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Oct 15, 2026New trend every hour

Trend of the day · SportSport

A young Ferrari-trained driver is set to take a Formula 1 seat for 2027

A young Ferrari-trained driver is set to take a Formula 1 seat for 2027

Haas picked a rookie on test-day speed, not titles — even over the reigning Formula 2 champion.

USA7.1:China6.0

average of its top 5 AIs · today's answers, scored out of 10 by other AIs acting as judges — not who will guess the future← Previous trend: Eagles star quarterback sidelined by a blood clot in his leg

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What does this move mean for Formula 1 fans around the world, for young drivers hoping to reach the sport, and for teams that train their own drivers? What happens next, and what should people who follow or work in racing watch for (source)?

In plain words: Formula 1 — the top world car racing championship; Haas — an American-owned Formula 1 racing team; Ferrari — the Italian sports car and racing company; Esteban Ocon — French Formula 1 driver leaving Haas; Rafael Camara — young Brazilian driver trained by Ferrari; The Athletic — a sports news site owned by the New York Times

Haas picked a rookie on test-day speed, not titles — even over the reigning Formula 2 champion.

What to do

A rookie just beat the reigning Formula 2 champion for an F1 seat in a private test, so every test lap now counts.

Who should do what

F1 fans: Watch Haas announcements during the US Grand Prix, October 23–25, to see whether Bearman is confirmed beside Camara.
Young drivers and parents: Ask your team how to get time in a faster car; by early December, study the Ferrari academy path that just put two drivers on the F1 grid.
People working in racing: Keep plans for Qatar (November 27–29) and Abu Dhabi (December 4–6) flexible until mid-November; F1 could still switch the finale to Imola.

What not to do: Don't assume a Friday practice run for Camara or a deal for Bearman before Haas says so.

The seat was won in a test, not on a trophy shelf. Haas tried four drivers in old F1 cars in Portugal, and the quickest got the job. Titles opened the door; the stopwatch decided.

Most other 2027 seats are already taken. Only Haas's second car and two seats at Racing Bulls are unconfirmed, so the window for young drivers is narrow.

Check Haas's website or social pages before October 23. If Oliver Bearman's new deal is posted, the 2027 pair is set; if not, treat it as unfinished until the US Grand Prix weekend ends on October 25.

This is what most of the 10 AIs advise. Each AI explains it in its own words below.

What the world's 10 leading AIs think

They agree: 7 of 10: a private test, not titles, won the seat.
They split: Qwen and DeepSeek see academy ties winning; Gemini and ChatGPT see speed.
Not obvious: Two Ferrari juniors in equal cars give Ferrari a free test for Hamilton's seat.
What to watch: If Haas confirms Bearman by October 25, the all-Ferrari-junior pairing holds.
Only one AI: Only Claude: the Middle East finale could still move to Imola by mid-November.

Read in full

Most of the ten agree on what won the seat. Haas ran four drivers in old F1 cars in Portugal in August, and Rafael Camara was the quickest. Boss Ayao Komatsu said so plainly. Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Kimi, Z.ai and Meta all lean on that test, not on his junior titles alone.

They split on how much Ferrari's backing mattered. Qwen and DeepSeek read the move as proof that a big carmaker's youth school is the safest road to F1. Gemini and ChatGPT point to the details that cut against that: the reigning Formula 2 champion, Leonardo Fornaroli, lost out, and Komatsu flew to Japan to explain to Toyota why its driver did not get the seat. Both readings can hold, because Camara had the ties and also won the test.

The sharper find comes from putting answers side by side. If Oliver Bearman stays, Haas will field two 21-year-old Ferrari juniors in identical cars. Kimi and Gemini note this gives Ferrari a clean comparison for the day Lewis Hamilton leaves. Claude adds that almost every other 2027 seat is taken, so the door for outsiders is nearly shut.

Two things are still open. Bearman's extension has not been announced, and Komatsu calls it a matter of timing. The Formula 2 title fight, which Camara leads 207 points to 200, could also shift if the Qatar and Abu Dhabi races move. Claims that he skipped Formula 2, or that he already has a Friday practice slot in São Paulo, were not supported.

They split: Qwen and DeepSeek see academy ties winning; Gemini and ChatGPT see speed.
What settles the dispute: Qatar and Abu Dhabi race results will show whether the pick was right.

AIs from both countries mostly agree; the Chinese answers lean harder on academy ties, the American ones on test speed.

What is confirmed and what is not

Confirmed by a source Haas officially signed Camara for 2027 on October 15.
Confirmed by a source Camara leads Formula 2 by 207 points to 200 with two rounds left.
The AIs' conclusion Haas and Ferrari are becoming a shortcut for academy drivers.

The AIs read 39 sources

Ask any AI yourself

I'm a young driver. Help me plan which tests, results and contacts could win me a seat like Camara's.

Copy it and paste it into a chat with any AI

Ask several AIs at once — in our app

Who wins, who loses: Fast test drivers and Ferrari juniors gain; veterans like Ocon and rival academies lose.

The final answer, by Claude Opus

Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Under each answer: its model — the exact version of the AI. Tap an answer to read it.

1GeminiUSA8.5Blocked from number 5, Camara chose 50 for his 5/5/2005 birthday
Haas and Ferrari officially confirmed the multi-year deal on October 15, 2026, turning the American squad into a full proving ground for Ferrari-trained youth and giving Brazil two full-time Formula 1 drivers for the first time since 2016 alongside Audi driver Gabriel Bortoleto (haasf1team.com, ferrari.com, grandepremio.com).
Because Bortoleto already uses car number 5, the 21-year-old Camara picked number 50 to match his May 5, 2005 birthday (5/5/2005) and enters 2027 as the only first-year rookie on the starting grid so far (express.co.uk, crash.net).
With 21-year-old fellow Ferrari trainee Oliver Bearman expected to keep the other Haas car once final contract details are signed, fans will watch two young teammates race head-to-head to succeed Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari one day (crash.net, racer.com).
For young drivers and the team academies that train them, Haas boss Ayao Komatsu showed that raw speed and car feel in private older-car tests outweigh past trophies after picking Camara over three rivals from an August evaluation at Portimao, Portugal: 2025 Formula 2 (the main second-tier feeder series) champion Leonardo Fornaroli of McLaren and reserve drivers Jack Doohan and Ryo Hirakawa (aa.com.tr, motorsport.com).
Camara won the regional European championship in 2024 and the third-tier Formula 3 title in 2025, and he now leads Formula 2 by seven points over Red Bull trainee Nikola Tsolov with two rounds left, proving that Ferrari's driver school can promote top graduates through partner teams that buy its engines while McLaren and Toyota trainees wait (formula1.com, racer.com).
Only three unconfirmed seats now remain for the 2027 season—Bearman's Haas car and two seats at Red Bull's sister team Racing Bulls, currently held by Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad—pushing passed-over contenders like Doohan to negotiate reserve roles for 2027 (motorsport.com, infobae.com, express.co.uk).
Watch, as racing fans, Haas's home race at the United States Grand Prix in Austin from October 23 to October 25, 2026: if Haas formally announces Oliver Bearman's contract extension during that weekend, shift your attention to the last two open 2027 seats at Racing Bulls; if not, track whether contract paperwork delays Bearman's confirmation until the early November races in Mexico and Brazil (haasf1team.com, express.co.uk).
Follow the final two Formula 2 weekends in Lusail, Qatar from November 27 to November 29, 2026 and in Abu Dhabi from December 4 to December 6, 2026, where young drivers and scouts will see whether Camara protects his seven-point lead to become the first driver to win the regional European, Formula 3, and Formula 2 titles in three straight years (coffeecornermotorsport.com, infobae.com).
Model: Gemini 4 Argon (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Haas officially announces on its website or social accounts that Oliver Bearman will drive alongside Rafael Camara for the 2027 Formula 1 season by the end of the United States Grand Prix on October 25, 2026. — 65% chance by Oct 25, 2026
2ClaudeUSA8.4Race winner Ocon: 7 points this year; his 21-year-old teammate: 23
It's no longer just a report: Haas made it official on October 15 (formula1.com) with a statement on its own website (haasf1team.com), and so far he is the only driver change on next year's grid (skysports.com).
Brazil gets two drivers at once for the first time since 2016, and he is its 34th F1 driver and the first from the country's Northeast (lance.com.br).
The seat opened because Esteban Ocon, a past race winner, has 7 points this year against 23 for his 21-year-old teammate Oliver Bearman (formula1.com).
For young drivers the lesson is blunt: Haas also tried out Leonardo Fornaroli, the reigning champion of Formula 2 (planetf1.com), the last step below F1 (riotimesonline.com), yet boss Ayao Komatsu explained the pick in one line: 'He was the quickest, very simple answer' (devdiscourse.com).
For teams that raise their own drivers, the road runs through a partner team: Haas uses Ferrari engines (devdiscourse.com), will likely field two Ferrari juniors if Bearman stays (planetf1.com), and Ferrari's young-driver school says the move completes his time with it (sportmediaset.mediaset.it).
Other doors are nearly shut: Racing Bulls is the only team yet to name either driver, and its current pair is favoured to stay (skysports.com).
Check Haas's website and social pages before the US Grand Prix on October 23–25, fans: if Bearman's new deal is posted, the 2027 pair is set; if not, treat it as unfinished, since Komatsu calls it 'a matter of timing' (skysports.com, haasf1team.com).
Then follow the Formula 2 finale: Camara leads Nikola Tsolov 207 points to 200, with rounds in Qatar on November 27–29 and Abu Dhabi on December 4–6 (riotimesonline.com), held on F1's own weekends there (sportmediaset.mediaset.it).
If you work in racing, keep those trips flexible: F1 still plans both Middle East races, but sources say it could switch to Imola as late as mid-November (tsn.ca).
Model: Claude Opus 5.5 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Max · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Haas posts an official statement (haasf1team.com or its official social accounts) confirming Oliver Bearman as a Haas race driver for 2027, by the end of the US Grand Prix weekend — 45% chance by Oct 25, 2026
3ChatGPTUSA8.3Two titles opened the door; one wet test sealed the deal
This is a vote for fast-learning youth over veteran experience, and the uncertainty is already over: Haas has published its official multi-year confirmation (haasf1team.com). Ferrari also confirmed the move through its official social account on October 15 (x.com).
For fans worldwide, Brazil is set to have two Formula 1 drivers for the first time since 2016, and Câmara plans to use number 50 because fellow Brazilian Gabriel Bortoleto already races with his preferred number 5 (reuters.com).
For aspiring drivers and their parents, the lesson is that championships attract attention, but performance in a real Formula 1 car can decide who gets hired: despite Câmara's two earlier titles, Haas boss Ayao Komatsu said he probably would not have selected him without an impressive test in difficult, wet and windy conditions (uol.com.br).
For teams that develop young drivers, this also shows that relationships do not guarantee seats: Toyota wanted an opportunity for its own driver, but Komatsu travelled to Japan to explain why he preferred the Ferrari-trained Brazilian (uol.com.br).
Haas could now field two Ferrari academy graduates, although Oliver Bearman's continuation has not yet received its own formal confirmation (reuters.com).
Check on October 23, fans: if Haas names Câmara for a practice session, watch how quickly he adapts; if not, follow Bearman's performance as the likely experienced leader of the future pairing (haasf1team.com; reuters.com).
Watch next for a formal Bearman announcement, possible Câmara practice appearances at upcoming races, and whether Haas can turn its investment in young talent into stronger race results (uol.com.br).
Model: GPT-6 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Extra high · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Haas will officially confirm Oliver Bearman as one of its race drivers for the 2027 season on its website or official social accounts. — 74% chance by Nov 14, 2026
4KimiChina8.0Brazil gets two F1 drivers in 2027, first time since 2016
The guessing is already over: within hours of the first reports, Haas confirmed the deal itself on Thursday, October 15, on its own website, with quotes from team boss Ayao Komatsu and owner Gene Haas (haasf1team.com).
For fans everywhere the real meaning is a changing of the guard: a 21-year-old who leads Formula 2, the series one step below F1, takes the seat of a grand prix winner, and Brazil will have two drivers on the grid for the first time since 2016 (grandepremio.com). Haas will also field two 21-year-olds from Ferrari's young-driver school, something the American team has never done (espn.co.uk).
For young drivers hoping to reach F1, the lesson is how the seat was won: Haas ran Câmara, Jack Doohan, Leonardo Fornaroli and Ryo Hirakawa in test days with old F1 cars and picked on the speed shown there, so every test lap is now an audition (the-race.com).
For teams that train their own drivers, Ferrari now gets both its academy graduates in identical cars, a straight comparison for a future Ferrari seat once Lewis Hamilton's contract runs out (espn.co.uk). And Esteban Ocon, a race winner with ten years in F1, has no seat at all and says he will take a reserve role rather than leave the paddock (crash.net).
Mark two dates, fans: Austin on October 25, Haas's home race where Ocon and Bearman still drive, and the São Paulo weekend in early November, where Câmara is set to take part in a Friday practice session in front of his home crowd (espn.co.uk).
If Câmara also wins the Formula 2 title in Qatar and Abu Dhabi — he leads by seven points with two rounds left (formula1.com) — treat him as a future star and expect Ferrari to say so; if he loses it, expect talk that Haas moved too early on a raw talent.
Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Haas officially confirms Oliver Bearman as its second 2027 race driver alongside Câmara, on its website or social accounts — 72% chance by Nov 14, 2026
5DeepSeekChina6.7Haas picks F2 leader over race winner Ocon
The move means Haas is betting on raw speed and Ferrari academy ties over proven race experience, which could set a new template for how F1 teams fill seats. For ordinary fans, the 2027 season will feature at least one rookie who has never raced in F1, so expect more incidents and a steeper learning curve, especially at tracks like Monaco (source: formula1.com).
Brazilian fans now have a second driver to follow alongside Gabriel Bortoleto (source: agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br).
For young drivers, this shows that winning junior titles and impressing in private tests can leapfrog drivers with race wins, as Camara beat out F2 champion Leonardo Fornaroli and reserve driver Jack Doohan (source: bbc.com).
Teams that run academies, like Ferrari, benefit because their juniors get seats at customer teams like Haas, which uses Ferrari engines (source: motorsport.com).
Follow Haas's next move, fans, on October 23-25 at the United States Grand Prix; if Bearman is confirmed as Camara's teammate, expect a young lineup; if not, watch for more silly season moves (source: skysports.com).
If you are a young driver, focus on F2 and Ferrari's academy; if not, watch the remaining F2 rounds to see if Camara clinches the title (source: formula1.com).
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): DeepThink (thinks before answering) · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Haas will officially confirm Oliver Bearman as Camara's 2027 teammate on its website. — 80% chance by Nov 14, 2026

6MetaUSA6.621-year-old leads F2 by 7 points, gets multi-year Haas deal
Haas is no longer a refuge for veterans, it is now Ferrari's junior team. A 21-year-old Brazilian who leads the Formula 2 standings and signed a multi-year deal takes the seat of 30-year-old Frenchman Esteban Ocon who will leave at the end of 2026 after two seasons. For you watching on Sunday, you will see two 21-year-olds — Camara and fellow youngster Oliver Bearman — learning, not fighting for wins right away.
For kids in karts and parents paying bills, the template is now clear: win the 2024 Formula Regional European Championship title and the 2025 Formula 3 crown, then lead Formula 2 by seven points with two races remaining.
For teams that train drivers, Ferrari putting its juniors who joined the Driver Academy in 2022 into Haas, its longtime engine supplier, after a private test in August at Portimao in Portugal and beating reserves Ryo Hirakawa and Jack Doohan, proves the junior pipeline works.
Watch fans tonight October 15 after the 14:01 UTC announcement if you cheer Brazil do follow the final two F2 rounds in Qatar and Abu Dhabi where Camara leads Nikola Tsolov by seven points; if not, do watch Haas confirm Bearman as the youngest pair on the grid. The announcement comes ahead of Haas home race at the United States Grand Prix next week, so expect practice buzz now.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Haas will field Rafael Camara in an official Formula 1 Free Practice 1 session before the end of the 2026 season — 70% chance by Dec 1, 2026
7Z.aiChina6.4Haas bets on rookie Camara after test laps 'were special'
For fans, Camara's debut means a new, exciting rookie and a stronger Brazilian presence in F1. Teams that develop drivers get proof that their junior programs and testing work can shape the grid. Young drivers see that standout test performances, not just junior titles, can fast-track them to F1.
For teams, this move validates investing in private tests and junior academies. Ferrari's support likely helped Camara secure the seat, showing other teams the value of partner programs. For young racers, it highlights that impressing in F1 machinery, even in a test, matters as much as winning in F2.
Watch for Haas's next steps with Ollie Bearman's contract and Camara's F2 finish. Fans should follow Camara's performance in the remaining F2 races. If you're a young driver, seek opportunities to test F1 cars. If you're a team boss, consider similar test programs to evaluate talent.
Model: GLM-5.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Deep Think Max (deepest thinking) · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Rafael Camara will score at least one World Championship point in his first F1 season (2027). — 75% chance by Dec 1, 2027
8QwenChina4.7Haas will now run two Ferrari academy drivers on its starting grid.
For racing fans, the 2027 starting grid is filling up with a 21-year-old Brazilian rookie taking over from Esteban Ocon. This proves that leading the lower league points race still rewards drivers with a top-level seat.
For parents of young athletes, this deal shows that joining a major car company's youth training program is now the safest path to a big career. Independent talents without a corporate backer will find fewer open doors at the highest level.
Check, racing fans, the team websites this Thursday afternoon; if you follow contracts, look for his salary details, but if not, just wait for his first testing videos. Oliver Bearman will be his new teammate next season.
Model: Qwen3.8-Max (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Sources
Its own forecast: Haas announces a new major sponsor alongside Camara's official debut press release. — 40% chance by Nov 30, 2026
9WenxinChina4.2Ferrari junior moves directly to Haas
For regular Formula 1 fans around the world, this is not just another driver swap. It gives them a new underdog story to follow next season, one that did not look certain even 48 hours ago. It also changes the path for every teen driver working their way up the racing ladder.
Teams that run their own young driver programs now have a much clearer new benchmark. They will see that a top junior can jump straight to a race seat without the usual extra year in lower series, if the right opening lines up. That will make junior team owners and their sponsors rethink how they plan their 2027 and 2028 promotion timelines.
Fans, open your team social feeds this week; if you want to catch the official announcement first, follow Haas and Ferrari accounts daily. If you do not care about the exact announcement date, you can wait for the first on-track test footage that will appear in mid-November.
Model: ERNIE (the app doesn't say) · mode (how long it thinks): Fast · searched the internet
Sources
1. nytimes.com
Its own forecast: Rafael Camara will appear in a Haas F1 team official social media post posing with the team cap and car livery — 72% chance by Nov 10, 2026
10Nemotron + MercuryUSA3.7Cannot verify future-dated F1 report
I cannot browse the web or verify stories dated October 2026, which is in the future relative to my knowledge. The URL you provided follows a plausible New York Times Athletic pattern, but I cannot confirm it exists or read its contents. Without current sources, I cannot assess what this move means for fans, young drivers, or teams, nor can I provide checkable forecasts or probabilities.
If you have access to the article, you can share key details — names, dates, direct quotes — and I can help analyze the implications using general F1 knowledge. Otherwise, you would need to check the URL directly or search reputable motorsport outlets (BBC Sport, Sky Sports, ESPN, Autosport, Reuters, The Guardian) for confirmation.
Check the provided NYT Athletic link now; if it loads, note the byline, timestamp, and any quoted sources. Then search 'Camara Haas' on the six outlets listed above for October 17–19 coverage. If Haas or Ferrari post official statements on their websites or verified social accounts, those are the only confirmations that count.
Model: Nemotron 3 Ultra (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · Mercury's search failed — Nemotron 3 Ultra wrote it without web search
Sources
1. nytimes.com
Its own forecast: I cannot make a checkable forecast without verified current sources — 0% chance by Nov 14, 2026

Rafa's First Day With The Team 🇧🇷 | Behind the Scenes Of The Announcement

TGR Haas F1 Team · YouTube

Rankings

Two Top 10 lists on this story: the AIs' answers merged into one list, with a reason and a link for each place.

F1 Drivers From Brazil: Top 10 Ranked (2026)

Ayrton Senna1
Nelson Piquet2
Emerson Fittipaldi3
Felipe Massa4
Rubens Barrichello5

More

Brazil has 8 world titles and 101 Grand Prix wins, yet no Brazilian has won a race since Rubens Barrichello at Monza in 2009, and in 2027 it is set to field two full-time drivers for the first time since 2016.

1
Ayrton Senna41 wins from 161 starts, 65 poles and 3 titles. He won 6 races in Lotus cars that finished third among constructors, before McLaren gave him a title-winning car.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
2
Nelson Piquet3 titles with two teams. The 1981 and 1983 titles came in Brabhams that finished 2nd and 3rd among constructors, and in 1987 he beat Mansell, who won more races in the same Williams.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
3
Emerson FittipaldiBrazil's first champion, in 1972 at 25, then champion again in 1974. He spent his peak years in his own Copersucar team, whose best result was second at the 1978 Brazilian GP.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
4
Felipe MassaLost the 2008 title to Hamilton by one point, 97 to 98, in a Ferrari he was leading. Sources disagree on his qualifying record against Räikkönen: 26–9 or 28–19.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
5
Rubens Barrichello322 starts and 68 podiums, the most of any Brazilian. He was runner-up in 2002 and 2004 as Schumacher's number two, and his 2009 Monza win is Brazil's most recent.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
6
Carlos PaceWon the 1975 Brazilian GP in a Brabham that finished second among constructors that year. He died in a 1977 plane crash after 72 starts, and Interlagos now bears his name.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
7
Roberto MorenoSpent years in hopeless EuroBrun and Coloni cars, then finished second at Suzuka in 1990 in his first race for Benetton, behind teammate Piquet in a one-two.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
8
Christian Fittipaldi12 points from Minardi and Footwork cars near the back of the grid, with three fourth places as his best. One AI's claim that he scored a Minardi podium is wrong.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
9
Felipe NasrFinished 5th on debut in Australia in 2015, and his 9th place in the rain at Interlagos in 2016 scored the only points the slowest car on the grid got all year.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
10
Gabriel BortoletoThe 2024 F2 champion and Brazil's only driver on the 2026 grid, now at Audi. He is too early in his career to judge against cars and teammates, and has no podium yet.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗

Worth knowing

Brazil's most recent win is Barrichello's at Monza in 2009. One AI said it was Massa's 2008 Brazilian GP, but Barrichello won twice more after that, in 2009.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
Senna's 41 wins are more than Piquet's 23 and Fittipaldi's 14 put together.
source · f1-fansite.com ↗
Câmara's Haas deal for 2027 gives Brazil two full-time drivers for the first time since Massa and Nasr in 2016. The Athletic broke the news on 15 October 2026, and one AI still called it unconfirmed.
source · grandepremio.com ↗
Brazil had no driver on the grid between Massa's retirement after 2017 and Bortoleto's debut in 2025. One AI counted that gap as eight seasons and another as 2017–2018 only.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
Sources count the totals differently: Barrichello's starts and the nation's points (3,450 or 3,452) vary between STATS F1, F1-Fansite and formula1points.com.
source · formula1points.com ↗

Details: how each AI answered

🇺🇸 Claude

1
Ayrton Senna41 wins from 161 starts and three titles, and the only Brazilian whose win rate is among the best in F1 history.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
2
Nelson PiquetThree titles, and he won the 1987 crown in a Williams while his teammate Mansell won more races.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
3
Emerson FittipaldiHe opened Brazil's title account in 1972, the first Brazilian world champion, and took a second title in 1974 with McLaren.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
4
Felipe MassaHe lost the 2008 title by one point, 97 to 98, and may have lost it by more because of Crashgate, a case he took to the High Court.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
5
Rubens BarrichelloHe started more Grands Prix than any other Brazilian (322 per one table) and won 11 of them, mostly as Schumacher's number two. His last win in 2009 is still Brazil's most recent.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
6
Carlos PaceHe won once, the 1975 Brazilian GP at Interlagos, in a Brabham.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
7
Roberto MorenoHe finished second in the 1990 Japanese GP, a Benetton one-two behind Piquet, with a long career in weak cars.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
8
Christian FittipaldiEmerson's nephew scored a podium in a Minardi, a team near the back of the grid.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
9
Felipe NasrHis Sauber finished ninth in the 2015 constructors' standings, and Nasr was fifth in his debut race in Australia that year.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
10
Bruno SennaAyrton's nephew, who raced at Williams in 2012 and was dropped after one season there.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗

Worth knowing

Brazil has 101 wins and 8 titles, but none of those wins has come since Barrichello's at Monza in 2009.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
Gabriel Bortoleto is the only Brazilian on the 2026 grid, so Camara's Haas seat for 2027 would double the Brazilian presence.
source · skysports.com ↗
Camara won back-to-back Formula Regional Europe and F3 titles before F2. Haas has signed him on a multi-year deal.
source · the-race.com ↗
Massa lost the 2008 title by one point (97 to 98). He retired from the first two races of that season.
source · wheels24.co.za ↗

🇺🇸 Gemini

1
Ayrton SennaConverted 65 poles into 3 world titles and 41 victories, famously taking 6 wins in 1985–1987 Lotus cars against dominant Williams-Hondas before outqualifying Alain Prost 28–4 at McLaren.
source · formula1.com ↗
2
Nelson PiquetWon 3 world championships across two different engine eras—including F1's first turbo title in 1983—while lifting Brabham above faster rivals and outwitting Nigel Mansell at Williams.
source · formula1.com ↗
3
Emerson FittipaldiBecame F1's then-youngest world champion at age 25 with Lotus and added a second crown with McLaren, before sacrificing his peak years to spearhead Brazil's domestic Copersucar constructor project.
source · formula1.com ↗
4
Felipe MassaCarried post-Senna Brazil as a genuine team leader, outqualifying Kimi Räikkönen 26–9 across 2007–2008 and coming within 1 single point of the 2008 World Championship at Interlagos.
source · statsf1.com ↗
5
Rubens BarrichelloScored Jordan's and Stewart's breakthrough podiums in midfield machinery, but spent 5 dominant Ferrari seasons locked into a contractually enforced number-two role behind Michael Schumacher.
source · statsf1.com ↗
6
Carlos PaceWon the 1975 Brazilian Grand Prix on home soil and pushed Brabham to 2nd in the Constructors' Championship before his tragic death in a 1977 plane crash led Interlagos to bear his name.
7
Roberto MorenoSurviving 75 race weekends in hopeless EuroBrun and Coloni machinery, F1's master substitute took an emotional 2nd place behind Piquet at Suzuka 1990 the moment he was handed a competitive Benetton.
source · statsf1.com ↗
8
Felipe NasrFinished 5th on debut in Melbourne and delivered a masterclass 9th place in the rain at Interlagos 2016 in the grid's slowest car, single-handedly securing $40 million in prize money that saved Sauber.
source · statsf1.com ↗
9
Pedro DinizOvercame the pay-driver stigma across 98 starts, outscoring reigning world champion teammate Damon Hill in mutual finishes at Arrows in 1997 and matching Jean Alesi's points tally at Sauber in 1999.
source · statsf1.com ↗
10
Christian FittipaldiExtracted 12 championship points out of tail-end Minardi and Footwork cars, surviving an infamous airborne 360-degree backflip over teammate Martini across the finish line at Monza 1993.
source · statsf1.com ↗

Worth knowing

Between Felipe Massa's retirement in 2017 and Gabriel Bortoleto's F1 arrival, Brazil suffered an unprecedented multi-year drought without a permanent driver on the grid, placing extraordinary historical pressure on Bortoleto and 2027 Haas-bound rookie Rafael Câmara.
source · statsf1.com ↗
Evaluating Massa ahead of Barrichello reverses pure points tables: while Barrichello collected 68 podiums across 322 starts as a faithful #2 during Ferrari's 2000–2004 dominance, Massa was Ferrari's undisputed title contender in 2008, taking 6 wins and beating Kimi Räikkönen on pace.
source · statsf1.com ↗

🇺🇸 Nemotron

1
Ayrton Senna3 titles, 41 wins, 65 poles — the benchmark every Brazilian driver is measured against.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
2
Nelson Piquet3 titles in 3 different cars (Brabham, Williams, Benetton) — mastered the turbo and active-suspension eras.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
3
Emerson Fittipaldi2 titles (1972, 1974) — youngest champion for 33 years, won in Lotus and McLaren, then built own team.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
4
Rubens Barrichello11 wins, 68 podiums — most experienced Brazilian (322 starts), carried Ferrari as clear #2 for 6 years.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
5
Felipe MassaLost 2008 title by 1 point on last corner of last lap — 11 wins, 16 poles, Ferrari’s last race winner until 2022.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
6
Carlos PaceOnly Brazilian to win at home (Interlagos 1975) — died at 32, career cut short in competitive Brabham.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
7
José Carlos PaceSame as Carlos Pace — duplicate entry removed; see rank 6.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
8
Tony KanaanNever raced in F1 — IndyCar champion, Indianapolis 500 winner; included in some lists by mistake.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
9
Pietro FittipaldiGrandson of Emerson, 2 starts for Haas 2020 — no points; academy driver, not a top-10 F1 career.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
10
Gabriel Bortoleto2024 F2 champion, signed by Sauber/Audi for 2025 — first Brazilian rookie since 2017; 2027 lens: must outscore Hülkenberg.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗

Worth knowing

Barrichello and Massa each have 11 wins — but Massa’s 16 poles vs Barrichello’s 14, and Massa outqualified Räikkönen; Barrichello never outqualified Schumacher over a season.
source · statsf1.com ↗
Gabriel Bortoleto (2025 Sauber) and Rafael Câmara (reported 2027 Haas) could make 2025–2027 first time with two Brazilian rookies since 1970s.
source · theathletic.com ↗

🇨🇳 Qwen

1
Ayrton Senna3 titles and 41 wins from 161 starts—40% of all Brazilian F1 victories belong to one man who mastered wet tracks like no other.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
2
Nelson PiquetBeat teammates Nigel Mansell and Alain Prost to 3 titles despite having fewer race wins than them in their shared championship seasons.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
3
Emerson FittipaldiThe pioneer who ended Brazil's title wait in 1972, but sacrificed his absolute prime years in an uncompetitive backmarker family team.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
4
Felipe MassaLost the 2008 title by a single point on the final lap, carrying Brazil's hopes for a decade as a Ferrari number-two behind Schumacher, Räikkönen and Alonso.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
5
Rubens BarrichelloHeld the all-time starts record (322) and won in a Stewart and a Brawn, but his 11 Ferrari wins came strictly in Schumacher's shadow.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
6
Carlos PaceInterlagos bears his name after a home win in a Brabham, but his career was tragically cut short in a plane crash after just 72 starts.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
7
Gabriel BortoletoEnded Brazil's 8-year F1 drought in 2025, but faces a massive 15-year gap to close since the nation's last victory in 2009.
source · formula1.com ↗
8
Roberto MorenoScored a shock podium in the chaotic 1990 Japanese Grand Prix as a last-minute substitute for Benetton.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
9
Nelson Piquet Jr.The 'Crashgate' podium in Singapore 2008 remains his only top-3 finish across 28 starts for Renault.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
10
Bruno SennaCarried the most famous name in motorsport to 33 points, but never matched his uncle's machinery or race-winning pace.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗

Worth knowing

Brazil has 101 F1 victories, but Rubens Barrichello's 2009 win at Monza remains the nation's last victory, a drought stretching over 15 years.
source · f1-fansite.com ↗
Gabriel Bortoleto's 2025 debut ended an eight-season gap where not a single Brazilian driver was on the Formula 1 grid.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
Felipe Massa and Rubens Barrichello both have exactly 11 career wins, but Massa accumulated his in more competitive Ferraris, while Barrichello scored his in a Stewart, a Honda, and a Brawn.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗

🇨🇳 DeepSeek

1
Ayrton Senna41 wins, 65 poles, 3 titles – and he never had the best car for a full season.
source · f1-fansite.com ↗
2
Nelson Piquet3 titles, 23 wins, and he beat Mansell in the same Williams.
source · f1-fansite.com ↗
3
Emerson Fittipaldi2 titles, 14 wins, and he founded his own F1 team.
source · f1-fansite.com ↗
4
Rubens Barrichello322 starts, 11 wins, but spent six years as Schumacher's number two.
source · f1-fansite.com ↗
5
Felipe MassaLost the 2008 title by one point after a pit-stop farce in Singapore.
source · f1-fansite.com ↗
6
José Carlos PaceHis only win came at home in 1975, but he outqualified teammates consistently.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
7
Christian FittipaldiNephew of Emerson, scored points in 1992 and outqualified teammate Capelli.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
8
Roberto MorenoNearly won in 1990, and beat teammate Piquet in qualifying at Benetton.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
9
Maurício GugelminScored points for March in 1988 and held his own against Capelli.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
10
Gabriel BortoletoThe first Brazilian since Senna to win a junior title and reach F1; now carries Brazil with Câmara.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗

Worth knowing

Senna's 41 wins are more than the next three Brazilians combined (Piquet 23 + Fittipaldi 14 = 37).
source · f1-fansite.com ↗
Massa's 1,167 points are the most by a Brazilian, but points systems changed dramatically across eras.
source · estadao.com.br ↗
Brazil had no driver on the grid in 2017-2018, the first gap since 1970.
source · beinsports.com ↗
Câmara and Bortoleto give Brazil two full-time drivers for the first time since 2016.
source · grandepremio.com ↗

Red Bull Driver Academy vs F1 Rivals: Top 10 Ranked 2026

Red Bull Junior Team1
Ferrari Driver Academy2
McLaren Driver Development Programme3
Alpine Academy4
Williams Driver Academy5

More

Red Bull's junior team has put about 20 drivers into F1 and produced 8 world titles through Vettel and Verstappen, yet in PlanetF1's 2023 table it converted the smallest share of juniors, 18.28%, of any academy with graduates.

1
Red Bull Junior TeamThe most graduates, about 20, and Vettel and Verstappen won 8 titles between them. Its conversion rate was the lowest of the academies with graduates: 18.28% of 93 juniors.
source · planetf1.com ↗
2
Ferrari Driver Academy23.08% of 26 juniors reached F1, but Leclerc is its only graduate in a full-time Ferrari seat. Haas will run two of its juniors, Bearman and Câmara, in 2027.
3
McLaren Driver Development ProgrammeJoint-highest rate at 28% of 25 juniors. It produced Hamilton and Norris, but Hamilton won only one of his titles, 2008, with McLaren, and Piastri came from Alpine's academy.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
4
Alpine AcademyThe biggest roster, 56 juniors, of whom 25% reached F1. Its best product, Piastri, won his races at McLaren, not Alpine.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
5
Williams Driver AcademyIts graduates (Latifi, Sargeant, Colapinto) went straight into Williams seats, with no race winner yet. PlanetF1's 28% is disputed because its table and text disagree.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
6
Toyota Young Drivers ProgrammeNow closed. It put Nakajima and Kobayashi into F1, and Kobayashi took a home podium at Suzuka in 2012.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
7
BMW Motorsport Junior ProgrammeGave Vettel his points-scoring debut at the 2007 US GP, and also backed Kubica. Vettel's wins are counted under Red Bull too. Only one AI ranked BMW.
8
Aston Martin Driver Development ProgrammeNo Grand Prix starts for its juniors yet. Felipe Drugovich, the 2022 F2 champion, has only held reserve and test roles.
source · planetf1.com ↗
9
Sauber / Audi AcademyNone of its 27 juniors had reached F1 by 2023, and Pourchaire, its 2023 F2 champion, never got a seat. Bortoleto, at Audi now, came from McLaren's programme.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗

Worth knowing

In PlanetF1's 2023 table every academy with graduates converted between 18% and 28% of its juniors, so a big roster mostly buys more graduates, not a better rate.
source · planetf1.com ↗
Haas has no academy of its own, yet both of its 2027 seats are set to go to Ferrari juniors, Bearman and Câmara. That raises the question of whether a customer-team seat counts as graduating.
source · skysports.com ↗
Red Bull brings back drivers it has dropped: Kvyat and Albon were both let go and later returned to fill Toro Rosso seats.
source · grandprix247.com ↗
Pérez and Stroll were Ferrari juniors who did their best work after Ferrari let them go. Most analysts leave them out of Ferrari's success stories.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
AIs gave different title counts for Red Bull graduates, 4, 6 or 8. Vettel's 4 and Verstappen's 4 make 8.
source · planetf1.com ↗

Details: how each AI answered

🇺🇸 Claude

1
Red Bull Junior TeamThe programme has put 20 drivers into F1, including Vettel and Verstappen, who won two titles in the 2.15% of members that PlanetF1 counts.
source · planetf1.com ↗
2
Ferrari Driver AcademyIts 2027 line-up at Haas would be Bearman and Camara.
3
Mercedes Junior Team27.27% conversion from only 11 drivers, and both of its 2026 race drivers (Russell, Antonelli) are graduates.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
4
McLaren Driver Development Programme28% reached F1, level first in PlanetF1's table.
source · planetf1.com ↗
5
Alpine Academy56 members, a quarter reached F1, but the best-known Alpine seat-holders (Ocon) came from elsewhere.
source · planetf1.com ↗
6
Williams Driver Academy28% reached F1 on PlanetF1's table, but the article's own text and table disagree, so treat that figure with care.
source · planetf1.com ↗
7
Aston Martin Driver Development ProgrammeOne member at the time of the PlanetF1 ranking, so there is nothing yet to judge.
source · planetf1.com ↗
8
Sauber Academy27 members and none had reached F1 by 2023.
source · planetf1.com ↗
9
Haas (no academy, only reserves)No junior programme exists, yet its seats will soon go to two Ferrari academy drivers.
source · planetf1.com ↗
10
Other team academies not yet measuredNo other academy has a published conversion rate to compare. I did not find a source for a tenth.
source · gridandformula.co.uk ↗

Worth knowing

On PlanetF1's 2023 table the conversion rates were bunched between 18% and 28% for the seven academies that had graduates.
source · planetf1.com ↗
Red Bull has used drivers it dropped before. Kvyat and Albon were let go and then brought back to fill Toro Rosso seats.
source · grandprix247.com ↗
Lindblad is the only rookie on the 2026 grid and the 20th Red Bull graduate in F1.
source · espn.com ↗

🇺🇸 Gemini

1
Red Bull Junior TeamExploits a dual-team monopoly to graduate over 16 drivers into Formula 1 seats since 2005, netting 6 World Drivers' Championships and over 100 Grand Prix wins through Sebastian Vettel and Max Verstappen.
source · redbull.com ↗
2
Mercedes Junior TeamMaintains a hyper-selective roster delivering an industry-leading ~40% F1 seat conversion rate, taking George Russell to parent team victories and fast-tracking Andrea Kimi Antonelli into a frontline seat.
3
Ferrari Driver AcademyHas turned customer team Haas into its primary finishing school, graduating Charles Leclerc to Ferrari wins, placing Oliver Bearman, and securing Rafael Câmara for a 2027 Haas race seat.
source · ferrari.com ↗
4
McLaren Driver Development ProgrammePioneered the modern model with Lewis Hamilton and nurtured Lando Norris into a title contender, prioritizing deep multi-year backing over rapid seat churn and backing Gabriel Bortoleto into Audi/Sauber.
5
Alpine AcademyScouted and funded premier talents like Oscar Piastri and Jack Doohan to back-to-back junior titles, but suffered severe structural bottlenecks that saw marquee graduates flee to rival teams.
6
Williams Racing Driver AcademyOperates an unvarnished direct line to its race seats, promoting Nicholas Latifi, Logan Sargeant, and Argentine sensation Franco Colapinto straight into Grand Prix action.
source · williamsf1.com ↗
7
Sauber AcademyGuided Théo Pourchaire and Zane Maloney to top feeder accolades, serving as a vital bridge while navigating ownership transitions toward Audi's full factory takeover.
source · sauber-group.com ↗
8
Aston Martin Driver Development ProgrammeSigned 2022 F2 champion Felipe Drugovich and American prospect Jak Crawford, but finds its pathway blocked by multi-year veteran contracts occupying both race seats.
source · astonmartinf1.com ↗
9
Toyota Young Drivers ProgramLeveraged 2000s engine contracts to secure F1 seats for Kamui Kobayashi and Kazuki Nakajima, highlighted by Kobayashi's historic home podium at Suzuka 2012.
10
BMW Motorsport Junior ProgrammeHanded Sebastian Vettel his points-scoring debut at Indianapolis 2007 and nurtured Robert Kubica before BMW's corporate withdrawal redirected its focus away from F1 seats.

Worth knowing

Red Bull's junior system is the only academy backed by a dedicated secondary constructor (Racing Bulls / Toro Rosso), enabling them to field 16+ graduates since 2005 without negotiating customer team compromises.
source · redbull.com ↗
The Ferrari Driver Academy relies heavily on customer relationships: with Rafael Câmara joining Haas for 2027 and Oliver Bearman debuting in 2025, Haas functions as Maranello's primary F1 proving ground rather than a direct path to the red car.
source · ferrari.com ↗

🇺🇸 Nemotron

1
Red Bull Junior TeamHighest conversion: 14+ graduates to F1 race seats (Verstappen, Vettel, Ricciardo, Gasly, Albon, Tsunoda, Lawson, Hadjar, etc.) — but many dropped early.
source · redbull.com ↗
2
Ferrari Driver Academy (FDA)Lower volume, higher quality: Leclerc, Bianchi, Fuoco, Giovinazzi, Shwartzman, Ilott, Camara — 7 graduates, 2 race winners (Leclerc, Bianchi none), 1 title contender.
3
Mercedes Junior TeamSmall but elite: Hamilton (pre-academy), Russell, Ocon, Wehrlein, Sargeant — 5 graduates, 1 champion (Russell not yet), high placement rate.
4
Alpine Academy (formerly Renault/Lotus)Produced Ocon, Piastri, Zhou, Doohan, Colapinto — strong recent conversion, but Piastri left for McLaren after title.
source · alpinecars.com ↗
5
McLaren Driver DevelopmentLate starter (2017), but hit rate high: Norris, Piastri (poached), Hughes, Ugochukwu — 3 graduates, 2 race winners.
6
Williams Driver AcademyFocus on pay drivers and late bloomers: Albon, Latifi, Sargeant, Colapinto — 4 graduates, 0 wins, but Albon resurrected career.
source · williamsf1.com ↗
7
Sauber / Audi Academy (new 2024)First graduate: Bortoleto (2025) — too early to judge; Audi backing suggests high future investment.
source · sauber-group.com ↗
8
Haas / Ferrari Partnership (not full academy)No standalone academy; uses FDA drivers (Camara 2027, Schumacher 2021–2022) — 2 graduates via Ferrari.
9
Aston Martin / Red Bull (no formal academy)Stroll (owner’s son), Drugovich (reserve) — no structured junior programme; low conversion.
10
Racing Bulls (AlphaTauri) — Red Bull feeder, not academyNot an academy but the destination for Red Bull juniors — 10+ Red Bull graduates raced here; counts as 'customer team' graduation.

Worth knowing

Customer-team seats (Racing Bulls, Haas, Sauber) now account for 40%+ of academy graduations — debate: does a Haas seat for Camara count as 'FDA graduation' if Ferrari placed him?
source · theathletic.com ↗

🇨🇳 Qwen

1
Red Bull Junior TeamProduced 40% of the 2025 grid, placing champions at the parent team (Verstappen) and customer teams like Racing Bulls (Lawson, Hadjar, Lindblad).
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
2
Ferrari Driver AcademyA true developer of talent (Leclerc) now using customer seats at Haas to graduate prospects like Rafael Câmara for 2027.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
3
Mercedes Junior TeamHighly selective with a tiny intake, yet produced the current parent team lineup of Russell and Antonelli without relying on customer teams.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
4
Alpine AcademyBrilliant at finding raw talent like Piastri and Ocon, but notoriously lost its best prospect to rival McLaren in a contract dispute.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
5
McLaren Driver Development ProgrammeHistorically signed already-proven stars like Magnussen, but recently reaped the rewards of poaching Alpine's crown jewel Piastri.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
6
Williams Driver AcademyStruggles with conversion rates and often relies on pay-drivers like Latifi, though Colapinto showed flashes of pace in a 2024 cameo.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
7
Audi Racing AcademyA brand new entity built around signing 2024 F2 Champion Gabriel Bortoleto to lead their 2026 factory entry.
source · audi.tt ↗
8
Aston Martin AMR Driver AcademyStill searching for its first permanent F1 race seat graduate despite heavy investment in junior single-seater signings.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
9
Sauber AcademyActed as a stepping stone for Bortoleto before Audi's takeover, but historically failed to promote drivers to its own F1 seats.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
10
Toyota Young Drivers ProgrammeA defunct but historically vital pipeline that gave F1 seats to Kazuki Nakajima and Kamui Kobayashi before the manufacturer's 2009 exit.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗

Worth knowing

The Athletic reported on October 15, 2026 that Ferrari-trained Rafael Câmara will replace Esteban Ocon at Haas for 2027, proving customer seats are now a vital graduation metric.
source · sportsnaut.com ↗
Alpine developed both Oscar Piastri and Esteban Ocon, but Piastri left for McLaren, showing that academy loyalty is often one-sided in modern F1.
source · cliorally.com ↗

🇨🇳 DeepSeek

1
Red Bull Junior Team17 graduates, 4 titles, and 18.28% conversion – the benchmark.
source · motorsport.com ↗
2
Ferrari Driver Academy23.08% conversion, produced Leclerc and now Câmara for Haas.
3
Mercedes Junior Team27.27% conversion, but only 3 graduates – quality over quantity.
source · grandprix247.com ↗
4
Alpine Academy25% conversion, but no world champion yet; Piastri won elsewhere.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
5
McLaren Driver Development Programme28% conversion, produced Hamilton and Norris.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
6
Williams Driver Academy28% conversion, but no race winner yet.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗
7
Sauber Academy27 drivers signed, 0 F1 graduates – the lowest conversion.
source · f1technical.net ↗
8
Aston Martin Driver Development ProgrammeNewest academy, only Felipe Drugovich, 0% conversion so far.
source · planetf1.com ↗
9
HaasNo academy, but gives Ferrari juniors a seat – Leclerc and now Câmara.
source · planetf1.com ↗
10
Audi Driver Development Programme (successor to Sauber)Rebranded for 2026, yet to produce an F1 driver.
source · en.wikipedia.org ↗

Worth knowing

Red Bull's 17 graduates are more than Ferrari (6) and Mercedes (3) combined.
source · planetf1.com ↗
Since 2020, only two F2 champions have gone straight to F1: Piastri (2023) and Bortoleto (2025).
source · dive-bomb.com ↗
McLaren's 28% conversion is the highest, but Hamilton is still the only race winner it produced.
source · planetf1.com ↗

Forecast before the AIs

Yes or no? Your forecast first — then we show what 10 AIs forecast.

Will Ferrari say Camara is moving to Haas by Wednesday?

We’ll know the answer on Wednesday

This question’s own page →

The result of the last question

Will Netflix's share price be higher on Wednesday than on Tuesday?

Result: «Yes»

6 of 10 AIs’ forecasts came true:

Meta AIKimiDeepSeekGeminiQwenZ.ai

Checked on: finance.yahoo.com

Previous trends

All trends by date

How it works · for the press

The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges (including a judge from Europe) score the answers without knowing who wrote them.

(License CC BY 4.0)
Journalists and bloggers: take whatever you need from here — just credit «Poly Trends, polyhelper.ai».

More

10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 11 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. In all, 16 AIs were asked and 13 answered; the page shows the 5 strongest from each country.

Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.

We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.

Came true or not: forecasts of the leading AI models →

Mistral (Large 4 or Medium 3.5), ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron + Mercury, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxin and Claude Opus read the answers without knowing who wrote them.

Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by public rankings of AIs (LMArena, Artificial Analysis and others) — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed — and every judge gets its own order, so no answer is first for everyone.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, insight beyond the obvious, usefulness and clarity; the score is the average of the judges, with strict and generous judges put on one scale.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own AI's and its own company's answers too, and every mark counts: the answers carry only letters, so no judge knows which one is its own.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.

Judge by judge: Mistral — USA ahead by 0.9; ChatGPT (USA) — USA ahead by 1.3; Meta (USA) — USA ahead by 0.9; Gemini (USA) — USA ahead by 1.5; Nemotron + Mercury (USA) — USA ahead by 0.8; Qwen (China) — USA ahead by 0.7; Z.ai (China) — USA ahead by 0.6; Kimi (China) — USA ahead by 1.7; DeepSeek (China) — USA ahead by 1.0; Wenxin (China) — USA ahead by 1.0; Claude Opus (USA) — USA ahead by 1.2.

Who scored highest

#	AI	Side	Mistral	ChatGPT	Meta	Gemini	Nemotron + Mercury	Qwen	Z.ai	Kimi	DeepSeek	Wenxin	Claude Opus	Score
1	Gemini	USA	7.0	8.3	8.0	9.3	8.8	9.5	8.0	8.0	8.8	9.5	8.0	8.5
2	Claude	USA	7.5	8.5	7.3	9.5	8.8	8.8	8.0	8.5	8.3	8.5	8.3	8.4
3	ChatGPT	USA	7.5	9.0	7.5	8.8	7.5	9.0	8.0	7.8	9.0	8.5	8.3	8.3
4	Kimi	China	7.0	7.0	6.8	8.5	8.0	8.8	8.3	8.0	8.8	8.5	8.0	8.0
5	DeepSeek	China	6.8	7.3	6.0	7.0	6.5	7.8	6.5	5.8	7.3	7.3	6.0	6.7
6	Meta	USA	6.3	7.0	5.5	6.8	6.5	7.8	6.8	5.5	8.0	7.3	5.0	6.6
7	Z.ai	China	5.8	7.3	6.8	5.5	6.5	7.8	6.5	5.3	7.5	6.3	5.5	6.4
8	Qwen	China	4.3	4.8	4.0	4.3	5.0	5.5	5.5	4.0	5.8	5.5	3.8	4.7
9	Wenxin	China	4.8	3.8	3.5	3.3	5.0	4.5	5.3	3.8	4.5	4.8	3.3	4.2
10	Nemotron + Mercury	USA	4.0	3.8	3.8	2.8	3.3	2.8	4.0	5.3	4.3	3.5	3.3	3.7

Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their average. Equal scores share a place.

Which models answer

The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan, the kind people buy for themselves (up to about $40 a month), or free, with web search on, once.

Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.

The five AIs of each country are reviewed every 3 days by average scores: the weakest gives its place to the strongest reserve.

AI	Model	Thinking mode	Plan	How we know the model
Claude	Claude Opus 5.5	Max	Max	the app showed it
ChatGPT	GPT-6	Extra high	Pro	the app showed it
Meta	Muse Spark 1.3	Thinking	free	from the app's help page
Gemini	Gemini 4 Argon	High	Google AI Pro	the app showed it
Nemotron + Mercury	Nemotron 3 Ultra	High	free, no sign-in	the app showed it
Mercury web search for Nemotron + Mercury	Mercury 2.5	High	free	the app doesn't say
Qwen	Qwen3.8-Max	Thinking	free	the app showed it
Z.ai	GLM-5.3	Deep Think Max (deepest thinking)	free	from the app's help page
Kimi	Kimi K3	High	Pro ($39)	the app showed it
DeepSeek	DeepSeek V4.1 Flash	DeepThink (thinks before answering)	free	from the app's help page
Wenxin	ERNIE	Fast	free, no sign-in	the app doesn't say
Mistral · AI judge	Mistral Large 4 or Medium 3.5	Think	Free	the app doesn't say
Claude Opus · AI judge	Claude Opus 5.5	Max	Max	the app showed it

Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.

The forecast · result on Nov 14, 2026

Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability

Will Haas officially confirm Rafael Camara as a 2027 driver by November 14?

The exact question every AI answered: Will Haas or Ferrari officially announce Rafael Camara as a Haas race driver for 2027, in a statement on their official websites or social accounts, by 2026-11-14?

The result comes on Nov 14, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. A media report, rumour or paddock source does not count; only an official announcement counts. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.

together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer

Five AIs from the USA together · 95%
ChatGPT100%
Gemini99%
Claude97%
Meta88%
Nemotron + Mercury50%
Five AIs from China together · 98%
Qwen100%
DeepSeek100%
Kimi99%
Z.ai95%
Wenxin82%

All ten AIs together · 95%

Poly Index

The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.

Five AIs from the USA95%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron + Mercuryall 5 answered
Five AIs from China98%Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxinall 5 answered
All ten AIs95%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron + Mercury, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxinall 10 answered

How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.

Each AI's own forecast (10)

AI	Forecast	Checked on	Chance
Claude	Haas posts an official statement (haasf1team.com or its official social accounts) confirming Oliver Bearman as a Haas race driver for 2027, by the end of the US Grand Prix weekend	Oct 25, 2026	45%
ChatGPT	Haas will officially confirm Oliver Bearman as one of its race drivers for the 2027 season on its website or official social accounts.	Nov 14, 2026	74%
Meta	Haas will field Rafael Camara in an official Formula 1 Free Practice 1 session before the end of the 2026 season	Dec 1, 2026	70%
Gemini	Haas officially announces on its website or social accounts that Oliver Bearman will drive alongside Rafael Camara for the 2027 Formula 1 season by the end of the United States Grand Prix on October 25, 2026.	Oct 25, 2026	65%
Nemotron + Mercury	I cannot make a checkable forecast without verified current sources	Nov 14, 2026	0%
Qwen	Haas announces a new major sponsor alongside Camara's official debut press release.	Nov 30, 2026	40%
Z.ai	Rafael Camara will score at least one World Championship point in his first F1 season (2027).	Dec 1, 2027	75%
Kimi	Haas officially confirms Oliver Bearman as its second 2027 race driver alongside Câmara, on its website or social accounts	Nov 14, 2026	72%
DeepSeek	Haas will officially confirm Oliver Bearman as Camara's 2027 teammate on its website.	Nov 14, 2026	80%
Wenxin	Rafael Camara will appear in a Haas F1 team official social media post posing with the team cap and car livery	Nov 10, 2026	72%

Each own forecast is checked on its own date.

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