Oct 13, 2026New trend every hour

Trend of the day · eventevent · Oct 13, 2026

A late kick block and a costly mistake decide a wild overtime football game

The Rams beat Buffalo on yards and time on the ball, then lost on their cheapest player and a cautious call.

USA6.9:China6.7

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They agree: 7 of 10: the Rams' season can still be saved once kicking is fixed.
They split: Kimi calls the Rams' season on life support; Claude expects three quick wins.
Not obvious: The winner has the deeper flaw: Buffalo's pass defense ranks 30th of 32.
What to do: Judge the Rams by their next four games, starting with Arizona.
What to watch: If Blake Grupe makes his kicks against Arizona, the Rams' recovery holds.
Only one AI: Only Qwen: a Rams lineman's punch after the game cost a two-game ban.

Read in full

Nearly all ten agree that special teams (the kicking and punting unit), not Matthew Stafford or Josh Allen, decided this game. Harrison Mevis missed from 50 yards, and his 48-yard overtime try was blocked.

Claude, ChatGPT, Kimi and Grok add that Sean McVay made it worse: he ran the ball on third down and leaned on a kicker who had already missed, when he could have trusted Stafford, who threw for 383 yards. Kimi backs this with a number: the Rams rank last in the league on special teams.

They split on what it means for the season. Kimi says the Rams, 2-3 and 3.5 games behind San Francisco, stay on life support until the kicking is fixed. Claude, ChatGPT and Z.ai say don't panic. Kicking mistakes are among the easiest to fix, Blake Grupe has already replaced Mevis, and Arizona, Las Vegas, the winless Chargers and Washington come next. Claude expects at least three wins there.

Comparing the answers shows that Buffalo, the winner, may have the harder problem. MiMo, Claude and ChatGPT point to a pass defense ranked 30th that let Stafford pass at will, rookie Maxwell Hairston being targeted again and again, and James Cook's two fumbles.

Claude and ChatGPT both checked the calendar: with a bye week, Buffalo can have at most six wins by November 8. Qwen alone adds that a Rams lineman's punch after the game earned a two-game suspension. That matters for the coming weeks, but it did not decide this game.

What you can do: judge the Rams by the next month, not by 2-3. Watch whether Grupe makes his kicks. For Buffalo, MiMo's test is simple: two clean games in a row from the secondary (the players who defend against passes), and whether Hairston keeps his starting job, before you call the Bills a title favorite.

They split: Kimi calls the Rams' season on life support; Claude expects three quick wins.
What settles the dispute: The Rams' record after their next four games will show who is right.

No clear split: AIs from both sides blame the Rams' kicking and coach, not the quarterbacks.

What is confirmed and what is not

Confirmed by a source The Rams cut kicker Harrison Mevis, 5 of 9 on field goals, and signed Blake Grupe
Confirmed by a source The Rams rank last in the league in points added by special teams
The AIs' conclusion With the kicking fixed, the Rams' easy next stretch can rescue their season

The AIs read 64 sources

I wish I would've had a better play call and gone for it, gotten it a lot tighter
— Sean McVay, head coach of the Los Angeles Rams · cbssports.com

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I'm a Rams fan. Given their next four opponents and their new kicker, how many wins should I expect before November?

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Who wins, who loses: Kicker Harrison Mevis lost his job; Blake Grupe and Bills fans gain.

The final answer, by Claude Opus

All 10 answers ↓▶ Watch how it came together

What really decided this game? What should the Rams and the Bills take from it, and what does it say about how their seasons will go (source)?

What the world's 10 leading AIs think

1ClaudeUSA8.4Rams never turned the ball over, but two failed kicks sank them
Kicking, not the quarterbacks, decided it: the Rams never turned the ball over, kept it almost 38 minutes and outgained Buffalo 454-436, yet their kicker went 0-for-2 on field goals in a three-point loss (espn.com, espn.com).
Sean McVay also admitted his cautious third-down call set up a long overtime kick, while Josh Allen's 121 rushing yards carried Buffalo into range for its 45-yard winner (yardbarker.com, nbcsports.com).
For fans, Buffalo's weak spot is still pass defense: Matthew Stafford threw for 383 yards against a group that came in 30th in passing yards allowed (espn.com, sports.yahoo.com).
In business terms, the Rams show how one small job can sink a star roster: they started as Super Bowl favorites, with the title game at their own stadium, after an offseason spent rebuilding special teams (si.com, amp.foxsports.com, bozemandailychronicle.com).
Less than a day after the loss they cut Harrison Mevis, who had made 5 of 9 field goals, and signed Blake Grupe, an 81.9% career kicker, off the Jets' practice squad (sports.yahoo.com, cbssports.com).
Bettors still believe in both teams: this week the Rams are 13.5-point favorites over Arizona and the Bills 6-point favorites at Las Vegas (foxsports.com).
What to do now: judge the Rams by their play, not their 2-3 record, because next come Arizona, Las Vegas, the winless Chargers and Washington, and I expect at least three wins there (therams.com, nfl.com).
For Buffalo, watch the pass defense and the calendar: a Week 7 bye and a Monday game at Minnesota on Nov. 9 cap the Bills at six wins after Sunday, Nov. 8 (fingerlakes1.com). Even counting that Monday, a seventh win needs three straight: at Las Vegas, against Baltimore and at unbeaten Minnesota (legionreport.com, nfl.com).
Model: Claude Opus 5.5 · mode: Max · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: The Los Angeles Rams win at least 3 of their next 4 games (vs Arizona Oct 18, at Las Vegas Oct 25, vs the Chargers Nov 1, at Washington Nov 8), per NFL.com final scores — 66% by Nov 9, 2026
2KimiChina8.1Rams' broken kicking unit, not Josh Allen, decided this overtime classic
The game was decided by the one unit the Rams failed to fix: special teams. Buffalo's Greg Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis' 48-yard overtime attempt, Mevis also missed from 50, and the Rams allowed a 70-yard opening kickoff return (sports.yahoo.com).
Sean McVay made it worse by settling for that kick on third-and-5 instead of trusting Matthew Stafford, who had thrown for 383 yards and was carving up Buffalo late; McVay admitted afterward, 'I'm sick right now with myself' (sports.yahoo.com). For an ordinary fan, the takeaway is simple: both offenses are elite, but one team keeps handing away wins.
For the business side, the Bills look like a real contender at 4-1, leading the AFC East, with Josh Allen finally winning his first career overtime game after an 0-7 start in OT (sports.yahoo.com).
The Rams are 2-3, already 3.5 games behind the 49ers, and rank 32nd in the NFL in special teams expected points added despite hiring a new coordinator and new specialists this offseason (cbssports.com). Penalties are also compounding: 11 for 84 yards against Buffalo, part of a pattern of 10-plus-penalty games (si.com). A team built for a Super Bowl run is leaking value through its cheapest positions.
What now? The Rams should change kickers or at least the protection scheme before Sunday's game against Arizona, because McVay says he will 'evaluate everything' and this is at least the fourth loss in two years tied directly to special teams (si.com).
The Bills should fix James Cook's fumbling but otherwise ride this: their next two games are at the Raiders and home to Baltimore (buffalobills.com), and a 6-1 start is firmly on the table. Expect Buffalo to keep rolling toward a top AFC seed, and expect the Rams' season to stay on life support until the kicking game is fixed.
Model: Kimi K3 · mode: High · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: The Los Angeles Rams will replace Harrison Mevis as their starting kicker (new signing, trade, or practice-squad promotion starting a game) by November 12, 2026 — 35% by Nov 12, 2026
3ChatGPTUSA7.9McVay's conservative call made the Rams' kicking weakness decisive
The decisive mistake was not simply a blocked kick: after Matthew Stafford led three straight touchdown drives, Sean McVay chose to run on third-and-five and settled for a 48-yard attempt by a kicker who had already missed from 50 yards (nfl.com).
Buffalo's Greg Rousseau blocked it, and Josh Allen used his running ability to set up the winning kick (nfl.com). The wider lesson is simple: choosing what looks safe can be the riskiest decision when it depends on your weakest link.
For the people running these teams, this is a lesson in managing risk and fixing weak systems rather than relying entirely on talented individuals.
Los Angeles is already moving to replace Harrison Mevis with Blake Grupe, but it also needs better kick protection and run defense; Buffalo must improve its pass coverage and ball security after allowing Stafford 383 passing yards and seeing James Cook fumble twice (amp.nfl.com; nfl.com).
The Rams' 2–3 start is concerning but recoverable, with Arizona, Las Vegas, the Chargers and Washington next; their offense looks capable of winning games if special teams stops wasting opportunities (nfl.com). Buffalo's 4–1 start suggests genuine championship potential, but the defensive communication problems identified before this game remain a warning sign, especially with Baltimore visiting November 1 (sports.yahoo.com; nfl.com).
Watch whether those weaknesses improve rather than judging either season from one result, and note that Buffalo cannot reach seven wins by November 8 because only two more games are scheduled before then, making six the maximum (nfl.com).
Model: GPT-6 · mode: Extra high · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: The Los Angeles Rams win at least three of their four regular-season games scheduled from October 18 through November 8, 2026. — 62% by Nov 8, 2026
4Meta AIUSA7.3Special teams, not stars, decided Bills-Rams overtime thriller
For fans, this was a kicking game inside a shootout. Both offenses moved, but a blocked 48-yard field goal in overtime flipped it, and Buffalo turned it into a 45-yard winner from Tyler Bass.
For the teams as businesses, reliability beat flash. The Rams got 383 yards and three scores from Matthew Stafford and a 17-catch night from Puka Nacua, yet fell to 2-3 because the kicking unit collapsed. The Bills moved to 4-1 despite allowing 454 yards and two James Cook fumbles in overtime, showing a flawed product can still win when the other side's special teams fails.
What to do now is clear. Sean McVay said the kicking game was not even close to good enough and it cost us the game, and that Los Angeles will evaluate everything. Buffalo should fix ball security before its trip to Las Vegas on Oct 18, because good teams will not gift another blocked kick.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 · mode: Thinking · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: Buffalo Bills will be 5-1 after beating Las Vegas Raiders on October 18, 2026 — 62% by Oct 19, 2026
5MiMoChina6.7Buffalo won on a blocked kick, but its pass defense still decides the season.
For a normal fan: the real decider was the Rams' special teams, not Buffalo's brilliance. A blocked field goal flipped the game, and the same Bills secondary that ranks 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed nearly gave it away again, with rookie Maxwell Hairston repeatedly targeted (sports.yahoo.com).
That fits what ex-coach Sean McDermott said days earlier: the talent is there — Josh Allen, Greg Rousseau, Deone Walker — but the back seven and the front are not talking to each other yet (sports.yahoo.com).
For business: Buffalo keeps winning close games, which is good for ratings and ticket demand, but the margin is thin. Los Angeles must fix its kicking and punting units fast; in a division race, three special-teams blunders cost more than any single player.
The Bills' bet is that a first-year coordinator in Jim Leonhard and a first-year head coach in Joe Brady will steady a defence that has known only one voice for nine years (sports.yahoo.com).
What to do now: if you back Buffalo, keep expectations modest until the secondary shows two clean games in a row; Rousseau and Walker are the pillars, the coverage is the risk. If you back the Rams, look at the kicking game first — a team that loses on blocked kicks is losing on detail, not talent. Watch whether Hairston keeps his starting job; that is the clearest sign the coaching staff is fixing the problem.
Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro · search on · new chat likely
Sources
1. sports.yahoo.com
own forecast: The Buffalo Bills will allow 300 or more passing yards in at least two of their games from Week 6 through Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season, per Pro Football Reference game logs. — 55% by Nov 10, 2026

6Z.aiChina6.6A blocked kick decided a shootout: Bills clutch, Rams flawed.
Special teams decided this game, and that is the honest answer even after 71 points. Both offenses moved the ball almost at will — 37 and 34 points — so the margin came from the third unit: the blocked field goal handed Buffalo a lifeline it seized. For an ordinary fan the lesson is that NFL games between good teams are usually decided by kicks, punts and snaps, not quarterback heroics.
For the Bills, this is what a contender's season looks like: 4–1, winning tight games on the road when the plan isn't perfect. Josh Allen's teams have made a habit of winning these coin-flip games, and banking them now is how a division title and a home playoff game get secured.
For the Rams, 34 points should win most weeks; the worry is that Sean McVay's teams have usually been clean on details, and losing on special teams mistakes is a discipline problem that spreads if it isn't fixed fast.
What to do now: Bills fans should enjoy the record but keep an eye on the kicking game that nearly lost it — playoff games punish exactly that.
Rams fans shouldn't panic: special-teams errors are among the most correctable in football, and a coach like McVay tends to spend the next two weeks on nothing else. The season-defining signposts are simple — watch whether Buffalo keeps winning one-score games, and whether Los Angeles stops beating itself.
Model: GLM-5.3 · mode: Deep Think Max · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: The Buffalo Bills hold sole possession of first place in the AFC East in the official NFL standings (nfl.com/standings) after all games played through Sunday, November 8, 2026, checked on 2026-11-12. — 55% by Nov 12, 2026
7DeepSeekChina6.3Special teams cost Rams, but both teams have deeper issues.
For an ordinary fan, this game showed that one or two plays on special teams can decide a close NFL game. The Rams lost because they missed a field goal and had another blocked, while the Bills took advantage. That means the Rams' season could slip away if they don't fix their kicking game quickly.
For a business, this game is a reminder that small operational failures can destroy an otherwise strong product. The Rams have a star quarterback and a good offense, but their special teams are a weak link that costs them wins. The Bills, meanwhile, keep winning close games but have not looked dominant, which matters for sponsors and playoff seeding.
The Rams should hire a new special teams coordinator or change their kicker before their next game. The Bills should use their bye week to fix their own inconsistencies. Both teams should treat this as a warning: close wins and bad losses add up over a long season.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash · mode: DeepThink · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: The Los Angeles Rams will have a winning record (above.500) after games played through Sunday, November 8, 2026. — 55% by Nov 8, 2026
8GrokUSA6.1Rams kicking mistakes and caution cost them overtime win
For ordinary fans this shows close games often hinge on small details rather than star quarterbacks alone.
The Rams lost because their kicker missed early and had a potential game-winner blocked while the coach chose a safe run instead of pushing for more yards.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="1" /> Bills got a second chance and used running plays to set up the winning kick so the full team effort mattered more than one side dominating.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="5" />
For the business side this loss and long-running special teams issues can cut into playoff revenue and home-game value for the Rams who already sat at two wins and three losses.
They quickly released the kicker and signed a replacement which signals action to protect fan interest and ticket sales going forward.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="80" /> The Bills at four wins and one loss look more like contenders which can lift merchandise and local engagement even if their defense still gives up big yards.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="70" />
Teams should focus on the basics that decide tight contests. The Rams need the new kicker and better protection to stop wasting strong offensive nights. The Bills should tighten coverage and reduce penalties so their offense does not have to rescue them every week. Watch the next few games to see if the fixes hold.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="15" />
Model: Grok 4.7 · mode: Expert · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: The Los Angeles Rams will record at least two wins in their next four games after October 13 2026 — 55% by Nov 9, 2026
9QwenChina5.7Special teams errors and a suspension sink Rams as Bills prove elite.
The game was truly decided by terrible special teams plays and a foolish post-game fight that will cost Los Angeles a key player¹. Ordinary fans see that a single blocked kick or a loss of temper can completely change a team's fortune and ruin their year².
For the Rams, bad special teams play is a costly failure that forces them to cut their kicker and lose a starting lineman to suspension³. The Bills show that paying stars to perform under pressure pays off, boosting their brand as they reach a strong 4-1 record⁴.
Los Angeles must immediately fix their kicking unit and control their players to stop a bad 2-3 start from turning into a total disaster⁵. Buffalo should stay the course, trusting their core to win close games and keep building momentum toward a deep playoff run⁶.
Model: Qwen3.8-Max · mode: Thinking · search on · new chat exact
Sources
own forecast: The Los Angeles Rams sign a new starting kicker before their next game. — 85% by Oct 19, 2026
10GeminiUSA5.0Josh Allen's legs and a blocked kick decided a wild overtime thriller.
For ordinary fans, chaotic high-scoring games provide thrilling entertainment but highlight how thin the margin is between winning and losing in competitive sports. When a single special teams breakdown or turnover alters the outcome, it reminds viewers that consistency across every single play matters immensely.
For business leaders, this matchup underscores that operational execution under pressure is just as important as high-level strategy. Talent and planning get you to the crunch, but small details and flawless execution determine who wins when stakes are highest.
Teams and organizations must focus heavily on fundamentals and resilience rather than relying solely on star power. Identifying small vulnerabilities now prevents costly failures when critical moments arrive.
Model: Gemini 3 (Auto) · mode: High · search on · new chat likely
Sources
own forecast: The Buffalo Bills will score more than 25 points against the Las Vegas Raiders on October 18, 2026 — 65% by Oct 18, 2026

Previous trends

Which AI guesses right more often

Accuracy 0–100: how close the chance was to what happened. 100 — exact, 50 — a coin toss, 0 — the opposite. few data: 0 of 30 results

The first results come a day after the first questions.

Came true or not: what 12 AIs promised for 2026 →

How it works

The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.

10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 7 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. 16 were asked, 13 answered — each side shows its 5 strongest.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known, and we send its fingerprint at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us. No one can quietly change a question afterwards.

Came true or not: what 12 AIs promised for 2026 →

Mistral, DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini and Z.ai read the answers without knowing who wrote them.

Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by the public leaderboard of their labs — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, non-obviousness, usefulness and clarity; the score is the mean of the judges.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own answer too: it never sees the names.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.

Judge by judge: Mistral — a tie (China +0.2); DeepSeek (China) — a tie (USA +0.3); ChatGPT (USA) — USA ahead by 0.3; Meta AI (USA) — USA ahead by 0.3; Grok (USA) — a tie (China +0.2); Gemini (USA) — USA ahead by 0.4; Z.ai (China) — USA ahead by 0.9.

Who scored highest

#	AI	Side	Mistral	DeepSeek	ChatGPT	Meta AI	Grok	Gemini	Z.ai	Score
1	Claude	USA	8.3	8.8	8.0	8.3	8.3	9.5	7.8	8.4
2	Kimi	China	7.8	8.8	7.3	8.3	8.0	8.8	7.8	8.1
3	ChatGPT	USA	7.5	8.3	8.8	8.5	8.5	8.8	4.8	7.9
4	Meta AI	USA	7.0	7.8	6.8	7.0	7.3	7.5	7.8	7.3
5	MiMo	China	7.3	8.3	7.3	7.5	8.3	7.0	1.3	6.7
6	Z.ai	China	6.5	5.8	6.3	6.5	8.0	7.3	5.8	6.6
7	DeepSeek	China	6.3	5.3	5.8	4.8	6.5	7.0	8.3	6.3
8	Grok	USA	5.8	5.8	5.0	6.5	6.8	6.3	6.8	6.1
9	Qwen	China	6.8	5.5	5.5	5.0	6.5	5.3	5.5	5.7
10	Gemini	USA	4.8	4.5	5.3	3.5	5.5	5.3	6.0	5.0

Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their mean. Equal scores share a place.

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its own app, in its best single mode on a regular plan (about $20–30 a month) or free, with web search on, in a new chat, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

AI	Model	Mode	Plan	How sure
Claude	Claude Opus 5.5	Max	Max	exact
ChatGPT	GPT-6	Extra high	Pro	exact
Meta AI	Muse Spark 1.3	Thinking	free	likely
Grok	Grok 4.7	Expert	SuperGrok	likely
Gemini	Gemini 3 (Auto)	High	Google AI Pro	likely
MiMo	MiMo-V2.6-Pro		free	likely
Qwen	Qwen3.8-Max	Thinking	free	exact
Z.ai	GLM-5.3	Deep Think Max	free	likely
Kimi	Kimi K3	High	membership	exact
DeepSeek	DeepSeek V4.1 Flash	DeepThink	free	likely
Mistral judge	Mistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5	Think	free	not disclosed

Exact: the app showed the model for this answer. Likely: the app shows only the mode, so we name the model the provider’s own help lists for that mode. Not disclosed: the app does not say which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 12, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will the Buffalo Bills have at least 7 wins in the official NFL standings on nfl.com after the games played through Sunday, November 8, 2026, as checked on November 12, 2026?

The result comes on Nov 12, 2026, 30 days after this issue. Each AI is scored by how close its probability was to what happened (the Brier score).

Poly USA-5 · 4%
Gemini85%
Claude9%
Meta AI2%
ChatGPT0%
Grok0%
Poly China-5 · 43%
MiMo80%
Qwen65%
Z.ai65%
Kimi0%
DeepSeek0%

the line: Poly World-10 · 28%

Poly Index

Three numbers from the same answers: the five American AIs, the five Chinese AIs and all ten together.

Poly USA-54%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Geminiall 5 answered
Poly China-543%MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 5 answered
Poly World-1028%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and take the average of the rest. The AIs answered before they saw any market.

Each AI's own forecast (10)

AI	Forecast	By	Chance
Claude	The Los Angeles Rams win at least 3 of their next 4 games (vs Arizona Oct 18, at Las Vegas Oct 25, vs the Chargers Nov 1, at Washington Nov 8), per NFL.com final scores	Nov 9, 2026	66%
ChatGPT	The Los Angeles Rams win at least three of their four regular-season games scheduled from October 18 through November 8, 2026.	Nov 8, 2026	62%
Meta AI	Buffalo Bills will be 5-1 after beating Las Vegas Raiders on October 18, 2026	Oct 19, 2026	62%
Grok	The Los Angeles Rams will record at least two wins in their next four games after October 13 2026	Nov 9, 2026	55%
Gemini	The Buffalo Bills will score more than 25 points against the Las Vegas Raiders on October 18, 2026	Oct 18, 2026	65%
MiMo	The Buffalo Bills will allow 300 or more passing yards in at least two of their games from Week 6 through Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season, per Pro Football Reference game logs.	Nov 10, 2026	55%
Qwen	The Los Angeles Rams sign a new starting kicker before their next game.	Oct 19, 2026	85%
Z.ai	The Buffalo Bills hold sole possession of first place in the AFC East in the official NFL standings (nfl.com/standings) after all games played through Sunday, November 8, 2026, checked on 2026-11-12.	Nov 12, 2026	55%
Kimi	The Los Angeles Rams will replace Harrison Mevis as their starting kicker (new signing, trade, or practice-squad promotion starting a game) by November 12, 2026	Nov 12, 2026	35%
DeepSeek	The Los Angeles Rams will have a winning record (above.500) after games played through Sunday, November 8, 2026.	Nov 8, 2026	55%

Each own forecast is checked on its own date.

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