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Oct 14, 2026New trend every hour

Trend of the day · JapanJapan

Japan's champion baseball team loses first playoff game at home

Japan's champion baseball team loses first playoff game at home

Most AIs say the loss only cancelled Hanshin's free win; the star hitter's leg now matters more than the score.

USA7.1:China5.1

average of its top 5 AIs · today's answers, scored out of 10 by other AIs acting as judges — not who will guess the future← Previous trend: Bayern Munich throws away a 3-0 lead and draws in Norway

Forecast before the AIs

Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.

Will hurt star Sato get a hit for Hanshin on Thursday?

Now: 0 hits in Game 1

Why this question: Hanshin's star batter was hurt by his own foul ball during the game

We’ll know the answer tomorrow, Thursday

This question’s own page →

The result of the last question

Will the Chinese electric carmaker BYD's share price rise on Wednesday?

Result: «No»

3 of 8 AIs’ forecasts came true:

DeepSeekClaudeChatGPT

Checked on: finance.yahoo.com

Whose forecasts come true more often →

They agree: 7 of 10: both teams need three more wins, all at Hanshin's park.
They split: Claude and Kimi see Hanshin ahead; Meta AI and Grok call it wide open.
Not obvious: The shutout hides that Hanshin out-hit DeNA 7 to 3.
What to do: Check the lineup an hour before Thursday's game to see if Sato plays.
What to watch: If Sato plays Thursday and Hanshin scores first, its favorite status holds.
Only one AI: Only Claude: SoftBank went 3–0 against Hanshin this year.

Read in full

Most of the AIs agree on the basics. The loss spent Hanshin's one free win, the count is 1–1, and each team needs three more wins. Every remaining game is at Hanshin's home park, and if the totals end level, Hanshin goes through. Two answers (Qwen and DeepSeek) got the win count wrong, and Z.ai answered about a different sport.

They split on who is ahead. Claude, ChatGPT, Kimi and MiMo keep Hanshin a narrow favorite, citing its ace Haruto Takahashi (16 wins, 3 losses) and the home games. Claude and Kimi add that first-place teams caught at 1–1 went through in 8 of 15 past cases, which is close to a coin flip. Meta AI, Grok, Gemini and DeepSeek lean toward DeNA having the momentum, or call the series wide open.

The better answers note that Hanshin's manager blamed an older leg problem that flared up, not the foul ball. They also point out that Hanshin out-hit DeNA 7 to 3 and still lost, because its middle hitters went 0 for 7. So Sato's leg and hitting with runners on base matter more than the 2–0 score.

A longer series means more ticket, food and TV money around the stadium. A person following the series can check Sato's name on the lineup before Thursday's 6 p.m. Japan-time game. They can also watch whether Hanshin scores first against DeNA's starter, Shuto Ogata.

They split: Claude and Kimi see Hanshin ahead; Meta AI and Grok call it wide open.
What settles the dispute: Thursday's Game 2 will show whether Hanshin or DeNA has the edge.

No clear split: AIs from both countries mostly favor Hanshin narrowly and focus on Sato's leg.

What is confirmed and what is not

The company says so Hanshin's manager says Sato's old leg problem flared up, not the foul ball.
The AIs' conclusion First-place teams caught at 1–1 advanced in about 8 of 15 past cases.
The AIs' conclusion Hanshin remains a narrow favorite to reach the final.

The AIs read 56 sources

Ask any AI yourself

My team lost Game 1 of a best-of-seven series at home. How worried should I be, and what should I watch in Game 2?

Copy it and paste it into a chat with any AI

Ask several AIs at once — in our app

Who wins, who loses: Stadium shops and bars win from a long series; a Hanshin exit costs them.

The final answer, by Claude Opus

All 10 answers ↓▶ Watch how it came together

Most AIs say the loss only cancelled Hanshin's free win; the star hitter's leg now matters more than the score.

On October 14, 2026, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars beat the Hanshin Tigers 2–0 at Hanshin's home stadium in Game 1 of the Central League final. Japan's public broadcaster NHK reported that the series is now level at 1–1, counting the one bonus win Hanshin got for winning the league.

Hanshin's star batter Teruaki Sato left the game after his own foul ball hit his leg (source).

What does this loss mean for Hanshin and for DeNA? What is likely to happen in the rest of the series, and what should fans watch for?

In plain words: Hanshin Tigers — Osaka-area baseball team, this year's league winner; Yokohama DeNA BayStars — baseball team from Yokohama, near Tokyo; DeNA — Japanese internet company that owns the BayStars; Central League — one of Japan's two top baseball leagues; NHK — Japan's public TV and radio broadcaster; Teruaki Sato — Hanshin's star home-run hitter; Japan Series — Japan's baseball championship between the two leagues' winners; Koshien — Hanshin's home baseball stadium near Osaka

What the world's 10 leading AIs think

Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Under each answer: its model — the exact version of the AI. Tap an answer to read it.

1ClaudeUSA8.5Head start gone: Hanshin still slight favorite if Sato's leg holds
For fans, Hanshin is still slightly more likely to reach the Japan Series, the national final (I say 58 in 100), but its head start is gone: each team now needs three more wins, all at Koshien (tokyo-np.co.jp, tmubl.jp).
That is close: first-place teams caught at 1–1 like this went through in 8 of 15 past cases (news.yahoo.co.jp), and DeNA's pitchers have allowed just 2 runs in three playoff games (tmubl.jp, tokyo-np.co.jp).
Hanshin's edge rests on Thursday's pitcher Haruto Takahashi, 16 wins and 3 losses this year (news.yahoo.co.jp), and on Teruaki Sato's leg: the manager says the foul ball was not the cause, an older problem flared up, and doctors are checking (daily.co.jp).
For Hanshin's business, a long series is not all bad: the host team keeps the money from these games, and a 2025 estimate put one Koshien playoff game at about ¥400 million in sales (nikkan-gendai.com).
The bigger money is in going further: the league title alone was estimated to add about ¥105 billion in spending, with fans' drinking money the biggest piece (news.yahoo.co.jp). If DeNA wins instead, Japan Series games 1, 2, 6 and 7 move from Koshien to DeNA's home in Yokohama, taking those crowds with them (npb.jp).
Fans: before Thursday's 6 p.m. Japan-time game (tmubl.jp), check whether Sato plays from the start, because Hanshin's two big home-run hitters, Morishita and Sato, went 0 for 7 in Game 1 (news.yahoo.co.jp).
Keep title hopes modest either way: SoftBank, the other league's champion, leads its own playoff 3–0 counting a two-win bonus (tokyo-np.co.jp), and went 14–4 against Central League teams this year, including 3–0 against Hanshin (npb.jp, npb.jp). Shops and bars planning victory sales should wait: this series ends by October 19, or October 21 if rain pushes it back (tmubl.jp).
Model: Claude Opus 5.5 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Max · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: After Game 4 of the 2026 Central League final, neither Hanshin nor DeNA has 4 wins (Hanshin's bonus win counts), so a Game 5 is needed, as shown on npb.jp. — 74% chance by Oct 21, 2026
2KimiChina8.2Hanshin still favored, but Sato’s leg shifts the series.
My conclusion: Hanshin is still slightly more likely to advance, but DeNA now has a real route, not a miracle. When earlier Central League finals became tied at one win each, the league winner still advanced four times out of six; across comparable NPB playoffs, eight of 15 advanced.
(topics.smt.docomo.ne.jp) Sato’s uncertain leg is why this hurts beyond one loss: Hanshin’s manager said an existing symptom had become stronger and that doctors were checking him. (news.infoseek.co.jp)
For business, Game 2 is the pivot: Hanshin can restore the favorite’s story, while DeNA can create an upset that attracts neutral viewers. Demand is already intense—every Koshien date sold out, and the newly offered visitor seats disappeared immediately.
(nikkansports.com) DeNA is also offering free viewing at Yokohama Stadium during the finals, so a longer fight can mean more nights of attention and ballpark spending. (baystars.co.jp)
Now watch Sato’s pregame condition, Hanshin’s first four hitters, and whether Takahashi keeps runners off base. Takahashi won 16 games and lost 3 while allowing 1.87 earned runs per nine innings; Ogata won 7 and lost 3 while allowing 3.29 overall, but was 3–1 at 2.66 against Hanshin.
(news.ntv.co.jp) A DeNA victory would leave Hanshin needing three wins from the last four, so Sato’s condition and the first run are the immediate signals. (npb.jp)
Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Game 2 between Hanshin and DeNA will be tied or separated by one run when the sixth inning is complete. — 58% chance by Oct 15, 2026
3ChatGPTUSA8.1DeNA erased Hanshin’s cushion, but Hanshin remains the narrow favorite
Hanshin has lost its head start, not its chance: both teams now need three more wins, but Hanshin still plays every remaining game at home and advances if the final win totals are tied (npb.jp). Hanshin remains my narrow favorite because it won 79 regular-season games against DeNA's 71 and had the stronger pitching staff (npb.jp).
DeNA now has a genuine opening, especially if Hanshin's leading hitter Sato is limited by what his manager described as a worsening pre-existing condition, rather than an injury caused by the foul ball (full-count.jp).
For businesses around Koshien, a longer series means more opportunities for ticket, food and merchandise sales; the opening game attracted 42,645 spectators (npb.jp). Broadcasters and sponsors could benefit from additional high-interest games, while DeNA could gain valuable national attention if its unexpected success continues.
Still, one win does not prove DeNA is dominant: Hanshin recorded seven hits against DeNA's three, suggesting that better use of scoring chances could quickly reverse the result (npb.jp).
Watch the October 15 pitching contest: Hanshin's Haruto Takahashi won 16 games and allowed just 1.87 earned runs per nine innings this season, compared with seven wins and 3.29 for DeNA's Shuto Ogata (npb.jp; npb.jp; npb.jp).
Fans should also watch Sato's medical status and whether Hanshin finally scores when runners are in good positions, something it repeatedly failed to do in Game 1 (full-count.jp). I expect a competitive series with Hanshin narrowly advancing, although the eventual winner would probably face a formidable SoftBank team that won 91 regular-season games and has already built a commanding playoff lead (npb.jp; npb.jp).
Model: GPT-6 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Extra high · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Game 5 of the Hanshin–DeNA Central League final is played at Koshien on October 18, 2026, because neither team clinches the series in the first four games. — 72% chance by Oct 18, 2026
4GrokUSA6.8Hanshin must win soon at home or DeNA takes control
For ordinary fans, this loss wipes out Hanshin's free win and leaves the series even, so either side can reach the Japan championship series with three more victories.
DeNA looks lively after beating the better regular-season team on the road, while Hanshin's top pitcher struggled and their best hitter left with a leg problem that the manager called an old issue that got worse. Many supporters now worry the home crowd will not be enough if the batting stays quiet.
For local shops and businesses, a full stadium of more than forty-two thousand people already brings ticket money, food sales, and souvenirs to the Koshien area.
A longer series means more of that spending, and Hanshin's league title alone was estimated to add over one hundred billion yen to the economy through extra eating, drinking, and shopping. If the Tigers fall early, that playoff boost shrinks; if they advance, more television money and merchandise sales follow.
Watch whether the star hitter can play on October 15 and how the home pitcher handles DeNA's next starter. The series can still end by the middle of next week if one team wins three in a row, so fans should check official scores each night and note any lineup changes.
Model: Grok 4.7 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Expert · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Hanshin Tigers win Game 3 of the Central League final at Koshien on October 16, 2026 — 62% chance by Oct 16, 2026
5Meta AIUSA6.4Hanshin's free win is gone, series is now wide open
Hanshin came in with a free win for winning the league. That free win is now gone after the 2-0 loss at Koshien. After one real game the count is 1-1, so Hanshin must win the hard way and DeNA knows it can win at Hanshin's home.
For business this is good. A longer final at Koshien means packed crowds, more food and shirt sales, and big TV numbers in Kansai. Hanshin won the league this year and sponsors expect a trip to the Japan Series that starts October 24, but DeNA already showed it can win on the road and force extra games.
What to watch now is health and pitching. Can Sato walk and swing after his own foul ball hit his leg and forced him out? Can Hanshin's staff keep DeNA to one or two runs if Murakami is down? If DeNA wins again on October 15, Hanshin will need three wins in four games.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Teruaki Sato will be back in Hanshin's starting lineup by Game 4 on October 17, 2026 — 62% chance by Oct 17, 2026

6MiMoChina5.7Hanshin still leads the series, but Sato's injury is the bigger worry
For an ordinary Hanshin fan this defeat changes little on paper: the Tigers still hold the lead in the race to four wins, because winning the league gave them a one-win head start and the count is only 1–1 (news.yahoo.co.jp).
The bigger worry is who is fit to play. Teruaki Sato, Hanshin's best hitter, left the game after fouling a ball off his own leg, and being without him would hurt more than one loss (news.yahoo.co.jp).
For the clubs this is good business. A level series means more games, and every extra game at Koshien and Yokohama brings ticket money and TV advertising. DeNA winning away against Hanshin's ace also raises the odds of extra home games in Yokohama later in the week, which the club and its sponsors can sell.
Now watch two things. First, whether Sato starts Game 2 at Koshien on October 15 at 18:00 Japan time. Second, whether Hanshin's batters score early, after being shut out while their ace, Shoki Murakami, gave up two runs in six innings and left the mound looking downcast (news.yahoo.co.jp). Expect a long, tight series: since a tie in the standings sends Hanshin through, DeNA has to win four games outright.
Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro (from the app's help page) · searched the internet
Sources
1. news.yahoo.co.jp
Its own forecast: Hanshin and DeNA will split Games 2 and 3 on October 15 and 16, one win each — 45% chance by Oct 16, 2026
7GeminiUSA5.6DeNA wipes out Hanshin's head start, making every remaining game count.
This defeat wipes out Hanshin's free head-start win, turning the series into an even race where both teams need three more victories to reach the national championship (news.yahoo.co.jp). For an ordinary viewer, this means a longer and tighter fight that will likely last at least four or five games at Koshien stadium, though Hanshin still goes through if the overall series ends in a tie (npb.jp).
However, losing both their best thrower's game and possibly their main hitter Teruaki Sato to a leg bruise leaves Hanshin struggling to score runs against DeNA's strong defense (news.yahoo.co.jp).
For business, a tied series guarantees at least three more days of packed stadium seats, food and drink sales, and train rides for Hanshin's parent railway company (npb.jp). Television networks and local bars in Osaka and Yokohama also gain millions of viewers because neither team can be knocked out before Saturday (news.yahoo.co.jp).
Right now, fans and ticket buyers should check the starting player list one hour before Thursday's game to see if Teruaki Sato can walk and swing without pain (news.yahoo.co.jp).
Viewers should also watch whether Hanshin's other hitters can finally score early runs, or if DeNA's backup throwers — the fresh players who replace the main thrower late in the game — lock down another low-scoring win (npb.jp). If you plan to travel to Koshien stadium later this week, book train and game tickets early because the opening loss makes weekend games almost certain to happen (npb.jp).
Model: Gemini 4 Argon (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Sources
1. news.yahoo.co.jp
2. npb.jp
Its own forecast: The 2026 Central League final between the Hanshin Tigers and the Yokohama DeNA BayStars will reach at least Game 5 on October 18, 2026, as shown in the official results on npb.jp. — 65% chance by Oct 21, 2026
8DeepSeekChina5.0Hanshin's bonus win is spent; the series is now a five-game sprint with DeNA holding momentum.
For an ordinary fan, this loss means Hanshin's free 1-0 head start is gone. The Tigers must now win four of the next six games, while DeNA only needs three more wins because the series is effectively level at 1-1. The injury to Teruaki Sato, Hanshin's best hitter, adds real worry; if he cannot play, the team loses its main power threat. For business, a longer series means more ticket, food, and merchandise sales at Koshien.
But a DeNA upset would hurt Hanshin's brand and the expected revenue from a Japan Series run. DeNA, a smaller-market team, gains huge exposure and sponsor interest with each additional game. Fans should watch two things: whether Sato plays in Game 2 and how Hanshin's pitchers handle DeNA's hot hitters like Maki and Sano. A loss in Game 2 would put Hanshin in a deep hole, forcing them to win four of the remaining five games.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): DeepThink (thinks before answering) · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Hanshin Tigers win Game 2 of the 2026 Central League final against DeNA on October 15, 2026. — 55% chance by Oct 15, 2026
9QwenChina4.0Hanshin pitching and hitting struggles give DeNA early series momentum.
Hanshin losing their top pitcher and star hitter makes winning the championship much harder. The series is now tied at one win each, meaning DeNA needs three more victories while Hanshin needs four. Ordinary fans should expect a tense battle where every single run matters immensely.
A long playoff series increases television ratings, ticket sales, and team merchandise revenue. DeNA playing well in Hanshin's home city boosts their brand value and attracts new corporate sponsors. If the series reaches a final game, the host team will earn millions from extra broadcast rights.
Fans should buy tickets for the remaining games immediately because they will sell out very fast. Viewers should watch the starting pitcher matchups closely, since tired backup pitchers will decide the late innings. Check team websites daily for injury updates on star players before making friendly wagers.
Model: Qwen3.8-Max (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Shoki Murakami starts another game in the Central League final. — 30% chance by Oct 20, 2026
10Z.aiChina2.4Sloppy late defending, not weak attack, cost Bayern in Norway.
The draw was self-inflicted, not bad luck. Bayern conceded after 71 seconds, then led 3:1 but lost control of the game: Michael Olise's second yellow card left ten men on the pitch, and tired defenders let two late goals in. Throwing away a lead that late is a problem of closing out games, not of quality.
For the season, the damage is small but the warning is real. In the current Champions League format — 36 clubs, eight games each, the top eight skip the first knockout round — one away draw costs little, and an attack that scores three away from home should still carry Bayern through. The harder tests come quickly: RB Leipzig at home on Saturday, then the usual run of league, cup and European games through November.
The changes are easy to name and hard to do: protect a lead with calm passing instead of more risk, keep eleven men on the pitch, and use substitutes earlier so defenders are not exhausted in the final minutes.
Olise now misses European matches only, which forces rotation and may even freshen the team. Fans should watch Saturday's game: if Bayern again lead and again wobble, the late collapse is a habit; if they close the match out, Norway was a one-off.
Model: GLM-5.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Deep Think Max (deepest thinking) · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Bayern Munich beat RB Leipzig at home in the Bundesliga on October 17, 2026, according to the final score on bundesliga.com. — 60% chance by Oct 17, 2026

MLB is HUGE in Japan!

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Previous trends

A flag beside a date: whose AIs scored higher that day.

Forming now: The mother behind the Friday the 13th killer gets her own show

Whose forecasts come true more often

Accuracy 0–100: how close the chance was to what happened. 100 — exact, 50 — a coin toss, 0 — the opposite. Too early to judge: 1 of 30 questions checked so far.

Who		Accuracy	Came true
DeepSeek	China	55	1 of 1
Claude	USA	53	1 of 1
ChatGPT	USA	52	1 of 1
Gemini	USA	45	0 of 1
Kimi	China	44	0 of 1
Qwen	China	40	0 of 1
Meta AI	USA	32	0 of 1
Wenxin (文心, Baidu; ERNIE)	China	32	0 of 1
A coin (always 50%)		50	—
Team USA (average)	USA	45	0 of 1
All AIs together (the middle answer)		44	0 of 1
Team China (average)	China	43	0 of 1

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

How it works

The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.

More

10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 10 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. In all, 16 AIs were asked and 15 answered; the page shows the 5 strongest from each country.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

Mistral, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi and DeepSeek read the answers without knowing who wrote them.

Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by public rankings of AIs (LMArena, Artificial Analysis and others) — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, insight beyond the obvious, usefulness and clarity; the score is the average of the judges.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own answer too: it never sees the names.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.

Judge by judge: Mistral — USA ahead by 1.9; ChatGPT (USA) — USA ahead by 2.6; Meta AI (USA) — USA ahead by 1.9; Grok (USA) — USA ahead by 1.8; Gemini (USA) — USA ahead by 2.5; MiMo (China) — USA ahead by 1.6; Qwen (China) — USA ahead by 1.5; Z.ai (China) — USA ahead by 2.1; Kimi (China) — USA ahead by 2.7; DeepSeek (China) — USA ahead by 1.5.

Who scored highest

#	AI	Side	Mistral	ChatGPT	Meta AI	Grok	Gemini	MiMo	Qwen	Z.ai	Kimi	DeepSeek	Score
1	Claude	USA	8.5	8.8	8.8	8.0	8.5	8.3	9.8	8.0	9.0	7.5	8.5
2	Kimi	China	8.0	8.8	7.8	8.0	8.8	7.5	8.8	7.8	8.5	8.0	8.2
3	ChatGPT	USA	7.8	9.0	7.5	7.8	8.5	7.8	8.8	7.8	8.3	8.0	8.1
4	Grok	USA	6.3	7.0	6.8	7.0	7.3	6.3	7.8	6.5	6.5	6.3	6.8
5	Meta AI	USA	6.5	7.3	6.5	6.8	6.5	6.0	5.3	5.8	6.5	7.3	6.4
6	MiMo	China	7.0	4.8	6.0	6.3	4.5	6.0	6.3	5.5	4.5	6.5	5.7
7	Gemini	USA	5.5	6.3	5.3	6.8	5.8	4.8	5.3	6.3	5.5	5.0	5.6
8	DeepSeek	China	4.5	4.5	5.5	6.0	5.0	4.5	7.0	4.5	3.5	5.3	5.0
9	Qwen	China	3.5	4.5	3.8	4.8	3.5	3.8	4.3	4.0	3.5	4.8	4.0
10	Z.ai	China	2.3	3.0	2.5	2.3	2.3	3.0	2.8	1.8	2.5	2.0	2.4

Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their average. Equal scores share a place.

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan (about $20–30 a month) or free, with web search on, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

AI	Model	Thinking mode	Plan	How we know the model
Claude	Claude Opus 5.5	Max	Max	the app showed it
ChatGPT	GPT-6	Extra high	Pro	the app showed it
Meta AI	Muse Spark 1.3	Thinking	free	from the app's help page
Grok	Grok 4.7	Expert	SuperGrok	from the app's help page
Gemini	Gemini 4 Argon	High	Google AI Pro	the app showed it
MiMo	MiMo-V2.6-Pro		free	from the app's help page
Qwen	Qwen3.8-Max	Thinking	free	the app showed it
Z.ai	GLM-5.3	Deep Think Max (deepest thinking)	free	from the app's help page
Kimi	Kimi K3	High	Pro ($39, vadimchernets9@)	the app showed it
DeepSeek	DeepSeek V4.1 Flash	DeepThink (thinks before answering)	free	from the app's help page
Mistral · AI judge	Mistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5	Think	Pro	the app doesn't say

Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 13, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will the winner here also win Japan's baseball championship?

The exact question every AI answered: Will the team that wins the 2026 Central League final (Hanshin Tigers or Yokohama DeNA BayStars) also win the 2026 Japan Series, as shown in the final results on Nippon Professional Baseball's official website (npb.jp) by 2026-11-13?

The result comes on Nov 13, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. Counts: the Central League team wins the Japan Series championship. Does not count: a Pacific League champion, or a Japan Series that has not finished by 2026-11-13. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.

together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer

Five AIs from the USA together · 38%
Meta AI45%
Gemini45%
Grok38%
ChatGPT32%
Claude30%
Five AIs from China together · 45%
DeepSeek52%
Z.ai50%
Qwen45%
MiMo40%
Kimi34%

All ten AIs together · 41%

Poly Index

The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.

Five AIs from the USA38%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Geminiall 5 answered
Five AIs from China45%MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 5 answered
All ten AIs41%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.

Each AI's own forecast (10)

AI	Forecast	Checked on	Chance
Claude	After Game 4 of the 2026 Central League final, neither Hanshin nor DeNA has 4 wins (Hanshin's bonus win counts), so a Game 5 is needed, as shown on npb.jp.	Oct 21, 2026	74%
ChatGPT	Game 5 of the Hanshin–DeNA Central League final is played at Koshien on October 18, 2026, because neither team clinches the series in the first four games.	Oct 18, 2026	72%
Meta AI	Teruaki Sato will be back in Hanshin's starting lineup by Game 4 on October 17, 2026	Oct 17, 2026	62%
Grok	Hanshin Tigers win Game 3 of the Central League final at Koshien on October 16, 2026	Oct 16, 2026	62%
Gemini	The 2026 Central League final between the Hanshin Tigers and the Yokohama DeNA BayStars will reach at least Game 5 on October 18, 2026, as shown in the official results on npb.jp.	Oct 21, 2026	65%
MiMo	Hanshin and DeNA will split Games 2 and 3 on October 15 and 16, one win each	Oct 16, 2026	45%
Qwen	Shoki Murakami starts another game in the Central League final.	Oct 20, 2026	30%
Z.ai	Bayern Munich beat RB Leipzig at home in the Bundesliga on October 17, 2026, according to the final score on bundesliga.com.	Oct 17, 2026	60%
Kimi	Game 2 between Hanshin and DeNA will be tied or separated by one run when the sixth inning is complete.	Oct 15, 2026	58%
DeepSeek	Hanshin Tigers win Game 2 of the 2026 Central League final against DeNA on October 15, 2026.	Oct 15, 2026	55%

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