
9	Qwen	China	5.0	6.3	5.0	4.5	4.8	7.0	5.0	6.3	—	5.5
10	Nova	USA	4.5	5.5	4.5	4.0	5.3	7.8	5.0	5.8	4.8	5.2

Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their mean. Equal scores share a place.

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its own app, in its best single mode on a regular plan (about $20–30 a month) or free, with web search on, in a new chat, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

AI	Model	Mode	Plan	How sure
Gemini	Gemini 3 (Auto)	High	Google AI Pro	likely
Meta AI	Muse Spark 1.3	Thinking	free	likely
ChatGPT	GPT-6	Extra high	Pro	exact
Grok	Grok 4.7	Expert	SuperGrok	likely
Nova	Amazon Nova	High	free	not disclosed
Kimi	Kimi K3	High	membership	exact
Qwen	Qwen3.8-Max	Thinking	free	exact
MiMo	MiMo-V2.6-Pro		free	likely
Z.ai	GLM-5.3	Deep Think Max	free	exact
DeepSeek	DeepSeek V4.1 Flash	DeepThink	free	likely
Mistral judge	Mistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5	Think	free	not disclosed

Exact: the app showed the model for this answer. Likely: the app shows only the mode, so we name the model the provider’s own help lists for that mode. Not disclosed: the app does not say which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 12, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will Argentina's national statistics office (INDEC) report, in its release due on November 12, 2026, that consumer prices rose 1.9% or less in October 2026 compared with September 2026?

The result comes on Nov 12, 2026, 30 days after this issue. Check it on the official INDEC website (https://www.indec.gob.ar) or in its consumer price report. Only the official monthly national figure counts. City or private estimates, forecasts and leaks do not count. If the official figure is not published by the end of November 12, 2026, the answer is no. Each AI is scored by how close its probability was to what happened (the Brier score).

Poly USA-5 · 65%
ChatGPT72%
Grok72%
Meta AI62%
Nova60%
Gemini40%
Poly China-5 · 48%
Kimi55%
DeepSeek55%
Qwen45%
MiMo45%
Z.ai42%

the line: Poly World-10 · 54%

Poly Index

Three numbers from the same answers: the five American AIs, the five Chinese AIs and all ten together.

Poly USA-565%Gemini, Meta AI, ChatGPT, Grok, Novaall 5 answered
Poly China-548%Kimi, Qwen, MiMo, Z.ai, DeepSeekall 5 answered
Poly World-1054%Gemini, Meta AI, ChatGPT, Grok, Nova, Kimi, Qwen, MiMo, Z.ai, DeepSeekall 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and take the average of the rest. The AIs answered before they saw any market.

Each AI's own forecast (10)

AI	Forecast	By	Chance
Gemini	The official INDEC report shows the food and non-alcoholic beverages category rising by more than 2.0% in October 2026.	Nov 12, 2026	65%
Meta AI	City of Buenos Aires (IPCBA) reports October 2026 monthly inflation at 1.7% or less	Nov 10, 2026	55%
ChatGPT	By November 12, 2026, the Argentine central bank's October Market Expectations Survey will show a median forecast of at least 1,625 pesos per US dollar for the average official exchange rate in December 2026.	Nov 12, 2026	48%
Grok	Banco Nación official dollar selling price exceeds 1,550 pesos	Oct 30, 2026	62%
Nova	Argentina's peso will weaken to 1,600 per USD by October 30, 2026	Oct 30, 2026	65%
Kimi	In INDEC's November 12, 2026 release, the food and non-alcoholic beverages category will show a monthly rise above the general consumer price index for October 2026.	Nov 12, 2026	62%
Qwen	INDEC reports that Argentine food and beverage prices rose more than two percent in October.	Nov 12, 2026	65%
MiMo	INDEC's November 2026 monthly consumer price rise, published in December 2026, will come in below 1.8%.	Dec 10, 2026	55%
Z.ai	On DolarHoy, the dólar blue's selling price stays below 1,700 pesos on every trading day in November 2026.	Nov 30, 2026	62%
DeepSeek	INDEC will report October 2026 monthly inflation at 1.8% or lower	Nov 12, 2026	55%

Each own forecast is checked on its own date.

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