On October 15, 2026, a business court in Lorient, in western France, ordered the Fonderie de Bretagne to close for good. The factory casts metal car parts, Renault founded it in 1966, and all 244 workers lose their jobs.
The French public news site franceinfo reported it (source).
What does this closure mean for the workers, for the town and for car-parts making in France and Europe? What is likely to happen next, and what can the people who lost their jobs do now?
In plain words: Fonderie de Bretagne — factory in Brittany that cast metal car parts; Renault — French carmaker that founded the factory in 1966; Lorient — port town in Brittany, western France; franceinfo — French public television and radio news service; business court — French court that handles failing companies; Europlasma — French investment group that owned the factory since 2025; Brittany — region in the far west of France
Dismissal letters are due by 5 November, and the choices you make in those 21 days decide your money.
Who should do what
Foundry workers: Register with France Travail this week and let the union press for extra pay.
Suppliers owed money: Send your unpaid invoices to the liquidator within two months of the official notice.
What not to do: Don't sign the job-security offer before comparing it with ordinary unemployment pay.
The legal minimum is guaranteed; anything extra is a negotiation. A state fund pays owed wages and legal severance. Extra pay depends on talks with Renault, which the workers' lawyer says still has money set aside.
Two 21-day clocks run, and they are not the same one. One covers when the dismissal letters must go out. The other starts when you get the job-security offer, which pays 75% of your reference pay for 12 months if you have a year's service.
Watch your mail until 5 November and keep every paper. If the letter and the offer arrive, compare the offer with ordinary unemployment pay with your union before signing. If nothing has come by then, call your union rep that day.
This is what most of the 10 AIs advise. Each AI explains it in its own words below.
What the world's 10 leading AIs think
They agree
8 of 10: Too few promised Renault orders sank the rescue.
They split
Claude and DeepSeek see Renault money left; MiMo says Renault owes nothing.
Not obvious
The legal minimum is secure; the fight is over Renault's extra money.
What to watch
If dismissal letters arrive by 5 November, the leaving-plan talks have closed.
Most of the ten blame the same cause: Renault was 95% of the foundry's 2024 sales, yet it would not guarantee future orders. The last serious buyer, a Dutch firm, left for that reason, and the January 2026 fire stopped the defence-shell plan. They also agree the plant will not restart. The real fight now is the size of the leaving pay.
They split on the money. Claude, DeepSeek and Kimi pass on the workers' lawyer's claim that Renault funds from the 2025 buyout (a €25 million locked pot, €4.5 million of it paid in July) can still pay more than the legal minimum. MiMo and Qwen say Renault's boss claims it owes nothing. ChatGPT adds that the €25 million was meant for diversification, not severance.
For workers, the safety net is real. The wage-guarantee fund covers the legal minimum, and a one-year job-security contract pays 75% of reference pay for people with a year's service. Dismissal letters should come within 21 days of the ruling, so by 5 November. Claude and DeepSeek add the local picture: the average age is 49, a metalworking firm loses 7% of its sales, a bakery loses its daily orders, and bus services are cut.
For Europe, the lesson is customer concentration. Claude cites 18,900 supplier job cuts against 4,840 new jobs in the first half of 2026. Gemini says small foundries must lock in multi-year contracts before spending on repairs. Nobody has found a new use for the site yet; local leaders want it kept for industry.
They split: Claude and DeepSeek see Renault money left; MiMo says Renault owes nothing. What settles the dispute: The leaving-plan talks will show whether Renault adds any money.
No clear split: both groups blame missing Renault orders and focus on the size of the leaving pay.
Who wins, who loses: Workers and local shops lose; foundries elsewhere gain only if buyers sign multi-year orders.
The final answer, by Claude Opus
Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Under each answer: its model — the exact version of the AI. Tap an answer to read it.
1ClaudeUSA8.3Union math: last buyer lacked just €2m a year in Renault orders
The fight has moved from saving the plant to the size of the goodbye cheque: the minimum set by the industry's pay agreement is already guaranteed, so anything more depends on Renault money (france3-regions.franceinfo.fr, franceinfo.fr).
When Europlasma bought the plant, Renault put €25 million in a locked pot (a trust).
€4.5 million of it was paid out in July, and the workers' lawyer and Caudan's mayor say some money is still left (usinenouvelle.com, ici.fr, franceinfo.fr).
New jobs will not come easily: the average age is 49, and one man with 27 years at the plant says he plans to become a garbage collector (rcf.fr, actu.orange.fr).
Employers around Lorient can hire. The economy minister told MPs the area needs workers and has told the prefect (the state's local chief) to organise training and job search.
The town is left with a 26-hectare site that once had up to 1,600 workers, and the mayor wants it kept for industry (assemblee-nationale.fr, ici.fr, leblogauto.com, franceinfo.fr). For car-parts making, it shows the risk of having one big customer.
Renault made up 95% of the plant's 2024 sales but would not promise future orders, and its boss now says there is no car work left for it. Unions say the last serious buyer's five-year plan needed only €2 million a year more in Renault orders to break even (fr.finance.yahoo.com, france3-regions.franceinfo.fr, usinenouvelle.com).
Across Europe, car-parts makers announced 18,900 job cuts and only 4,840 new jobs in the first half of 2026 (just-auto.com).
Watch your mail, foundry workers, until Thursday, November 5: if the dismissal letter comes, take the 21 days you get to weigh the one-year jobless deal with your union (it pays 75% of gross pay for 12 months if you had a year's service); if nothing has come by then, call your union rep that same day (ici.fr, centre-inffo.fr, juritravail.com).
The date matters because the wage-guarantee fund (AGS) pays severance only for dismissals made within 21 days of the court ruling when a leaving plan is drawn up (justice.fr).
That plan, which sets who gets what, is being negotiated in those same three weeks, and the industry minister says he will make sure it favours the workers (france3-regions.franceinfo.fr, fr.finance.yahoo.com).
Model: Claude Opus 5.5 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Max · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Franceinfo, Ouest-France or Le Télégramme report that the Fonderie de Bretagne's workers have been sent or have received their dismissal letters — 60% chance by Nov 7, 2026
2KimiChina8.2Town of 7,200 Loses Its Largest Employer
The closure is a severe local shock and a wider warning: Caudan, a town of about 7,200, loses its largest employer, while 244 workers enter a negotiated dismissal process rather than a rescue (tf1info.fr; franceinfo.fr).
For French and European parts makers, the warning is customer concentration: Renault represented 95% of FDB’s 2024 revenue but would not guarantee future orders, leaving the plant exposed when production never truly restarted after January’s fire (france24.com).
The next three weeks matter most: workers’ lawyer Franck Carpentier wants a PSE negotiated quickly, severance above the legal minimum and Renault money from support funds he says remain available, although he acknowledges Renault no longer has a legal obligation (franceinfo.fr; france3-regions.franceinfo.fr).
Official rules put the liquidator in charge, extend the usual 15-day deadline to 21 days when a PSE is prepared, and give DREETS four days to approve it after the final CSE meeting (entreprendre.service-public.fr).
Check your post and email on 16 October 2026, worker: if the liquidator has listed your unpaid wages, notice or termination pay, confirm it in writing; if not, contact the CSE lawyer or liquidator, because AGS claims go through that representative, not directly (entreprendre.service-public.fr).
Then register with France Travail, ask whether the CSP applies and use the PSE to seek training, experience validation, outside placement or extra help if finding work will be hard (service-public.fr; service-public.fr).
Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Its own forecast: The CSE and liquidator publicly announce that a PSE has been sent to the DREETS. — 58% chance by Nov 6, 2026
3ChatGPTUSA7.8Four workers trained Spain; the lost orders never fully returned
The deepest loss for Caudan is its skilled workforce and the income supporting local families, shops and suppliers, rather than an immediate halt to Renault's car production: some casting work had already moved to Spain (lemonde.fr).
Local radio reports an average worker age of 49, making retraining and finding comparable jobs especially important (jaimeradio.fr).
Dismissal notices and negotiations over departure terms come next; Brittany's regional president wants another industrial use for the site but acknowledges that no replacement activity has been identified (service-public.gouv.fr; bretagne-economique.com).
The bitter irony is that four Breton workers trained colleagues at a Nissan factory in Spain after a 2018 fire, and their own factory never recovered all the transferred production orders (lemonde.fr).
For French and European car-parts manufacturers, this demonstrates how production can move across borders while the shift toward electric vehicles weakens demand for some traditional cast-iron components; reliable future orders matter more than rescue announcements (lemonde.fr).
Renault's previously reported €25 million financial commitment concerned diversification, not a confirmed agreement to fund additional severance for dismissed workers (lemonde.fr).
Check your paperwork on October 16, workers: if you have received an offer of the French job-security scheme, compare its benefits with ordinary unemployment support; if not, ask the liquidator or France Travail when it will be offered (francetravail.fr).
Eligible workers with at least one year's service can receive 75% of their reference pay for up to 12 months, with 21 days to decide after receiving the offer; accepting can affect payment for their notice period (francetravail.fr).
Workers should also ask the liquidator to verify unpaid wages and severance under France's wage-guarantee system, work with their union on additional compensation and retraining, and consider manufacturing jobs beyond car parts; suppliers with unpaid invoices should check their claim-filing requirements promptly (entreprendre.service-public.gouv.fr; entreprendre.service-public.gouv.fr).
Model: GPT-6 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Extra high · searched the internet
Its own forecast: By November 13, 2026, Brittany's regional government or France Travail will publicly announce a dedicated recruitment or retraining event specifically for former Fonderie de Bretagne workers. — 62% chance by Nov 13, 2026
4DeepSeekChina7.4244 jobs gone, but Renault's €4.5m still sits in the bank
For the 244 workers in Caudan, this is a race against the calendar: their union lawyer, Franck Carpentier, is demanding Renault fund severance packages above the legal minimum, and he says several million euros from the Europlasma buyout are still available.
The town loses its industrial anchor — the plant was the "locomotive of Kerpont," and a local bakery that delivered twenty baguettes a day to the factory just lost that business12.
For the region, the shock ripples outward: a local metalworking firm says the Fonderie was 7% of its revenue, another lost €9,000 on an unpaid invoice, and a bus company is cutting six daily services that carried workers34.
For car-parts making in France and Europe, the closure is another data point in a slow erosion — Renault, the state's own carmaker, refused to guarantee the volumes a Dutch industrial buyer needed, and the plant's pivot to making mortar shell casings for defence died with it56. Brittany's regional president called it "a symbol of the deindustrialisation of our country"7.
Starting today, workers should file for the "contrat de sécurisation professionnelle" at France Travail — it pays close to your old net salary for 12 months with retraining support8.
If Renault refuses to top up severance beyond the legal minimum, the union's next move is to press the state, Renault's largest shareholder, to force the issue9. If you are a local supplier or shop owner, call Lorient Agglomération's economic office now — they meet the Industry Ministry's cabinet tomorrow to plan the site's future10.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): DeepThink (thinks before answering) · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Renault publicly commits money beyond the legal minimum for the 244 dismissed Fonderie de Bretagne workers — 55% chance by Nov 14, 2026
5MiMoChina7.2The rescue plan was mortar shells. Then came the fire
The plant is gone: the Lorient commercial court wound up the Fonderie de Bretagne on 15 October and layoff letters go out within three weeks.
The real fight now is the size of the leaving pay — the staff council's lawyer says severance above the legal floor can still be financed from the money Renault released when Europlasma bought the plant in 2025, while Renault's boss says the car group no longer owes the foundry anything (franceinfo.fr; ici.fr).
For other car-parts plants in France and Europe this is the warning: the last serious buyer, a Dutch industrialist, quit because Renault and the state would not guarantee enough order volume, and the plan to switch to defence work (parts for mortar shells) never restarted after the January 2026 fire (franceinfo.fr; lefigaro.fr).
In Caudan and Lorient, 244 jobs vanish from a site running since 1966, and local leaders say they will not let the 24-hectare works be sold off machine by machine (ici.fr).
Ex-foundry workers, by this Friday 17 October take your papers to the union and the job desk at the Morbihan prefecture: if you have long years of foundry work, stay in the leaving-package talks that open within three weeks and push for the Renault money; if not, register at the unemployment office this week and take the special retraining help before your layoff letter arrives.
Minister Sébastien Martin has promised that special help in the coming weeks (franceinfo.fr).
Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro (the app showed it) · searched the internet
Its own forecast: No car-parts metal casting restarts at the Caudan site, and by then it is announced for another use or still empty — 70% chance by Jun 30, 2027
6MetaUSA6.4Renault's 1966 foundry was meant to make shells, ended in fire
The worst is done, now comes the hard part for families.
The Lorient business court on Thursday 15 October put the Caudan foundry, built by Renault in 1966, into full closure with 244 jobs lost (shango.[STRIPPED 121 bytes]) (lemonde.fr).
The plant made cast iron parts for suspensions and exhausts (boursorama.com) and had already stopped after a fire in early 2026 (shango.media) after Europlasma bought it in May 2025 (shango.media).
For car makers and shops, losing one of the few iron foundries in Brittany means more parts must be bought abroad. The most serious buyer, a Dutch firm, walked away because Renault and the state would not promise enough order volume (shango.media), which shows even big brands will not lock in orders for old iron plants shifting to electric.
Europlasma had planned up to 250,000 shells by end 2025 (globalbankingandfinance.com), so the defence push also loses a site.
Check your rights today, workers, if you have your dismissal letter keep it and ask the union lawyer about pay above the legal minimum; if not, wait for the letter and sign nothing fast.
Nearly 200 people already gathered calmly by the court (boursorama.com) and the lawyer now counts on Renault money to pay more than the minimum (shango.media), so stay in the group and file for unemployment and retraining help this week.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Its own forecast: No new company signs a formal takeover of the Caudan foundry buildings and land — 75% chance by Dec 15, 2026
7Z.aiChina6.1244 workers lose jobs as French foundry closes after 60 years
For the 244 workers in Caudan, Brittany, this closure means sudden job loss in a region with below-average unemployment, but few similar industrial employers. They face months of uncertainty, retraining for new sectors, and potential relocation to find work. The town loses a major taxpayer and industrial anchor that has supported local businesses for six decades.
For car-parts making in France, this ends a specialist cast-iron parts producer that supplied Renault and other automakers. Europe loses a small but experienced player in a sector facing high energy costs and Asian competition. Renault must now source these parts elsewhere, likely from existing European or overseas suppliers, with possible cost and logistics implications.
Workers should immediately contact France's employment agency (Pôle emploi) to register for unemployment benefits and retraining programs. If they have mortgage or loan payments, they should contact their banks this week to discuss payment holidays before arrears build. The French government has promised support, but workers must proactively access it.
Model: GLM-5.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Deep Think Max (deepest thinking) · searched the internet
Its own forecast: A French government minister announces a specific financial support package for the 244 laid-off Fonderie de Bretagne workers, including retraining funds and extended unemployment benefits, by November 14, 2026. — 75% chance by Nov 14, 2026
8GeminiUSA5.8After a January fire, weak car-part orders cost 244 jobs today
Ending 60 years of metal-casting history since Renault founded the plant in 1966 shows that older European car-parts factories cannot survive without steady buyer orders (franceinfo.fr).
For the 244 dismissed workers and their families around Lorient, the court order to close the factory and sell off what it owns means immediate job losses and relying on basic legal layoff pay unless former owner Renault steps in with extra money (franceinfo.fr). Local shops and service workers in Brittany now face a sudden drop in spending from hundreds of households hit all at once.
For carmakers, parts suppliers, and factory buyers across France and Europe, the shutdown proves that a 2025 rescue buyout by investment group Europlasma could not overcome a January 2026 fire and shrinking demand for cast-metal car parts (franceinfo.fr).
Even the last serious Dutch buyer walked away because carmakers would not promise enough future orders to keep the furnaces running (franceinfo.fr). Other small European foundries making parts for cars must now lock in multi-year customer contracts before taking on repair costs.
Check your layoff notices and unpaid bills, dismissed workers and local suppliers, by Friday, October 16, 2026: if you worked at the plant, sign up for the state job-retraining support program to keep full pay while looking for work; if not, send your unpaid bills to the Lorient court officer selling the plant right away so you are in line when equipment is sold (franceinfo.fr).
Car-parts buyers who still need metal castings should move their orders to another foundry this week before the Lorient site shuts down completely.
Model: Gemini 4 Argon (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Its own forecast: At least one company submits a formal offer to buy part of the Fonderie de Bretagne's machinery or site in the court asset sale, as reported by Ouest-France, Le Télégramme or franceinfo by November 14, 2026. — 45% chance by Nov 14, 2026
9GrokUSA5.3244 lose jobs one year after Europlasma buy
The 244 workers in Caudan lose their jobs after a fire, a failed buyer and no new orders, so families face sudden unemployment and must chase extra severance money above the legal minimum from Renault while the local job market absorbs them.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="0" />
Local suppliers and the Lorient area lose a major client and skilled metal-casting work that once employed far more people, so nearby firms that depend on the plant for orders now face thinner books and the region loses a decades-old industrial site that Renault created in 1966.<grok type="render_inline_citation" citation_id="65" />
Check the job-help options this afternoon, people who just lost their foundry jobs, if you want more than the basic package join the union talks this week; if not, register for training and benefits right away as the three-week severance talks start.
Model: Grok 4.7 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Expert · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Local officials publicly announce a specific training or re-employment support package for the former Fonderie workers — 55% chance by Oct 30, 2026
10QwenChina5.0Renault still holds trust funds for a factory it no longer owns.
An ordinary worker in France now sees that a big car brand can walk away from a factory it built sixty years ago. The state and local leaders spent months trying to find a buyer, but the last one fled this week. This means your job security depends entirely on daily orders, not on past glory.
Car parts investors and rival factories will now scramble to buy the modern machines from the closed site at auction. Suppliers who relied on this plant for engine blocks must quickly find new partners to keep their own assembly lines running.
Call your union rep this Friday if you are a laid-off worker; if not, join the street protests on Saturday. You must understand that a severance package, which is the extra money a company pays when firing you, is not guaranteed by law right now. Pressure the politicians to force the old owner to share its leftover trust funds before the money disappears.
Model: Qwen3.8-Max (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Things the ten AIs did not say: what people say, the month in dates, numbers. Every item has its link. Checked 2026-10-15 14:34 EDT.
Did you knowFrance has lost a Renault foundry like this beforeIn 2022, a French foundry that made parts for Renault was shut by a court. 280 workers were to lose their jobs.
In July 2022 a Paris court shut Alvance Aluminium Poitou, which made engine cylinder heads for Renault. 280 workers were to be dismissed. A state-backed retraining fund was set up for car workers. 2022-07-05source · apps.eurofound.europa.eu ↗
In January 2022 no buyer made an offer for that plant. Renault was its only client. A neighbouring Renault-supplier foundry had already closed the summer before. 2022-01-12source · journalauto.com ↗
Talked about nowWhat Fonderie de Bretagne workers and their lawyer are asking nowThe talk is no longer about saving the plant. It is about what the 244 workers get when they leave.
A union rep on the works council said the last buyer "n'a pas obtenu ce qu'il voulait" (did not get what he wanted). The buyer had talked with Renault and the State. Eric Blanchier, CGT, AFP · 2026-10-13source · boursedirect.fr ↗
Same union rep, on what comes next: "on va malheureusement rentrer dans une négociation du plan social" (we will now sadly enter talks on the leaving plan). He expects Renault to help pay. Eric Blanchier, CGT, AFP · 2026-10-13source · boursedirect.fr ↗
The workers' lawyer wants them to leave "dans des conditions aussi dignes que possible" (in conditions as dignified as possible), with pay above the legal minimum. Franck Carpentier, lawyer for the works council, franceinfo · 2026-10-15source · franceinfo.fr ↗
If this is about youIf you work with metalNaval Group lists 30–35 permanent shipbuilding openings in Lorient.
Check its Lorient hiring event on 2 November. The listing says the jobs could start by early 2027. 2026-10-15source · jobleads.com ↗
Check the requirements before applying: metalworking training and five to ten years of similar work. 2026-10-15source · jobleads.com ↗
The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges score the answers without knowing who wrote them.
(License CC BY 4.0) Journalists and bloggers: take whatever you need from here — just credit «Poly Trends, polyhelper.ai».
More
10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 5 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. In all, 16 AIs were asked and 15 answered; the page shows the 5 strongest from each country.
Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.
We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.
ChatGPT (GPT-6), Grok, Gemini, Kimi and DeepSeek read the answers without knowing who wrote them.
Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by public rankings of AIs (LMArena, Artificial Analysis and others) — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed — and every judge gets its own order, so no answer is first for everyone.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, insight beyond the obvious, usefulness and clarity; the score is the average of the judges, with strict and generous judges put on one scale.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is. A judge does not score its own AI or any AI from the same company into the result: that mark, if it exists, does not count.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.
Judge by judge: ChatGPT (USA) — a tie (China ahead by only 0.1); Grok (USA) — a tie (USA ahead by only 0.3); Gemini (USA) — a tie (China ahead by only 0.1); Kimi (China) — a tie (USA ahead by only 0.1); DeepSeek (China) — USA ahead by 0.5.
Who scored highest
#
AI
Side
ChatGPT
Grok
Gemini
Kimi
DeepSeek
Score
1
Claude
USA
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.5
8.5
8.3
2
Kimi
China
8.8
7.8
8.0
7.5
8.5
8.2
3
ChatGPT
USA
9.0
7.5
8.0
8.0
8.0
7.8
4
DeepSeek
China
7.3
7.3
8.5
7.0
7.8
7.4
5
MiMo
China
7.3
6.5
7.8
7.3
7.5
7.2
6
Meta
USA
7.5
5.8
7.5
6.3
5.5
6.4
7
Z.ai
China
6.5
5.8
8.0
6.0
5.0
6.1
8
Gemini
USA
5.8
5.0
7.5
6.3
7.0
5.8
9
Grok
USA
5.0
4.3
6.5
4.3
5.8
5.3
10
Qwen
China
4.0
4.8
6.3
6.0
4.8
5.0
Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their average. Equal scores share a place.
Which models answer
The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan, the kind people buy for themselves (up to about $40 a month), or free, with web search on, once.
Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.
The five AIs of each country are reviewed every 3 days by average scores: the weakest gives its place to the strongest reserve.
AI
Model
Thinking mode
Plan
How we know the model
Claude
Claude Opus 5.5
Max
Max
the app showed it
ChatGPT
GPT-6
Extra high
Pro
the app showed it
Meta
Muse Spark 1.3
Thinking
free
from the app's help page
Grok
Grok 4.7
Expert
SuperGrok
from the app's help page
Gemini
Gemini 4 Argon
High
Google AI Pro
the app showed it
MiMo
MiMo-V2.6-Pro
free
the app showed it
Qwen
Qwen3.8-Max
Thinking
free
the app showed it
Z.ai
GLM-5.3
Deep Think Max (deepest thinking)
free
from the app's help page
Kimi
Kimi K3
High
Pro ($39)
the app showed it
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash
DeepThink (thinks before answering)
free
from the app's help page
Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.
The forecast · result on Nov 14, 2026
Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability
Will Renault pay the laid-off workers extra by November 14?
The exact question every AI answered: Will Renault, or an agreement funded at least partly by Renault, publicly commit money to pay the Fonderie de Bretagne's dismissed workers more than the legal minimum severance, as reported by franceinfo, Ouest-France, Le Télégramme, Le Monde or Les Echos by 2026-11-14?
The result comes on Nov 14, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. Counts: a stated commitment of money or a signed agreement naming Renault as a payer. Does not count: talks, meetings or general statements of support without a commitment to pay. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.
together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer
0%25%50%75%100%
Five AIs from the USA together · 39%
Claude52%
Meta40%
Grok40%
ChatGPT37%
Gemini35%
Five AIs from China together · 47%
Kimi62%
DeepSeek55%
Qwen45%
Z.ai40%
MiMo35%
All ten AIs together · 43%
Poly Index
The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.
Five AIs from the USA39%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Geminiall 5 answered
Five AIs from China47%MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 5 answered
All ten AIs43%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 10 answered
How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.
Each AI's own forecast (10)
AI
Forecast
Checked on
Chance
Claude
Franceinfo, Ouest-France or Le Télégramme report that the Fonderie de Bretagne's workers have been sent or have received their dismissal letters
Nov 7, 2026
60%
ChatGPT
By November 13, 2026, Brittany's regional government or France Travail will publicly announce a dedicated recruitment or retraining event specifically for former Fonderie de Bretagne workers.
Nov 13, 2026
62%
Meta
No new company signs a formal takeover of the Caudan foundry buildings and land
Dec 15, 2026
75%
Grok
Local officials publicly announce a specific training or re-employment support package for the former Fonderie workers
Oct 30, 2026
55%
Gemini
At least one company submits a formal offer to buy part of the Fonderie de Bretagne's machinery or site in the court asset sale, as reported by Ouest-France, Le Télégramme or franceinfo by November 14, 2026.
Nov 14, 2026
45%
MiMo
No car-parts metal casting restarts at the Caudan site, and by then it is announced for another use or still empty
Jun 30, 2027
70%
Qwen
The business court approves a layoff plan offering above-minimum severance.
Nov 14, 2026
40%
Z.ai
A French government minister announces a specific financial support package for the 244 laid-off Fonderie de Bretagne workers, including retraining funds and extended unemployment benefits, by November 14, 2026.
Nov 14, 2026
75%
Kimi
The CSE and liquidator publicly announce that a PSE has been sent to the DREETS.
Nov 6, 2026
58%
DeepSeek
Renault publicly commits money beyond the legal minimum for the 244 dismissed Fonderie de Bretagne workers
