What does this home defeat mean for Boca Juniors and for Vasco da Gama? What is likely to happen in the second match in Rio de Janeiro, and what would each team need to do to reach the final (source)?
In plain words: Boca Juniors — Argentina's most popular football club, from Buenos Aires; Vasco da Gama — football club from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Copa Sudamericana — South America's second-biggest club football cup; La Nación — a major Argentine daily newspaper; Maracanã — Rio de Janeiro's biggest, most famous football stadium; Conmebol — the body that runs South American football; Adson — Vasco da Gama forward who scored the goal
What to do
Don't pay for a non-refundable trip to Rio until a court and Conmebol confirm where the game is played.
Who should do what
Fans watching at home: Check Boca's squad list on October 20 to see if Paredes plays; if he is out, expect long balls.
What not to do: Don't book non-refundable travel to Rio on the idea that the stadium is settled.
The match is on Tuesday, October 20, at 21:30 in Rio. A draw sends Vasco to the November 21 final in Barranquilla, Colombia. Boca need to win by two goals.
The stadium is still in a court fight. Hours after a Rio judge reopened the Maracanã, the rival clubs' group appealed to a higher court. Conmebol has said it would use Asunción, Paraguay, instead.
Book only refundable flights and hotels until the ruling. If the Maracanã is confirmed, book Rio and bring ID for ticket pickup. If it moves, wait for Conmebol's Asunción details before you spend.
Watch October 20, 21:30 in Rio: a draw sends Vasco to the final; Boca need to win by two goals.
Check Boca's squad list on October 20 to see if the injured captain plays.
What the world's 10 leading AIs think
They agree
Most answers: any draw in Rio sends Vasco to the final.
They split
Meta AI and Grok call the Maracanã settled; Claude and Gemini see a risk.
Not obvious
The venue fight matters most: losing the home crowd is Boca's best hope.
What to watch
If the higher court lets the Maracanã stand, the home-crowd edge stays with Vasco.
Most of the ten agree on the arithmetic. Away goals no longer count and there is no extra time, so any Vasco draw or win sends them to the final. Boca must win by two goals to go through, and a one-goal win means a penalty shootout. Two answers, ChatGPT and Claude, put Vasco's chance near 77–78%.
The answers also agree on the style of play. Boca will attack from the first minute and Vasco will sit deep and wait for quick breaks. Boca had most of the ball in Buenos Aires but only two shots on target, and could not score against ten men for over half an hour. Several answers say an early Boca goal is their only real route.
They split on the stadium. Claude, Gemini and ChatGPT say the group run by rival clubs Flamengo and Fluminense has appealed to a higher Brazilian court. If that appeal wins, the South American football body Conmebol could move the game to Asunción, Paraguay. Meta AI and Grok call the Maracanã settled, which the others show is too early. Claude puts the chance the game stays in Rio at about 84%.
Ticket numbers also differ: some answers say 45,000–46,000 sold, others about 70,000. Only some answers track Boca's injury doubts, captain Leandro Paredes and Sebastián Villa. Only Claude notes that Gómez's ban could grow. Two answers, Qwen and Wenxin, made basic errors on the rules and on Boca's unbeaten run, so their advice was left out.
They split: Meta AI and Grok call the Maracanã settled; Claude and Gemini see a risk. What settles the dispute: The higher court's ruling and Boca's result on October 20 will show who is right.
AIs from the USA and China agree on the rules; the USA answers dug deeper into the venue and injuries.
What is confirmed and what is not
The AIs' conclusion A Vasco draw in Rio sends them to the final; Boca need two goals.
The AIs' conclusion The Maracanã could still be swapped for Asunción if an appeal wins.
The AIs' conclusion Vasco have about a 77–78% chance of reaching the final.
The AIs read 65 sources
Ask any AI yourself
Boca lost 1-0 at home to Vasco. If I plan to travel to Rio on October 20, which refundable options should I pick?
Who wins, who loses: Vasco and Rio match-day businesses gain; Boca and travelling fans carry the risk.
The final answer, by Claude Opus
Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Under each answer: its model — the exact version of the AI. Tap an answer to read it.
1ClaudeUSA8.6A team 14th in Brazil's league ended Boca's 17-game unbeaten run
Vasco are now clear favourites, about 77% by my estimate: any draw in Rio sends them to the final, while Boca must win by two goals, or by one and then win a penalty shootout (players take turns shooting from the penalty spot), with no extra 30 minutes and no bonus for away goals (diarioelatlantico.com.ar, cnnbrasil.com.br).
The blow stings Boca, with a final worth US$10 million and a Copa Libertadores place (South America's top club cup) to the champion: a team 14th in Brazil's league ended Boca's 17-game unbeaten run, and Boca could not score even with an extra man for over half an hour (primicias.ec, espndeportes.espn.com, otempo.com.br, lanacion.com.ar).
Expect Boca to attack from the first minute and Vasco to sit back and wait for quick breaks, both weakened: Vasco lose Andrés Gómez, who set up the goal, to a ban, while Boca may still lack captain Leandro Paredes (torn muscle at the back of the thigh, only 11 days to heal) and Sebastián Villa (mild ankle sprain) (lanacion.com.ar, cnnbrasil.com.br, 442.perfil.com, lanacion.com.ar).
Travelling fans face the biggest wild card: Vasco's own São Januário is below the 30,000-seat minimum set by Conmebol (South America's football body), and the company of rival clubs Flamengo and Fluminense that runs the Maracanã has asked Brazil's Superior Court of Justice, a national court, to block the game there, hours after a Rio court ordered the stadium opened (infobae.com, lance.com.br).
Conmebol has told Vasco and Brazil's football federation that if a court shuts the Maracanã, the match moves to Asunción, Paraguay, even though close to 50,000 tickets are sold, 4,000 of them for Boca fans (infobae.com, terra.com.br).
A neutral ground would take away Vasco's home crowd, the one change that would clearly lift Boca's chances, but I think there is about an 84% chance the game stays at the Maracanã.
Hold off, travelling fans, on non-refundable flights and hotels for Tuesday, October 20 (kick-off 21:30 Rio and Buenos Aires time) until the court rules: if the Maracanã is confirmed, book Rio; if not, wait for Conmebol's Asunción details before you spend (infobae.com, lance.com.br).
Fans watching at home should follow three late calls this week: whether Paredes and Villa recover in time, and whether Conmebol adds games to Gómez's ban for pushing the referee, which could also keep him out of the November 21 final in Barranquilla (minutouno.com, lanacion.com.ar, terra.com.br, beinsports.com).
Model: Claude Opus 5.5 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Max · searched the internet
Its own forecast: The Vasco–Boca second match is played at the Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro on October 20, 2026, and is not moved to Asunción or any other stadium — 84% chance by Oct 21, 2026
2GeminiUSA8.2Boca took 13 shots to 4 by Vasco and still lost
Vasco da Gama is now the strong favorite to reach the November 21 final because any win or tie in the October 20 return game sends the Brazilian team through, whereas Boca Juniors must win by two or more goals in regular 90-minute play to advance directly or win by exactly one goal to force tiebreaker kicks from the penalty spot, with no 30-minute extra period played (a24.com).
For fans, the defeat ended Boca's 17-game unbeaten run under coach Rodolfo Arruabarrena (radiohache.com) and showed how badly the team misses injured captain Leandro Paredes (pagina12.com.ar), as Boca took 13 shots with only 2 on target against Vasco's 4 shots (elargentinodiario.com.ar).
In Rio de Janeiro, Vasco—which sits 14th in the Brazilian league (oddschecker.com)—will likely defend deep again without winger Carlos Andrés Gómez, who set up the winning goal before getting sent off with two yellow warning cards in four seconds for pushing referee Piero Maza (noticiascaracol.com) (mdzol.com).
For travelling fans and ticket buyers heading to Brazil, the venue in Rio de Janeiro is caught in a court fight because Vasco's own São Januário stadium holds fewer than the 30,000 seats required by South America's football body, Conmebol (diariopopular.com.ar).
On October 13, Rio judge Joaquim Domingos de Almeida Neto ordered the group run by rival clubs Flamengo and Fluminense to open the Maracanã stadium for the October 20 game at 9:30 p.m. local time (lavoz.com.ar).
However, the stadium managers filed a new appeal to block the match, so Conmebol will have to assign another stadium if Rio's higher court accepts their request (radiohache.com).
Check the Rio court ruling and Conmebol stadium notice before Tuesday, October 20, 2026, at 9:30 p.m. Rio time if you are among the travelling fans: if the Maracanã stadium is confirmed, book transport there and carry a valid passport or national identity card for ticket pickup, and if not, wait for Conmebol to name the replacement ground before paying for local rides (footballticketsbrazil.com) (radiohache.com).
Watch Boca's medical report after its weekend league game against Talleres: if captain Leandro Paredes is cleared to play part of the October 20 match, expect Boca to create cleaner scoring chances, and if not, expect another game of long balls against a packed defense (a24.com) (pagina12.com.ar).
Model: Gemini 4 Argon (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Vasco da Gama will hold Boca Juniors to 0 goals in regular 90-minute play in the second-leg semifinal on October 20, 2026, as shown in the official match report on conmebol.com. — 52% chance by Oct 21, 2026
3ChatGPTUSA7.6Over 45,000 tickets issued, yet the semifinal could leave Brazil
Follow the October 20 score, fans: if Boca wins by two or more goals, prepare for Boca in the final; if not, watch for penalties after a one-goal Boca victory or Vasco advancing after a draw or win (elonce.com).
Boca's defeat ended a 17-match unbeaten streak, and its inability to score even against ten players makes the comeback difficult (lanacion.com.ar).
Vasco can now defend patiently and look for chances when Boca pushes forward, although it will miss Carlos Andrés Gómez, who assisted the winning goal and was sent off (semana.com).
I expect Boca to attack aggressively and Vasco to protect its advantage, with roughly a 78% chance of Vasco reaching the final; Boca's late chances in Buenos Aires show that an early goal could still transform the contest (directvsports.com).
Travelers face another uncertainty: more than 45,000 tickets have been issued for the Maracanã, but a continuing legal dispute involving Flamengo and Fluminense could move the match from Rio de Janeiro to Asunción, Paraguay (uol.com.br).
Confirm the venue before making nonrefundable travel arrangements; CONMEBOL's published schedule lists October 20 at 21:30 in Rio, with the final scheduled for November 21 in Barranquilla, Colombia (gol.conmebol.com).
Model: GPT-6 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Extra high · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Both Boca Juniors and Vasco da Gama will score at least one goal during normal time, including stoppage time, in their Copa Sudamericana semifinal second leg on October 20, 2026, according to CONMEBOL's official match report. — 44% chance by Oct 21, 2026
4Z.aiChina7.4Boca must score twice in Rio after historic loss
Vasco da Gama's 1-0 win at Boca Juniors' La Bombonera stadium gives the Brazilian club a crucial advantage in the Copa Sudamericana semifinal. Adson's header in the 24th minute from an Andrés Gómez cross proved decisive, and despite playing with ten men after Gómez's red card in the second half, Vasco held on for a historic victory.
This was Vasco's first-ever win at Boca's iconic stadium, joining an exclusive list of only eight Brazilian clubs to achieve this feat in CONMEBOL competitions.
For Boca Juniors, the defeat means they must now chase the tie in Rio de Janeiro. With no away goals rule in CONMEBOL competitions, a draw in the second leg would send Vasco through to the final. Boca needs to win by two clear goals to advance outright, while a one-goal victory would force a penalty shootout.
The pressure intensifies because they struggled with finishing in the first leg, hitting the woodwork twice and managing only two shots on target from 18 attempts despite dominating possession and territory.
Vasco da Gama, meanwhile, can approach the second leg with confidence but must compensate for Gómez's suspension. They demonstrated remarkable defensive resilience in Buenos Aires, making 58 clearances compared to Boca's 19, and will likely employ a similar compact, low-block strategy at the Maracanã.
Their goalkeeper Léo Jardim made several crucial saves, and the defensive partnership of Alan Saldivia and Robert Renan will be key again. Boca must find a way to break down this resolute defense while being clinical with their chances.
Model: GLM-5.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Deep Think Max (deepest thinking) · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Vasco da Gama qualifies for the 2026 Copa Sudamericana final by holding Boca Juniors to a draw or winning the second leg in Rio de Janeiro — 65% chance by Oct 21, 2026
5KimiChina7.2A draw in Rio now sends Vasco to Barranquilla
Boca are in real trouble: losing at home means they must attack in Rio, while Vasco can protect a 1-0 lead. Because away goals no longer count, a draw puts Vasco in the final; Boca need a two-goal win to go through directly, or a one-goal win to reach penalties. The warning for Boca is that they had most of the ball but only two shots on target, and still lost after Vasco went down to ten men.
This also changes things for people going to the game, not just fans watching. The venue fight has swung back and forth in court, but CONMEBOL now lists Vasco-Boca for Tuesday 20 October, 21:30, at the Maracanã. Reports say about 70,000 people are expected, with home sections sold out and 4,000 seats kept for visiting Boca fans.
Check the score early on Tuesday 20 October, fans: if Boca lead by two, stay for the finish; if not, Vasco are through. Expect Vasco to play slower, defend near their box, and use the crowd; Boca must score early, keep calm, and avoid the kind of push on the referee that cost Vasco Andrés Gómez. My lean is Vasco, because they only need not to lose and already held out for more than half an hour with ten men.
Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Its own forecast: CONMEBOL's report for Vasco vs Boca lists the Maracanã as venue and announced attendance above 50,000 — 70% chance by Oct 21, 2026
6DeepSeekChina6.970,000 tickets sold in hours for Maracanã second leg
Lose the home leg 1-0 and you're in trouble. Boca now must win by two clear goals in Rio to go through directly, or by one to force penalties. Vasco just need a draw or a one-goal loss to reach the final. The away goal rule no longer exists in this competition, so the margin is everything.
For ordinary fans in Buenos Aires, this means a week of anxiety and a likely expensive trip to Brazil for those who can afford it. For Vasco supporters in Rio, it's the opposite: 70,000 tickets for the Maracanã sold out in hours, and the club is one step from its first Copa Sudamericana final.
For local businesses around the Maracanã, that's a huge one-night boost. For Boca's board and sponsors, missing the final would cost millions in prize money and visibility.
Check the kickoff time: Tuesday, October 20, 21:30 local time in Rio. If Boca score first and keep a clean sheet, they force penalties and anything can happen; if Vasco score at any point, Boca need three goals to advance. So Boca fans should prepare for a nerve-racking night; Vasco fans should expect their team to sit deep and counter. The final is on November 21 in Barranquilla.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): DeepThink (thinks before answering) · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Vasco da Gama will be officially listed as a 2026 Copa Sudamericana finalist on conmebol.com after the second leg — 58% chance by Oct 21, 2026
7GrokUSA6.8Boca needs two-goal win in Rio after 17-game run ends
Vasco da Gama holds a clear edge after the away win, so Boca Juniors must chase a big result on October 20 in Rio. A draw or better for the Brazilian side puts them in the final in Barranquilla, while only a Boca win by two goals or more advances the Argentines directly. A one-goal Boca win would only match the total goals over both matches and send the tie to kicks from the spot, with no extra time played.
Ticket holders and travelers heading to Rio can firm up plans now that the court ordered the Maracanã open for the 21:30 kickoff, with more than 46,000 seats already sold. Businesses near the stadium stand to see a full midweek crowd once the venue fight cleared.
Boca fans, watch the early minutes on October 20. If the team scores twice before the break, stick with hope of a clean path through; if not, expect Vasco to sit deep and force a tight finish or penalty kicks.
Model: Grok 4.7 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Expert · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Boca Juniors scores no more than one goal in normal time of the second-leg match — 65% chance by Oct 21, 2026
8Meta AIUSA5.8One goal in Buenos Aires forces Boca to need two in Rio
Vasco leaves Buenos Aires ahead, but not safe. A single goal lead from an away win means Boca can erase it with one goal of their own, and needs two to go straight through. For regular fans that means the tie is still a coin flip, not a done deal.
For travelers and bars around Maracana, the stadium fight is now settled. A court order lets Vasco use Maracana for the return on Tuesday night, so expect a full big house. For the winner, a trip to Barranquilla on November 21 for the final is now just 90 minutes away.
Watch fans on Tuesday October 20 at 9:30 p.m. in Rio: if Boca scores first, settle in for Vasco to sit deep and the tie to go to penalties, kicks from the spot to break a tie; if not, expect Boca to push and leave gaps for Vasco to finish it.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Its own forecast: The second leg at Maracana on October 20 will go to a penalty shootout after a 1-0 Boca win in regular time — 30% chance by Oct 21, 2026
9QwenChina4.4No away goals means Boca must score twice to survive.
This home loss means Argentine fans must endure a tense night in Rio where one mistake ends their season. The old away-goal safety net is gone, so the team must score twice to avoid a penalty lottery.
Travelers flying to Rio de Janeiro for next Tuesday face a completely different match than the tense, defensive siege seen in Buenos Aires. Vasco supporters already expect a direct knockout and will pack the stadium to defend their massive advantage.
Grab your snacks, fans, on Tuesday, October 20, at 9:30 PM. If you trust the underdog, celebrate a low-scoring tie; if not, bet on Boca scoring twice to force an instant penalty shootout.
Model: Qwen3.8-Max (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Boca Juniors fails to win the second leg in normal time. — 65% chance by Oct 21, 2026
10WenxinChina4.310-man Vasco wins 1-0 at Boca's home
For ordinary fans, this result flips the whole semifinal script. Boca, who had gone 10 straight games without a loss, now have to overturn a deficit they did not expect at their own ground, while Vasco carry a priceless away-goal advantage into the return leg.
For sports betting markets and local match-day businesses in Rio, the lineups and ticket demand have both shifted sharply. Boca’s need to attack hard means more expected goals on both sides, which changes the odds and the likely number of fans travelling to the stadium.
Mark your calendars on October 20, fans. If you support Boca, show up early and hope they score fast to calm the tie; if you back Vasco, watch for early red cards that could swing everything in the second half.
Model: ERNIE (the app doesn't say) · mode (how long it thinks): Fast · searched the internet
Its own forecast: The second leg between Vasco da Gama and Boca Juniors will end in a 1-1 draw after normal time, forcing a penalty shootout — 58% chance by Oct 20, 2026
Boca Juniors vs Vasco Da Gama | QUICK HIGHLIGHTS Copa Sudamericana | 10/13/2026 | beIN SPORTS USA
Things the ten AIs did not say: what people say, the month in dates, numbers. Every item has its link. Checked 2026-10-14 19:26 EDT.
Light sideThe memes that roasted Boca after a silent BomboneraA defensive slip, an injured Paredes and a sad Bart Simpson: the internet laughed all night.
A huge bodybuilder meme turns the Boca defender's slip before Vasco's goal into a joke about mistakes making you stronger.source · infobae.com ↗
A video of a clumsy young horse chasing a ball stands in for Boca's lost midfield without the injured Paredes.source · infobae.com ↗
Bart Simpson in Boca colors, alone on an empty stand under grey skies, sums up the fans' mood after the 1-0.source · infobae.com ↗
What people sayFans on a night that felt unrealOne fan still cannot believe she is going to Vasco against Boca.
surreal esse jogo que o Vasco fez na bombonera, que noite meus amgs 🥳🖤🤍💢 @SamaraVieiraso3 · 2026-10-14source · x.com ↗
Essa é a primeira vez que um clube brasileiro coloca 4 mil pessoas na bombonera, diante da nova regra da Conmebol. @IgorDiniz662844 · 2026-10-14source · x.com ↗
Eu não acredito que eu vou na Semi de Vasco x Boca ......💢❤️ @meelsilvsa · 2026-10-14source · x.com ↗
Mas o dia de hoje ficou marcado pra mim como um dia mais felizes como torcedor do Vasco. @gameiro_1898 · 2026-10-14source · x.com ↗
Talked about now75 years, no win over Boca. Then Vasco did it with ten men.Vasco's last win over Boca was a 1951 friendly (3-0). This one came in a Copa Sudamericana semifinal.
Brazilian fans are talking about the surprise. CNN Brasil says Vasco ended a 75-year wait for a win over Boca. The only earlier win was a 3-0 friendly in 1951. 2026-10-14source · cnnbrasil.com.br ↗
The referee is the other big question. Lance says fans argued over an early hard tackle on Gómez that got only a yellow, with no VAR check. Gómez was then sent off for two yellows. 2026-10-14source · lance.com.br ↗
Boca will ask why they lost. Lance lists two crossbar hits (Blanco, Ascacíbar) and two misses by Enner Valencia. Vasco's Paulo Henrique shot wide one-on-one. 2026-10-14source · lance.com.br ↗
NumbersWhat a seat and a screen costThe October 9 ticket notice listed visitor seats at R$200 full fare.
The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.
(License CC BY 4.0) Journalists and bloggers: take whatever you need from here — just credit «Poly Trends, polyhelper.ai».
More
10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 11 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. In all, 16 AIs were asked and 14 answered; the page shows the 5 strongest from each country.
Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.
We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.
Mistral, Claude Opus, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek and Wenxin read the answers without knowing who wrote them.
Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by public rankings of AIs (LMArena, Artificial Analysis and others) — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed — and every judge gets its own order, so no answer is first for everyone.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, insight beyond the obvious, usefulness and clarity; the score is the average of the judges, with strict and generous judges put on one scale.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is. When it happens to score its own AI's answer, that mark is shown but not counted.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.
Judge by judge: Mistral — USA ahead by 0.9; Claude Opus (USA) — USA ahead by 1.5; ChatGPT (USA) — USA ahead by 1.2; Meta AI (USA) — USA ahead by 2.0; Grok (USA) — USA ahead by 1.5; Gemini (USA) — USA ahead by 1.6; Qwen (China) — USA ahead by 1.0; Z.ai (China) — USA ahead by 0.7; Kimi (China) — USA ahead by 1.5; DeepSeek (China) — USA ahead by 2.3; Wenxin (China) — USA ahead by 0.6.
Who scored highest
#
AI
Side
Mistral
Claude Opus
ChatGPT
Meta AI
Grok
Gemini
Qwen
Z.ai
Kimi
DeepSeek
Wenxin
Score
1
Claude
USA
7.8
8.3
8.0
8.5
8.3
8.8
9.3
9.5
8.5
9.0
9.3
8.6
2
Gemini
USA
7.5
7.5
7.5
8.5
7.8
8.3
8.3
8.8
7.8
9.0
8.8
8.2
3
ChatGPT
USA
7.3
7.0
7.8
7.0
7.8
7.8
8.3
8.0
7.5
8.3
7.5
7.6
4
Z.ai
China
7.0
6.5
8.5
6.3
7.0
7.3
8.3
8.0
7.3
8.3
8.0
7.4
5
Kimi
China
7.8
5.8
7.0
7.3
7.3
6.0
8.3
7.8
8.0
7.8
7.0
7.2
6
DeepSeek
China
7.0
4.8
5.8
7.0
7.0
6.0
7.8
8.3
7.5
7.3
7.5
6.9
7
Grok
USA
6.0
6.0
6.3
6.8
7.3
6.8
7.8
7.5
6.8
8.3
6.5
6.8
8
Meta AI
USA
6.0
4.5
6.0
4.8
6.0
5.5
7.5
5.8
6.0
6.5
5.3
5.8
9
Qwen
China
4.5
2.8
3.8
4.3
5.5
3.8
6.3
6.3
4.0
4.0
5.0
4.4
10
Wenxin
China
4.3
3.3
4.3
3.0
4.3
4.3
4.5
6.8
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.3
Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their average. Equal scores share a place.
Which models answer
The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan (about $20–30 a month) or free, with web search on, once.
Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.
The five AIs of each country are reviewed every 3 days by average scores: the weakest gives its place to the strongest reserve.
AI
Model
Thinking mode
Plan
How we know the model
Claude
Claude Opus 5.5
Max
Max
the app showed it
ChatGPT
GPT-6
Extra high
Pro
the app showed it
Meta AI
Muse Spark 1.3
Thinking
free
from the app's help page
Grok
Grok 4.7
Expert
SuperGrok
from the app's help page
Gemini
Gemini 4 Argon
High
Google AI Pro (polyhelper.ai@)
the app showed it
Qwen
Qwen3.8-Max
Thinking
free
the app showed it
Z.ai
GLM-5.3
Deep Think Max (deepest thinking)
free
from the app's help page
Kimi
Kimi K3
High
Pro ($39, vadimchernets9@)
the app showed it
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash
DeepThink (thinks before answering)
free
from the app's help page
Wenxin
ERNIE
Fast
free, no sign-in
the app doesn't say
Mistral · AI judge
Mistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5
Think
Pro
the app doesn't say
Claude Opus · AI judge
Claude Opus 5.5
Max
Max
the app showed it
Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.
The forecast · result on Nov 13, 2026
Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability
Will Vasco knock Boca out and reach the final?
The exact question every AI answered: Will Vasco da Gama qualify for the 2026 Copa Sudamericana final, as shown by the official result of the Vasco da Gama vs Boca Juniors semifinal second leg on the website of Conmebol, South America's football body (conmebol.com), by 2026-11-13?
The result comes on Nov 13, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. Counts: Vasco is officially listed as a finalist after the second match, including after a penalty shootout. Does not count: a match only scheduled, postponed or not yet finished by 2026-11-13; a result later changed on appeal counts only if the change is official by that date. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.
together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer
0%25%50%75%100%
Five AIs from the USA together · 73%
ChatGPT78%
Claude77%
Gemini74%
Grok68%
Meta AI62%
Five AIs from China together · 65%
Qwen75%
Kimi72%
Z.ai65%
DeepSeek58%
Wenxin52%
All ten AIs together · 69%
Poly Index
The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.
Five AIs from the USA73%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Geminiall 5 answered
Five AIs from China65%Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxinall 5 answered
All ten AIs69%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxinall 10 answered
How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.
Each AI's own forecast (10)
AI
Forecast
Checked on
Chance
Claude
The Vasco–Boca second match is played at the Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro on October 20, 2026, and is not moved to Asunción or any other stadium
Oct 21, 2026
84%
ChatGPT
Both Boca Juniors and Vasco da Gama will score at least one goal during normal time, including stoppage time, in their Copa Sudamericana semifinal second leg on October 20, 2026, according to CONMEBOL's official match report.
Oct 21, 2026
44%
Meta AI
The second leg at Maracana on October 20 will go to a penalty shootout after a 1-0 Boca win in regular time
Oct 21, 2026
30%
Grok
Boca Juniors scores no more than one goal in normal time of the second-leg match
Oct 21, 2026
65%
Gemini
Vasco da Gama will hold Boca Juniors to 0 goals in regular 90-minute play in the second-leg semifinal on October 20, 2026, as shown in the official match report on conmebol.com.
Oct 21, 2026
52%
Qwen
Boca Juniors fails to win the second leg in normal time.
Oct 21, 2026
65%
Z.ai
Vasco da Gama qualifies for the 2026 Copa Sudamericana final by holding Boca Juniors to a draw or winning the second leg in Rio de Janeiro
Oct 21, 2026
65%
Kimi
CONMEBOL's report for Vasco vs Boca lists the Maracanã as venue and announced attendance above 50,000
Oct 21, 2026
70%
DeepSeek
Vasco da Gama will be officially listed as a 2026 Copa Sudamericana finalist on conmebol.com after the second leg
Oct 21, 2026
58%
Wenxin
The second leg between Vasco da Gama and Boca Juniors will end in a 1-1 draw after normal time, forcing a penalty shootout
