Oct 14, 2026New trend every hour

Trend of the day · Economy & businessEconomy & business · Oct 14, 2026

America's second-biggest bank must pay $1.2 billion for missing suspicious payments

Your money at Bank of America is safe; the real cost is more questions when you move big sums.

Forecast before the AIs

Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.

Will Bank of America's share price be higher on Friday than Thursday?

Now: $53.96

We’ll know the answer

This question’s own page →

Whose forecasts come true more often →

They agree
9 of 10: the bank's October 14 profit report matters more than the fine.
They split
Z.ai sees a passing bruise; Gemini and Grok see lasting cleanup costs.
Not obvious
The bill is paid, but the review of old payments may still find more.
What to do
Keep receipts ready for big cash deposits and money sent abroad.
What to watch
If your bank asks more about large transfers by November, the conclusion holds.
Read in full

All ten AIs agree that customers need do nothing. The government insures deposits up to $250,000 per person, per bank, per type of account. The bank pays the fine from its own profit, about two weeks of earnings. Nine of ten add a practical cost: more questions and slower approvals on large cash deposits, money orders and money sent abroad, as the bank and its rivals tighten their checks.

For shareholders, the AIs agree it is a one-time hit of about 17 cents a share. They also agree the bank's October 14 quarterly report will move the stock more than the fine. They split on what comes after. Z.ai and MiMo call it a bruise and point to past cases: BNP Paribas and HSBC paid and moved on.

Gemini, Grok and ChatGPT stress the slower cost of hiring reviewers and fixing systems. Claude and ChatGPT warn that the required outside review of old payments may turn up more cases, so further penalties are possible but not certain. Claude notes there was no criminal charge and no cap on the bank's growth, unlike the TD Bank case.

For other banks, the shared reading is that Washington still punishes weak checks for dirty money. Claude and ChatGPT point to the $350 million fine on American Express five days earlier. So the extra questions may come from your own bank too, not just this one.

What to do: keep banking as usual. Keep receipts and paperwork ready for big transfers. Claude adds a warning: treat any call or text claiming the fine affects your account as a scam, and call the number on your statement instead. If you own the stock, the AIs advise against selling in panic and against holding all your savings in one bank's shares.

They split: Z.ai sees a passing bruise; Gemini and Grok see lasting cleanup costs.
What settles the dispute: The bank's January results, with cleanup costs, will show who is right.

No real split: AIs from both countries agree; the US ones cited more official papers.Only the AIs from one country noticed: AIs from the USA — American Express was fined $350 million for similar failures five days earlier.

What is confirmed and what is not

  • Confirmed by a source  The bank failed to report over $5 billion in suspicious payments on time
  • Confirmed by a source  An outside firm must go back over old payments and report what was missed
  • The AIs' conclusion Customers' deposits are not at risk; the bank pays from its own profit

The AIs read 56 sources

Ask any AI yourself

I bank with Bank of America and send money abroad monthly. What papers should I keep ready for extra checks?

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Who wins, who loses: Firms that check payments win work; people sending money abroad face delays.

All 10 answers ↓▶ Watch how it came together
Your money at Bank of America is safe; the real cost is more questions when you move big sums.

On October 13, 2026, the United States Treasury Department ordered Bank of America to pay about $1.2 billion. The Treasury said the bank had failed to report more than $5 billion in suspicious payments.

The American news network NBC News reported it (source).

What does this mean for the bank's customers, for people who own its shares and for other banks? What is likely to happen next? What, if anything, should ordinary people do?

What the world's 10 leading AIs think

  1. 1ClaudeUSA8.4Fine costs Bank of America two weeks' profit; your deposits stay safe

    For customers this is a black eye for the bank, not a danger: deposits stay insured up to $250,000 per person, per bank, per ownership type (fdic.gov).

    The bank pays the Treasury out of its own profit, roughly two weeks of the $32 billion it earned over the past year, and must hire an outside firm to comb through old payments (nbcnews.com, stockanalysis.com, fincrime.news.blog).

    Expect more questions, and some delays, on big cash deposits, money orders, foreign wires and payments from strangers: when the bank tightened its alarms in late 2023, it planned for 16,000 extra cases a month, double the old load (fincen.gov).

    For shareholders the bill is small, a one-time hit of about 17 cents a share, with no cap on the bank's growth and no Justice Department charge, unlike the TD Bank and Binance cases (cnbc.com, finance.yahoo.com, cnn.com).

    Still, the shares slipped to about $52.73 after the market closed, on top of a slide from about $65 in August on flat trading income, fear of AI rivals and rising interest rates (stockanalysis.com, stockanalysis.com, itiger.com, cryptobriefing.com).

    For other banks the lesson is that Washington still punishes weak dirty-money controls, with the national bank regulator's biggest penalty ever and $350 million from American Express five days earlier, so expect more spending on checks and closer looks at business customers that take money orders or payments from unknown buyers (occ.gov, sec.gov, fincen.gov).

    Customers need do nothing; treat any call or text saying the fine affects your account as a scam, never move money 'to protect it,' and call the number on your statement (consumer.ftc.gov).

    Shareholders should judge the stock on today's results, due about 6:45 a.m. Eastern with analysts expecting about $1.11 a share before the fine, and on the 8:30 a.m. inflation report, not on the fine itself (newsroom.bankofamerica.com, news.alphastreet.com, admiralmarkets.com).

    After that, the Federal Reserve's October 28 rate decision will likely move bank shares more than this fine, while the outside review mainly sends more reports on old suspicious payments to investigators (admiralmarkets.com, fincrime.news.blog).

    Model: Claude Opus 5.5 · mode: Max · search on · new chat exact

    Fine costs Bank of America two weeks' profit; your deposits stay safe
    Sources
    1. fdic.gov
    2. nbcnews.com
    3. stockanalysis.com
    4. stockanalysis.com
    5. stockanalysis.com
    6. fincrime.news.blog
    7. fincen.gov
    8. fincen.gov
    9. occ.gov
    10. cnbc.com
    11. finance.yahoo.com
    12. cnn.com

    own forecast: Bank of America (BAC) does worse than JPMorgan Chase (JPM) from the Oct 13 to the Nov 13, 2026 close: BAC's percentage change from $53.96 is lower than JPM's from $331.43, per official closing prices on Yahoo Finance. — 60% by Nov 13, 2026

  2. 2ChatGPTUSA8.1Customers need not panic; shareholders face a costly cleanup

    For ordinary customers, there is no reason to rush to withdraw money: regulators identified failures in monitoring payments, not a bank shutdown or missing customer deposits (home.treasury.gov).

    Federal insurance still protects eligible deposits up to $250,000 per depositor, per insured bank, per ownership category (fdic.gov). Importantly, suspicious transactions are not automatically proven money laundering (fincen.gov).

    Shareholders face the clearest immediate cost: the bank expects the penalty to reduce quarterly profit by about 17 cents per share, and its stock fell more than 2% after regular trading ended Tuesday (investing.com).

    The additional $750 million regulatory assessment is included in the $1.2 billion, not added to it; independent reviewers must now examine past payments and the bank's safeguards, potentially increasing future expenses (occ.gov; home.treasury.gov).

    Other banks are likely to strengthen their own checks, particularly after regulators also fined American Express $350 million for similar failures (investing.com).

    Ordinary people should continue banking normally, check their deposit insurance coverage, and monitor accounts for unexpected transactions (fdic.gov).

    Shareholders should examine the October 14 earnings report, especially management's explanation of future compliance costs and share buybacks, rather than assume the stock will immediately recover (newsroom.bankofamerica.com; investing.com).

    The next steps include independent reviews and reporting previously overlooked suspicious activity to regulators; additional penalties remain a risk, but are not inevitable (home.treasury.gov).

    Model: GPT-6 · mode: Extra high · search on · new chat exact

    Sources
    1. home.treasury.gov
    2. fincen.gov
    3. occ.gov
    4. fdic.gov
    5. investing.com
    6. newsroom.bankofamerica.com
    7. stockanalysis.com

    own forecast: During Bank of America's October 14, 2026 earnings conference call, at least one analyst will ask whether the penalty affects future share buyback plans. — 65% by Oct 14, 2026

  3. 3Z.aiChina7.4A $1.2 billion fine stings, not sinks: deposits safe, checks slower.

    For customers, the honest answer is: almost nothing happens to your money. The bank is being punished for not filing reports about other people's suspicious payments — no customer deposits were lost. Deposits up to $250,000 per person are insured by the government (fdic.gov).

    What you may notice is friction: more questions about unusual transfers, slower international payments and the occasional frozen account, because the bank will now over-check everything to avoid a second fine.

    For shareholders and other banks, the fine is big but survivable: it equals roughly two weeks of the bank's normal profit, and history says giant banks absorb such penalties and move on — BNP Paribas paid $8.9 billion in 2014 and HSBC $1.9 billion in 2012 without lasting damage (fincen.gov).

    The real message to the industry is that sloppy reporting of suspicious payments gets punished even at the biggest names, so expect every large bank to spend more on compliance staff and systems this year. Shareholders should watch Wednesday's quarterly results, which come a day after the fine, to see how the charge is booked and whether profits still grew (investor.bankofamerica.com).

    What should ordinary people do? Nothing urgent. Do not switch banks over a fine the bank can easily pay — judge it by how it treats your account, not by headlines. Keep simple records for any large transfer you make, so extra checks clear faster. Investors should resist panic-selling a one-day dip; the thing that would change the story is a second, bigger enforcement action, not this one.

    Model: GLM-5.3 · mode: Deep Think Max · search on · new chat likely

    Sources
    1. nbcnews.com
    2. fdic.gov
    3. fincen.gov
    4. fincen.gov
    5. investor.bankofamerica.com
    6. finance.yahoo.com
    7. consumerfinance.gov
    8. occ.gov

    own forecast: Bank of America's third-quarter 2026 earnings release (October 14, 2026) or its quarterly report filed with the SEC by 2026-11-13 discloses a legal charge or accrual covering the approximately $1.2 billion Treasury penalty. — 65% by Nov 13, 2026

  4. 4KimiChina7.4Customers are safe; owners pay the fine, earnings decide the stock

    If you are a customer, your money is not in danger. Deposits stay insured by the government up to $250,000, and the bank keeps running as usual; it earned about $9.1 billion last quarter, so it can easily pay this fine (kansascity.com, public.com).

    You may notice more paperwork and delays on large or foreign transfers, because the bank must now hire outside experts to re-check old payments and fix its monitoring systems (lawcommentary.com).

    For shareholders, this is painful but not deadly. The stock fell 1.1% on the day the fine was announced, to $53.96, and slipped about 3% more after hours (finance.yahoo.com, fool.com).

    Most analysts still rate the stock a buy, with average targets near $63 to $69 (chartmill.com, stockanalysis.com).

    What matters more now is the quarterly report on October 14: traders see roughly a 70% chance profits beat forecasts of about $1.11 to $1.19 per share (polymarket.com, tickeron.com). For other banks, the message is clear: expect to spend far more on anti-crime checks, because regulators just showed even the biggest names get punished.

    What should ordinary people do? Customers: nothing, your account is fine. Shareholders: do not panic-sell on a headline, but do not keep all your savings in one bank stock either.

    Watch the October 14 earnings call, where bosses must explain how much the cleanup will cost and whether profits still grow (newsroom.bankofamerica.com).

    Model: Kimi K3 · mode: High · search on · new chat exact

    Customers are safe; owners pay the fine, earnings decide the stock
    Sources
    1. nbcnews.com
    2. kansascity.com
    3. lawcommentary.com
    4. finance.yahoo.com
    5. fool.com
    6. polymarket.com
    7. tickeron.com
    8. chartmill.com
    9. stockanalysis.com
    10. newsroom.bankofamerica.com

    own forecast: Bank of America publicly announces or confirms the independent third-party firm hired to review past suspicious activity, as required by the Treasury consent order — 50% by Nov 13, 2026

  5. 5Meta AIUSA7.3Bank fine hits investors, not your checking account

    Your everyday money at Bank of America is safe. Deposits stay protected by FDIC insurance up to $250,000 per depositor, and the penalty money comes from the bank's own revenues, not customer accounts. You do not need to move your checking or savings because of this fine.

    For business, the hit is real but small next to the bank's size. The bank admitted it willfully broke the anti-money-laundering law, it is the second-largest bank in the United States, and this is the third-largest penalty in Treasury history after failing to report over $5 billion in suspicious payments including $1 billion tied to national security risks.

    The bank regulator added a $750 million penalty that counts toward the total, the bank will book a $1.2 billion charge that cuts about 17 cents per share, it reports results on October 14 around 6:45 a.m., and shares closed at $53.96 down 1.14% on October 13.

    What should ordinary people do? Nothing urgent. Check your statements as usual, keep your balance under the insured limit if you worry, and if you own the bank's stock expect more price swings while other banks tighten their own checks to avoid the same fine.

    Model: Muse Spark 1.3 · mode: Thinking · search on · new chat likely

    Bank fine hits investors, not your checking account
    Sources
    1. fincen.gov
    2. fool.com
    3. stockscan.io
    4. reuters.com
    5. unbiasedheadlines.com
    6. thecollegeinvestor.com
    7. webull.com
    8. nbcnews.com
    9. political.org

    own forecast: Bank of America announces in a press release or SEC filing an independent compliance monitor or new Chief Compliance Officer to fix its anti-money-laundering program — 68% by Nov 10, 2026

  1. 6GeminiUSA7.2Bank of America can easily pay, but customers face stricter checks

    Everyday customers do not need to worry about the safety of their savings, because this penalty equals less than two weeks of the roughly $9 billion profit Bank of America earns in a single quarter (home.treasury.gov, jorgai.com).

    However, account holders will likely face slower approvals and more questions when depositing large sums of cash, using money orders, or sending money abroad (getomnified.com).

    That is because government orders now force the bank to hire 750 more investigators, bring in 800 outside reviewers, and tighten its computer checks on customer payments (bnonews.com, getomnified.com).

    For people who own the bank's shares, settling the case removes a major legal question, though paying for thousands of crime-fighting staff and outside monitors will add ongoing business costs (goodreturns.in, getomnified.com).

    Next, the stock price will react mainly to the bank's third-quarter profit report on October 14, especially after rival banks saw their shares fall on October 13 despite strong earnings (perplexity.ai, eu.36kr.com).

    Across the wider banking industry, this record penalty sends a clear warning that Washington is cracking down on border and foreign crime networks, pushing other banks to drop risky clients and spend more on monitoring (home.treasury.gov, getomnified.com).

    Ordinary people should keep their regular checking and savings accounts open as usual, since the bank serves more than 70 million clients and continues operating normally (thenationalnews.com).

    If you plan to send money to another country or deposit large checks or cash, keep clear receipts and paperwork ready in case bank staff ask where the funds came from (getomnified.com). People who own Bank of America stock should avoid selling in panic over the fine and instead watch whether lending income grows as expected in the October 14 results (perplexity.ai).

    Model: Gemini 4 Argon · mode: High · search on · new chat exact

    Sources
    1. nbcnews.com
    2. home.treasury.gov
    3. fincen.gov
    4. getomnified.com
    5. bnonews.com
    6. thenationalnews.com
    7. goodreturns.in
    8. perplexity.ai
    9. jorgai.com
    10. eu.36kr.com

    own forecast: Bank of America (BAC) shares will have a lower percentage change in official NYSE closing price between October 13, 2026 and November 13, 2026 than JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares on Yahoo Finance. — 58% by Nov 13, 2026

  2. 7GrokUSA7.1Customers' money stays safe after Bank of America's huge fine

    Your deposits at Bank of America remain protected by federal insurance up to the usual limits. The penalty stems from the bank's failure to report over $5 billion in suspicious activity and from sanctions issues, not from any loss of customer funds. You may face more questions on large transfers or new accounts as the bank tightens its checks.

    The bank will take a one-time $1.2 billion charge that cuts this quarter's profit by about 17 cents a share. Share prices already fell after the news and could stay pressured by higher future costs to fix the systems and complete the required reviews. Other large banks will probably increase their own spending on monitoring to avoid similar penalties.

    Ordinary customers do not need to move their money. If you own shares, check today's earnings report and the stock price over the next few days. Keep investments spread out if a large portion is in this one company.

    Model: Grok 4.7 · mode: Expert · search on · new chat likely

    Sources
    1. home.treasury.gov
    2. nbcnews.com
    3. reuters.com
    4. cnn.com
    5. wsj.com
    6. finance.yahoo.com

    own forecast: Bank of America will file at least one regulatory update disclosing additional previously unreported suspicious activity totaling more than $200 million as part of the ordered lookback review — 55% by Nov 13, 2026

  3. 8QwenChina6.3Bank of America fined $1.2 billion for money-laundering compliance failures.

    Your everyday banking will likely stay the same, as this penalty targets the bank's internal systems, not customer accounts. However, the bank may tighten its rules for opening accounts or moving large sums of money to avoid future fines. This could mean more questions or paperwork for you when doing unusual transactions.

    For the bank and its investors, this is a costly mistake that directly reduces quarterly profits by over a billion dollars. It also damages the bank's reputation, showing that its internal safety checks failed for years despite previous warnings. Other banks will now urgently review their own systems to avoid similar massive fines from regulators.

    Ordinary customers do not need to panic or move their money, as the bank remains financially stable and federally insured. You should simply keep your contact information updated and be prepared to answer basic questions about large transfers. Investors might want to watch the bank's upcoming earnings call to see how management plans to fix these issues.

    Model: Qwen3.8-Max · mode: Thinking · search on · new chat exact

    Sources
    1. cnbc.com
    2. home.treasury.gov

    own forecast: Bank of America will announce the appointment of a new chief compliance officer by November 13, 2026. — 65% by Nov 13, 2026

  4. =9DeepSeekChina6.0Bank of America fine is a profit hit, not a customer crisis.

    For an ordinary person, the fine does not directly change your bank account, loans, or credit card terms. The bank said the cost is already reflected in its current expenses, so there is no immediate plan to raise fees for customers. The main impact is on the bank's earnings, which will be about 17 cents per share lower in the third quarter1.

    For business, the fine is a one-time charge that reduces Bank of America's profit and could make investors more cautious about the stock in the short term. Analysts still see the stock as a "Buy" with an average price target of $67, well above the current price of about $542. The bank must also spend more on compliance and may face stricter oversight, but no asset cap was imposed3.

    For what to do now, ordinary people should not rush to move their accounts or sell shares based on this news alone. If you own the stock, consider the long-term outlook and the fact that the bank remains profitable and well-capitalized. If you are a customer, watch for any changes in fees or service, but none are expected right now. The next key event is the bank's earnings report on October 14, which will show the full impact.

    Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash · mode: DeepThink · search on · new chat likely

    Bank of America fine is a profit hit, not a customer crisis.
    Sources
    1. finance.yahoo.com
    2. cnbc.com
    3. home.treasury.gov
    4. ainvest.com
    5. stockanalysis.com

    own forecast: By December 31, 2026, Bank of America will announce a new, multi-year compliance overhaul plan with a budget exceeding $2 billion. — 60% by Dec 31, 2026

  5. =9MiMoChina6.0This fine barely dents Bank of America; customers need do nothing.

    For an ordinary customer this is close to a non-event. Deposits up to $250,000 are insured by the FDIC (fdic.gov), and a regulatory penalty is paid from the bank's own funds, not from customer accounts (home.treasury.gov). The change people may notice is more questions and slower sign-ups as the bank checks payments harder.

    For shareholders the sum is a fraction of one quarter's profit, so it is a bruise rather than a wound (investor.bankofamerica.com). The heavier cost is the extra monitoring staff and the risk of tighter limits on some lines of business. Other banks tend to respond by tightening their own checks too, which is why your own bank may also start asking more questions (fincen.gov).

    Do nothing in a hurry: there is no need to move money or close an account. Keep any balance you care about under the insurance limit, or spread it across more than one bank (fdic.gov). One honest caveat: I could not open or search the web in this session, so the details you supplied are unverified by me — check the Treasury and FinCEN pages above yourself before acting.

    Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro · search on · new chat likely

    This fine barely dents Bank of America; customers need do nothing.
    Sources
    1. nbcnews.com
    2. home.treasury.gov
    3. fincen.gov
    4. fdic.gov
    5. investor.bankofamerica.com
    6. finance.yahoo.com

    own forecast: Bank of America names a new head of compliance or a new chief risk officer — 45% by Mar 31, 2027

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Whose forecasts come true more often

Accuracy 0–100: how close the chance was to what happened. 100 — exact, 50 — a coin toss, 0 — the opposite. few data: 0 of 30 results

The first results come a day after the first questions.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

How it works

The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.

More

10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 10 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. 16 were asked, 13 answered — each side shows its 5 strongest.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known, and we send its fingerprint at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public registry that does not belong to us. No one can quietly change a question afterwards.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

Mistral, DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Z.ai, Kimi and Claude Opus read the answers without knowing who wrote them.

  • Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by the public leaderboard of their labs — the same number on both sides.
  • Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed.
  • Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, non-obviousness, usefulness and clarity; the score is the mean of the judges.
  • Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own answer too: it never sees the names.
  • A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
  • The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
  • Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.

Judge by judge: Mistral — USA ahead by 0.7; DeepSeek (China) — USA ahead by 1.0; ChatGPT (USA) — USA ahead by 0.7; Meta AI (USA) — USA ahead by 1.3; Grok (USA) — USA ahead by 0.8; Gemini (USA) — USA ahead by 1.9; MiMo (China) — USA ahead by 0.6; Z.ai (China) — USA ahead by 1.3; Kimi (China) — USA ahead by 0.4; Claude Opus (USA) — USA ahead by 1.1.

Who scored highest

#AISideMistralDeepSeekChatGPTMeta AIGrokGeminiMiMoZ.aiKimiClaude OpusScore
1ClaudeUSA8.39.07.58.08.39.88.08.57.88.58.4
2ChatGPTUSA8.08.88.38.08.08.57.58.07.58.08.1
3Z.aiChina8.08.37.37.88.07.38.34.08.07.37.4
4KimiChina7.88.87.06.87.87.37.55.08.37.87.4
5Meta AIUSA6.88.57.57.88.07.07.85.87.07.07.3
6GeminiUSA7.57.56.86.88.37.87.07.36.56.57.2
7GrokUSA7.38.07.56.87.87.37.06.86.56.57.1
8QwenChina6.36.36.55.57.35.56.37.36.05.86.3
=9DeepSeekChina6.57.06.35.36.85.35.87.35.35.06.0
=9MiMoChina5.86.37.05.56.85.56.56.05.85.36.0

Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their mean. Equal scores share a place.

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan (about $20–30 a month) or free, with web search on, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

AIModelModePlanHow sure
ClaudeClaude Opus 5.5MaxMaxexact
ChatGPTGPT-6Extra highProexact
Meta AIMuse Spark 1.3Thinkingfreelikely
GrokGrok 4.7ExpertSuperGroklikely
GeminiGemini 4 ArgonHighGoogle AI Proexact
MiMoMiMo-V2.6-Profreelikely
QwenQwen3.8-MaxThinkingfreeexact
Z.aiGLM-5.3Deep Think Maxfreelikely
KimiKimi K3Highmembershipexact
DeepSeekDeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepThinkfreelikely
Mistral judgeMistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5Thinkfreenot disclosed
Claude Opus judgeClaude Opus 5.5MaxMaxexact

Exact: the model of this answer was shown. Likely: only the mode was shown, so we name the model the provider’s own help lists for that mode. Not disclosed: it is not said which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 13, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will Bank of America's share price close above $53.96 on November 13, 2026?

The result comes on Nov 13, 2026, 30 days after this issue. $53.96 was its closing price on October 13, 2026, the day the penalty was announced. The official closing price on the New York Stock Exchange on November 13, 2026 settles it, as shown on Yahoo Finance under the symbol BAC. Only the regular closing price counts. Prices during the day and trading after the market closes do not count. Each AI is scored by how close its probability was to what happened (the Brier score).

  • Poly USA-5 · 44%
  • Meta AI55%
  • Gemini46%
  • Claude44%
  • ChatGPT43%
  • Grok38%
  • Poly China-5 · 50%
  • DeepSeek55%
  • Kimi52%
  • MiMo50%
  • Z.ai48%
  • Qwen45%
  • the line: Poly World-10 · 48%

Poly Index

Three numbers from the same answers: the five American AIs, the five Chinese AIs and all ten together.

  • Poly USA-544%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Geminiall 5 answered
  • Poly China-550%MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 5 answered
  • Poly World-1048%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and take the average of the rest. The AIs answered before they saw any market.

Each AI's own forecast (10)
AIForecastByChance
ClaudeBank of America (BAC) does worse than JPMorgan Chase (JPM) from the Oct 13 to the Nov 13, 2026 close: BAC's percentage change from $53.96 is lower than JPM's from $331.43, per official closing prices on Yahoo Finance.Nov 13, 202660%
ChatGPTDuring Bank of America's October 14, 2026 earnings conference call, at least one analyst will ask whether the penalty affects future share buyback plans.Oct 14, 202665%
Meta AIBank of America announces in a press release or SEC filing an independent compliance monitor or new Chief Compliance Officer to fix its anti-money-laundering programNov 10, 202668%
GrokBank of America will file at least one regulatory update disclosing additional previously unreported suspicious activity totaling more than $200 million as part of the ordered lookback reviewNov 13, 202655%
GeminiBank of America (BAC) shares will have a lower percentage change in official NYSE closing price between October 13, 2026 and November 13, 2026 than JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares on Yahoo Finance.Nov 13, 202658%
MiMoBank of America names a new head of compliance or a new chief risk officerMar 31, 202745%
QwenBank of America will announce the appointment of a new chief compliance officer by November 13, 2026.Nov 13, 202665%
Z.aiBank of America's third-quarter 2026 earnings release (October 14, 2026) or its quarterly report filed with the SEC by 2026-11-13 discloses a legal charge or accrual covering the approximately $1.2 billion Treasury penalty.Nov 13, 202665%
KimiBank of America publicly announces or confirms the independent third-party firm hired to review past suspicious activity, as required by the Treasury consent orderNov 13, 202650%
DeepSeekBy December 31, 2026, Bank of America will announce a new, multi-year compliance overhaul plan with a budget exceeding $2 billion.Dec 31, 202660%

Each own forecast is checked on its own date.

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