Oct 14, 2026New trend every hour

Trend of the day · Finance & marketsFinance & markets · Oct 14, 2026

Late-night TV sidekick voted off dance show on its Super Bowl night

Late-night TV sidekick voted off dance show on its Super Bowl night

Fans can keep a weak dancer on the show for weeks, but to win a couple also needs the judges.

This trend is still forming: the judges' scores and the conclusion will appear here as they come.

Forecast before the AIs

Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.

Who gets more Wikipedia readers on Thursday: Guillermo or Witney?

Why this question: His dance partner, who was eliminated with him

We’ll know the answer

This question’s own page →

Whose forecasts come true more often →

They agree
6 of 8 say Paralympic athlete Ezra Frech is best placed to win.
They split
Nova and DeepSeek say votes still rescue low scores; Kimi and Gemini say no.
Not obvious
Frech and Jenna Dewan are tied, so viewer votes may decide the final.
What to do
Cast all 20 votes each Tuesday while the East Coast broadcast is live.
What to watch
If Frech and Dewan stay at the top of the judges' scores into November, it holds.
Read in full

Most of the eight answers agree on one point. Viewer votes and judges' scores are added together, so a loved but weak dancer can last for weeks. Once the field gets smaller, a big gap in scores is too large for votes to close. Kimi and Gemini point to Guillermo Rodriguez's run: very low scores for four weeks, kept alive by fans of the late-night show, then out at 22 of 40.

They also agree on who leads. Six of eight name Paralympic athlete Ezra Frech with Daniella Karagach as best placed. Four also name actress Jenna Dewan with Val Chmerkovskiy. The two tied at 36 of 40 on Super Bowl Night and lead the season totals with 122 and 121 points. Amber Glenn and Maura Higgins follow close behind. DeepSeek adds that betting markets give Frech about a 56% chance.

They split on how much votes alone can do. Nova and DeepSeek say a loyal fan base can still carry a low scorer. Kimi, Gemini and MiMo say the exit proves fans buy time, not safety. Kimi adds a warning sign: Tyler Cameron scored a mid-table 30 but was among the last two called safe. That suggests a middling score with a soft vote is now the danger zone. With the two leaders tied on skill, the final may come down to which fans turn out.

What a viewer can do: vote every Tuesday until the November 24 final. Each person gets 10 votes per couple online at dwtsvote.abc.com and 10 by text to 21523. Voting is open only during the live East Coast broadcast, from 8 p.m. Eastern (5 p.m. Pacific) until shortly after the last dance.

On the website, click save before the window closes. Western fans must vote before the show airs locally. Put all your votes behind one couple and get friends to do the same.

They split: Nova and DeepSeek say votes still rescue low scores; Kimi and Gemini say no.
What settles the dispute: If the lowest scorer goes home on October 20, the judges' side is right.

No real split: AIs from both sides name the same leaders and give the same voting advice.

What is confirmed and what is not

  • Confirmed by a source  Frech and Dewan tied at 36 of 40; Rodriguez had the night's low of 22
  • The AIs' conclusion Fan votes buy a weak dancer time, but a big score gap ends the run

The AIs read 52 sources

Ask any AI yourself

I'm a fan of a couple on Dancing With the Stars and live on the West Coast. Plan my weekly voting so I use all 20 votes in time.

Copy it and paste it into a chat with any AI

Ask several AIs at once — in our app

Who wins, who loses: Couples with high scores and loyal fans gain; popular but weak dancers lose.

All 10 answers ↓▶ Watch how it came together
Fans can keep a weak dancer on the show for weeks, but to win a couple also needs the judges.

On October 13, 2026, the American TV dance contest "Dancing With the Stars" held its first Super Bowl Night. Guillermo Rodriguez, the sidekick on the late-night talk show "Jimmy Kimmel Live", was sent home after the lowest judges' score of the night.

Ten couples remain, and the final is on November 24, 2026. The winner is decided by judges' scores and viewers' votes together (source).

What does this exit tell us about how this contest is won? Who is now best placed to win, and why? What should a viewer who wants to help their favorite couple do over the coming weeks?

In plain words: Dancing With the Stars — American TV contest: celebrities dance with professionals; Super Bowl — the yearly American football final; Jimmy Kimmel Live — an American late-night TV talk show; sidekick — the host's regular on-air helper; ABC — a major American TV channel; TODAY — an American morning TV news show

What the world's 10 leading AIs think

  1. ClaudeUSAFan votes saved Guillermo for four weeks; winning needs top scores too

    Votes can carry a weak dancer for weeks, but the winner needs strong scores too, since each week the couple with the lowest combined total of scores and votes goes home (hollywoodreporter.com, latenighter.com).

    Guillermo had the lowest or tied-lowest judges' score in each of the first four weeks, yet better dancers such as Ciara Miller, on 21 of 30, left first; this week Tyler Cameron, on a middling 30 of 40, was the other couple left at the end (yahoo.com, tvline.com, talentrecap.com).

    Best placed is Paralympic athlete Ezra Frech with past champion Daniella Karagach: they tied Jenna Dewan for top score with four 9s, and bettors on the site Kalshi gave him a 56% chance to win and 97% to make the final (parade.com, en.wikipedia.org, news.kalshi.com, news.kalshi.com).

    For Disney's ABC, the exit ends a free weekly promotion for Jimmy Kimmel Live, whose host checked in with the couple every Tuesday, while the theme night itself promoted the Super Bowl that ABC and ESPN will air on Feb. 14, 2027 (cinemablend.com, dancemogul.com).

    More than $7.9 million had been bet on Kalshi's markets for the show by Oct. 7, yet the bettors' favorite to go home before each show was wrong in weeks 2, 3, 4 and 5, including 48% on Tyler this week against about 14% on Guillermo (rotowire.com, news.kalshi.com, news.kalshi.com, news.kalshi.com, covers.com).

    For anyone betting money or buying ads around the show, the lesson is that votes are hard to guess from scores.

    Vote while the show is live: voting opens at 8 p.m. Eastern and closes soon after the last dance, so West Coast fans cannot wait for their local airing (hollywoodlife.com). Each week use both routes, up to 10 votes online at DWTSVote.abc.com (press save) and 10 by texting your couple's keyword to 21523, and give them only to your favorite, since votes for others lift the couples yours must beat (hollywoodlife.com).

    Never relax after a high score, and mark the dates: Oct. 20, Oct. 27, Monday Nov. 2, Nov. 10, the semifinal Nov. 17 and the finale Nov. 24 (hollywoodlife.com, dancemogul.com).

    Model: Claude Opus 5.5 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Max · searched the internet · new chat

    Fan votes saved Guillermo for four weeks; winning needs top scores too
    Sources
    1. today.com
    2. hollywoodreporter.com
    3. latenighter.com
    4. yahoo.com
    5. tvline.com
    6. talentrecap.com
    7. justjared.com
    8. parade.com
    9. en.wikipedia.org
    10. news.kalshi.com
    11. news.kalshi.com
    12. cinemablend.com

    Its own forecast: Ezra Frech and Daniella Karagach receive at least one perfect 10 from a judge, for any dance, on or before Grammy Night on November 10, 2026, as shown by ABC's results and the season's Wikipedia page. — 72% chance by Nov 10, 2026

  2. DeepSeekChinaViewer votes count for half, so low scores alone don't decide the winner

    For an ordinary viewer, this exit proves that a couple can survive bad judges' scores if enough fans vote for them, because the final result is roughly half judges' points and half viewer votes. Tyler Cameron and Sharna Burgess have been near the bottom on the leaderboard for weeks, yet they are still in the competition, which shows that a loyal fan base can keep a weaker dancing pair alive.

    The couples now best placed to win are those who combine high judges' scores with strong viewer support, like Ezra Frech and Daniella Karagach, who have both top scores and prediction-market odds around 56%.

    For the businesses involved, this system means the show's revenue depends on keeping viewers engaged enough to vote, because viewer votes are literally half the outcome. ABC and Disney sell advertising based on live viewership, and the voting window (open only during the live broadcast) is designed to keep people watching until the very end of each episode.

    A couple with a small but passionate fan base can outlast a better dancer with a larger but less motivated audience, which makes the contest less predictable and therefore more valuable as live television.

    A viewer who wants to help their favorite couple should vote the maximum ten times per couple every week, using both the online option at dwtsvote.abc.com and the text option (sending the celebrity's first name to 21523).1

    Voting only works during the live broadcast, so they must watch the show as it airs on ABC or Disney+ and vote before the window closes. They should also encourage others in the couple's fan community to do the same, because a organized voting bloc can overcome a low judges' score.

    Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): DeepThink (thinks before answering) · searched the internet · new chat

    Viewer votes count for half, so low scores alone don't decide the winner
    Sources
    1. northjersey.com
    2. usmagazine.com
    3. ew.com
    4. news.kalshi.com
    5. justjared.com
    6. en.wikipedia.org
    7. people.com
    8. freep.com

    Its own forecast: Ezra Frech and Daniella Karagach win Dancing With the Stars season 35 — 55% chance by Nov 24, 2026

  3. GeminiUSAFan votes cannot overcome low scores forever; Ezra Frech now leads.

    Loyal viewers can carry a weak dancer through the early rounds, as late-night television fans did for four weeks after a near-record low 10 out of 30 in week one (thetab.com), but once only ten couples remain, viewer votes alone cannot save the lowest score on the board (en.wikipedia.org(American_TV_series)_season_35).

    Track and field athlete Ezra Frech with partner Daniella Karagach and actress Jenna Dewan with Val Chmerkovskiy are now in the best position to win after tying for first place on Tuesday with 36 out of 40 (tvinsider.com).

    Both couples lead the full-season standings with 122 and 121 total points while combining strong dance skills with warm fan support (en.wikipedia.org(American_TV_series)_season_35).

    For television companies and consumer brands, even a mid-season exit turns five weeks of live broadcasts on ABC and Disney+ into strong business results after 6.77 million viewers watched the season opener (en.wikipedia.org(American_TV_series)_season_35).

    ABC used Jimmy Kimmel's nightly comedy show—including his promise to pay studio audience members $5,000 if his sidekick won—to bring late-night viewers to the Tuesday dance show (thetab.com).

    At the same time, weeks of prime-time visibility helped push Rodriguez's new grocery brand, Guillermo's Salsa, onto Kroger supermarket shelves across the country as the eighth-largest chilled salsa brand in the United States (massmarketretailers.com).

    A viewer who wants to help a favorite couple reach the November 24 final should cast the full limit of 20 votes for that pair every Tuesday: 10 online votes at DWTSVote.abc.com and 10 text message votes sent to 21523 (parade.com).

    Because the voting window opens when the live broadcast starts at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time and closes shortly after the last dance, people in western time zones must vote during the Eastern broadcast instead of waiting for their local television airing (hollywoodlife.com). Putting all 20 weekly votes behind one favorite couple—and clicking save on the website before voting closes—gives that pair the strongest push when audience totals are added to the judges' marks (parade.com).

    Model: Gemini 4 Argon (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet · new chat

    Sources
    1. tvinsider.com
    2. en.wikipedia.org
    3. thetab.com
    4. massmarketretailers.com
    5. hollywoodlife.com
    6. parade.com

    Its own forecast: Ezra Frech and Daniella Karagach will receive at least one score of 10 from a judge on Dancing With the Stars season 35 by the end of Horror Movie Night on October 27, 2026, as shown on the season's Wikipedia page. — 68% chance by Oct 28, 2026

  4. GrokUSAVotes save low scorers briefly but high scores win the trophy

    Guillermo Rodriguez’s exit shows that strong fan support can keep a low-scoring couple alive for weeks, but judges’ marks eventually decide who stays. The contest mixes expert scores with viewer votes, so pure popularity is not enough to reach the end or take the trophy. Everyday fans who want their favorite to go far must keep voting every week while the couple also improves enough to avoid the bottom of the scoreboard.

    For the show itself, the mix keeps viewers invested and ratings steady. High-scoring couples with clear stories draw steady attention and sponsor interest, while underdogs create short bursts of social media talk that fade once they leave. The business model relies on both the expert ranking and the audience participation that lasts across many episodes.

    A viewer who wants to help a favorite couple should vote during every live show. Go to the official voting site or text the keyword to the given number, and use the full allowed number of votes while the window is open. Do this each Tuesday from the start of the broadcast until shortly after the last dance, and encourage others to do the same.

    Model: Grok 4.7 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Expert · searched the internet · new chat

    Votes save low scorers briefly but high scores win the trophy
    Sources
    1. today.com
    2. abcnews.com
    3. covers.com
    4. hollywoodreporter.com
    5. readersfusion.com
    6. en.wikipedia.org

    Its own forecast: Ezra Frech will still hold the highest prediction-market probability to win season 35 after the October 20 Dedication Night episode — 72% chance by Oct 21, 2026

  5. KimiChinaGuillermo's exit shows fan votes can only carry weak dancers so far

    Guillermo survived five weeks at or near the bottom of the judges' leaderboard (10, 12, 15, 13 points) because viewers kept voting for him; this week a 22 out of 40 was finally too big a gap for votes to close, and he went home (en.wikipedia.org(American_TV_series)_season_35, northjersey.com).

    The lesson for any fan: this contest is won by judges' scores plus viewer votes together, so the winner needs both decent dancing and a loyal crowd. Best placed now are Jenna Dewan with Val Chmerkovskiy and Ezra Frech with Daniella Karagach, who tied at the top with 36 out of 40, with Amber Glenn (34) and Maura Higgins (33) close behind (today.com).

    Tyler Cameron and Sharna Burgess scored 30 but were among the last two called safe, so they look vulnerable despite the Bachelor fan base (tvinsider.com).

    For the business side, this is the system working as designed. ABC and Disney simulcast the show on Disney+ with next-day streaming on Hulu, and live voting keeps viewers watching in real time, which is what advertisers pay for (hollywoodreporter.com).

    A beloved but weak dancer leaving once the gap is too big protects the show's credibility, and Super Bowl Night doubled as a promotion for Super Bowl LXI, which airs on ABC and ESPN in February 2027 (pagesix.com). Fan-favorite exits also fuel next-day coverage across outlets like People, E! and USA Today, which is free marketing for the rest of the season.

    If you want your favorite to last to the November 24 finale, voting matters more than complaining about judges. Voting is live only during the East Coast broadcast, up to 10 votes per couple per method, on ABC's website and by texting 21523, so West Coast fans must vote between about 5 and 6:45 p.m. Pacific (azcentral.com, hollywoodreporter.com).

    Use all 10 votes both ways every Tuesday starting October 20, and get friends to do the same, because Guillermo proved a big fan base buys time, not safety.

    Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet · new chat

    Guillermo's exit shows fan votes can only carry weak dancers so far
    Sources
    1. today.com
    2. hollywoodreporter.com
    3. northjersey.com
    4. tvinsider.com
    5. en.wikipedia.org
    6. pagesix.com
    7. azcentral.com
    8. hollywoodreporter.com
    9. eonline.com

    Its own forecast: Connor Wood and Rylee Arnold are eliminated from Dancing With the Stars season 35 in one of the episodes aired by November 3, 2026 — 50% chance by Nov 4, 2026

  1. Meta AIUSALow judges' scores finally beat fan love

    You can stay a long time with low scores if people like you, but not forever. Guillermo survived weeks at the bottom because viewer votes count with judges' scores, then on Super Bowl Night his 22 out of 40 was too low and the combined total put him out.

    For the business that matters a lot. ABC and Disney+ keep the show live so you must vote during the East Coast show, and the mix of scores and votes keeps fans watching and talking. That pushes attention to top scorers like Ezra Frech and Daniella Karagach and Jenna Dewan and Val Chmerkovskiy who tied at 36 out of 40 on Super Bowl Night and now look best placed for the final on November 24.

    If you want to help your favorite, vote live. Voting opens at 8 p.m. ET and closes right after the last dance, you get up to 10 votes per couple on the website dwtsvote.abc.com and 10 by text, so vote early each Tuesday. Next is Dedication Night on October 20, then 10 couples fight to the finale.

    Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet · new chat

    Low judges' scores finally beat fan love
    Sources
    1. https://www.today.[STRIPPED 86 bytes]
    2. northjersey.com
    3. usatoday.com
    4. ballroomcompanion.com
    5. en.wikipedia.org
    6. palmbeachpost.com
    7. parade.com

    Its own forecast: Ezra Frech and Daniella Karagach will finish in the top two on the judges' leaderboard on Dedication Night — 68% chance by Oct 20, 2026

  2. MiMoChinaFan love is not enough: dance scores plus votes decide this contest

    Guillermo was a fan favourite, yet he left with the night's lowest score, 22 out of 40, while Jenna Dewan and Ezra Frech both hit 36 [TODAY](today.com). So the contest is not won by popularity alone: each week the judges' marks and the viewers' votes are combined, and a big score gap is hard to vote away [TODAY](today.com).

    Best placed now are Dewan with Val Chmerkovskiy and Frech with Daniella Karagach, tied at the top with 36 and glowing judges' praise, with Maura Higgins and Mark Ballas close behind at 33 and still rising [TODAY](today.com).

    For ABC, live voting turns viewers into participants, so people watch on the night instead of later, which keeps live ratings and ad prices strong [TODAY](today.com).

    For brands, each couple becomes a weekly talking point, and the Super Bowl theme night shows how the show plugs big events to reach sports fans too [TODAY](today.com).

    If you want to help a couple, vote every single week, not once: a good dance with no votes can still lose, and a popular pair with a weak score can go home like Guillermo did [TODAY](today.com).

    Use every vote ABC allows on the night of the show, and keep going until the final on November 24 [TODAY](today.com).

    Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro (from the app's help page) · searched the internet · new chat

    Fan love is not enough: dance scores plus votes decide this contest
    Sources
    1. today.com

    Its own forecast: Jenna Dewan and Val Chmerkovskiy top the judges' leaderboard on Dedication Night (October 20, 2026) with at least 36 of 40 — 40% chance by Oct 20, 2026

  3. Nemotron + MercuryUSAViewer votes outweigh judge scores in deciding who stays

    The elimination shows that low judge scores can be survived if fans vote heavily, but even decent scores aren't enough without a strong fan base. The contest rewards popularity as much as dancing skill.

    ABC casts celebrities with built-in audiences because they drive ratings and ad revenue more than unknown great dancers. The network's business model depends on viewer engagement, not just technical merit.

    To help your favorite couple, vote every day on the official app and website, and post about them on social media to remind others to vote. Consistent daily votes from many fans matter more than occasional bursts.

    Model: Nemotron 3 Ultra (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High

    Sources
    1. today.com
    2. abcnews.com
    3. en.wikipedia.org

    Its own forecast: The couple with the highest cumulative judge score entering Week 10 will not win Season 35 — 65% chance by Nov 24, 2026

  4. QwenChinaWinning requires high judges' scores and active fan votes.

    This exit shows that winning needs both high judges' marks and strong fan support (today.com). A low score puts a couple in danger, so ordinary viewers must vote online or by text during the live show to save them (freep.com).

    Television contests mix expert judging with audience votes to keep people watching live and boost advertising money (today.com).

    Paralympic champion Ezra Frech now leads the ranking list with 122 points, bringing a great story that attracts sponsors (justjared.com).

    Fans should vote up to ten times on the official website or by texting the dancer's name to the show's number during the broadcast (people.com). Sharing the couples on social media also helps gather more votes before the final show on November 24 (hollywoodlife.com).

    Model: Qwen3.8-Max (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet · new chat

    Sources
    1. today.com
    2. freep.com
    3. justjared.com
    4. people.com
    5. hollywoodlife.com

    Its own forecast: Ezra Frech and Daniella Karagach will score at least 35 out of 40 points on the November 10 episode. — 65% chance by Nov 11, 2026

  5. Z.aiChinaA $1.2 billion fine stings, not sinks: deposits safe, checks slower.

    For customers, the honest answer is: almost nothing happens to your money. The bank is being punished for not filing reports about other people's suspicious payments — no customer deposits were lost. Deposits up to $250,000 per person are insured by the government (fdic.gov).

    What you may notice is friction: more questions about unusual transfers, slower international payments and the occasional frozen account, because the bank will now over-check everything to avoid a second fine.

    For shareholders and other banks, the fine is big but survivable: it equals roughly two weeks of the bank's normal profit, and history says giant banks absorb such penalties and move on — BNP Paribas paid $8.9 billion in 2014 and HSBC $1.9 billion in 2012 without lasting damage (fincen.gov).

    The real message to the industry is that sloppy reporting of suspicious payments gets punished even at the biggest names, so expect every large bank to spend more on compliance staff and systems this year. Shareholders should watch Wednesday's quarterly results, which come a day after the fine, to see how the charge is booked and whether profits still grew (investor.bankofamerica.com).

    What should ordinary people do? Nothing urgent. Do not switch banks over a fine the bank can easily pay — judge it by how it treats your account, not by headlines. Keep simple records for any large transfer you make, so extra checks clear faster. Investors should resist panic-selling a one-day dip; the thing that would change the story is a second, bigger enforcement action, not this one.

    Model: GLM-5.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Deep Think Max (deepest thinking)

    Sources
    1. nbcnews.com
    2. fdic.gov
    3. fincen.gov
    4. fincen.gov
    5. investor.bankofamerica.com
    6. finance.yahoo.com
    7. consumerfinance.gov
    8. occ.gov

    Its own forecast: Bank of America's third-quarter 2026 earnings release (October 14, 2026) or its quarterly report filed with the SEC by 2026-11-13 discloses a legal charge or accrual covering the approximately $1.2 billion Treasury penalty. — 65% chance by Nov 13, 2026

Previous trends

A flag beside a date: whose AIs scored higher that day.

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Whose forecasts come true more often

Accuracy 0–100: how close the chance was to what happened. 100 — exact, 50 — a coin toss, 0 — the opposite. Too early to judge: 0 of 30 questions checked so far.

The first results come a day after the first questions.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

How it works

The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day.

More

10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

  • How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan (about $20–30 a month) or free, with web search on, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

AIModelThinking modePlanHow we know the model
ClaudeClaude Opus 5.5MaxMaxthe app showed it
Meta AIMuse Spark 1.3Thinkingfreefrom the app's help page
GrokGrok 4.7ExpertSuperGrokfrom the app's help page
GeminiGemini 4 ArgonHighGoogle AI Prothe app showed it
Nemotron + MercuryNemotron 3 UltraHighfree, no sign-inthe app showed it
Mercury web search for Nemotron + MercuryMercury 2.5Highfreethe app doesn't say
MiMoMiMo-V2.6-Profreefrom the app's help page
QwenQwen3.8-MaxThinkingfreethe app showed it
Z.aiGLM-5.3Deep Think Max (deepest thinking)freefrom the app's help page
KimiKimi K3Highpaid subscriptionthe app showed it
DeepSeekDeepSeek V4.1 FlashDeepThink (thinks before answering)freefrom the app's help page

Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 13, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will Tyler Cameron still be dancing after November 10?

The exact question every AI answered: Will Tyler Cameron and Sharna Burgess still be in "Dancing With the Stars" season 35 after the Grammy Night episode on November 10, 2026, as shown by the season's results on ABC and the Wikipedia season page by 2026-11-13?

The result comes on Nov 13, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. It counts as yes only if they were not eliminated in any episode up to and including November 10. A withdrawal counts as no. If the November 10 episode is moved, use the last episode aired by November 13, 2026. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.

together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer

  • Five AIs from the USA together · 45%
  • Grok68%
  • Nemotron + Mercury55%
  • Gemini42%
  • Meta AI38%
  • Claude25%
  • Five AIs from China together · 45%
  • MiMo55%
  • Z.ai48%
  • Kimi48%
  • Qwen40%
  • DeepSeek35%
  • All ten AIs together · 45%

Poly Index

The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.

  • Five AIs from the USA45%Claude, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron + Mercuryall 5 answered
  • Five AIs from China45%MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 5 answered
  • All ten AIs45%Claude, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, Nemotron + Mercury, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.

Each AI's own forecast (10)
AIForecastChecked onChance
ClaudeEzra Frech and Daniella Karagach receive at least one perfect 10 from a judge, for any dance, on or before Grammy Night on November 10, 2026, as shown by ABC's results and the season's Wikipedia page.Nov 10, 202672%
Meta AIEzra Frech and Daniella Karagach will finish in the top two on the judges' leaderboard on Dedication NightOct 20, 202668%
GrokEzra Frech will still hold the highest prediction-market probability to win season 35 after the October 20 Dedication Night episodeOct 21, 202672%
GeminiEzra Frech and Daniella Karagach will receive at least one score of 10 from a judge on Dancing With the Stars season 35 by the end of Horror Movie Night on October 27, 2026, as shown on the season's Wikipedia page.Oct 28, 202668%
Nemotron + MercuryThe couple with the highest cumulative judge score entering Week 10 will not win Season 35Nov 24, 202665%
MiMoJenna Dewan and Val Chmerkovskiy top the judges' leaderboard on Dedication Night (October 20, 2026) with at least 36 of 40Oct 20, 202640%
QwenEzra Frech and Daniella Karagach will score at least 35 out of 40 points on the November 10 episode.Nov 11, 202665%
Z.aiBank of America's third-quarter 2026 earnings release (October 14, 2026) or its quarterly report filed with the SEC by 2026-11-13 discloses a legal charge or accrual covering the approximately $1.2 billion Treasury penalty.Nov 13, 202665%
KimiConnor Wood and Rylee Arnold are eliminated from Dancing With the Stars season 35 in one of the episodes aired by November 3, 2026Nov 4, 202650%
DeepSeekEzra Frech and Daniella Karagach win Dancing With the Stars season 35Nov 24, 202655%

Each own forecast is checked on its own date.

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