What does this result mean for the two clubs before the second match, and what is likely to happen in São Paulo on October 21? What does it mean for football fans in Brazil, Portugal and around the world who follow this cup, and what should they watch for (source)?
In plain words: Copa Libertadores — South America's top club football cup; Maracanã — famous football stadium in Rio de Janeiro; Nubank — a large Brazilian digital bank; Conmebol — South American Football Confederation, runs the cup; ESPN — an American sports news channel and website; Gazeta Esportiva — a Brazilian sports news site
What to do
One Fluminense goal changes everything, so be watching when the match starts, not at half-time.
Who should do what
Fans at home: Watch on Wednesday, October 21 at 9:30 p.m. Brasília time (Globo, ge tv or Paramount+ in Brazil, SPORT.TV 1 in Portugal).
People wanting a seat in São Paulo: Buy on Palmeiras' official ticket site now, in your own name, because entry is by face scan.
Fans planning a trip to Montevideo: Book only refundable flights and hotels; one AI says the official package refunds 80% if your club misses the final (book by October 22).
What not to do: Don't treat a one-goal Palmeiras loss as safe: it ends level and goes to penalties.
A draw is enough for Palmeiras, but not a 1–0 loss. A 1–0 Palmeiras defeat would level the tie and send it to penalties, so the lead is thinner than it looks.
The early minutes decide the match. Fluminense must attack and leave space for Palmeiras' counterattacks, which scored both goals in Rio. Football fans, be at a screen by 9:30 p.m. Brasília time on Wednesday, October 21 (8:30 p.m. New York, 1:30 a.m. Thursday in Lisbon). If Palmeiras score first, relax a little; if not, stay to the end.
Tickets and travel have different deadlines. Palmeiras tickets went on general sale on October 15 and entry is by face scan, so buy in your own name. Fluminense's 4,000 away tickets are gone.
This is what most of the 10 AIs advise. Each AI explains it in its own words below.
What the world's 10 leading AIs think
They agree
8 of 10: a draw sends Palmeiras to the final.
They split
Fluminense's shots in Rio: 11 by Claude, 18 by Kimi.
Not obvious
Fluminense's late goal turned a safe one-goal loss into a penalty risk.
What to watch
If Fluminense score in the first 30 minutes on October 21, the tie is truly open.
Most of the AIs agree on the numbers for the second match. Palmeiras go through with a draw or a win, since Palmeiras lead 2–1 from the first match. Fluminense must win by two goals to go straight through. A one-goal win levels the tie and sends it to a penalty shoot-out, with no away-goals rule and no extra time.
They also agree on the shape of the first match. Fluminense kept the ball (64% to 70%, depending on the data source) but made little of it. Palmeiras scored twice on quick counterattacks. The final is on November 28 in Montevideo, Uruguay.
The AIs split on odds and on details. Claude puts Palmeiras at about 5 in 6, ChatGPT at 86%, and Opus-style judges at 80–85%. The stats differ by provider: Fluminense had 11 shots by one count and 18 by another, and their record at Palmeiras' stadium is one win in 11, 12 or 13 visits. Several weaker answers got the rules wrong. Nemotron wrongly lets Fluminense survive a draw, and Z.ai puts the match on the wrong day.
The strongest finding comes from comparing the answers. Before 18-year-old Wesley Natã's stoppage-time header, even a one-goal loss at home would have been enough for Palmeiras. Now a single Fluminense goal forces penalties. So the first half-hour matters most: if Fluminense score early, the tie opens, and if Palmeiras score first, Fluminense need two goals just to reach penalties.
Other things the AIs flagged are Abel Ferreira's return from his one-match ban and Thiago Silva's dislike of the artificial turf. They also flagged Vitor Roque's ankle and the other semifinal, Estudiantes against Flamengo. Flamengo's coach is also Portuguese (Leonardo Jardim), so the final could have two Portuguese coaches.
They split: Fluminense's shots in Rio: 11 by Claude, 18 by Kimi. What settles the dispute: The October 21 result and shot count will show who judged the odds right.
No clear split: AIs from both countries gave the same core picture; China's answers made more rule mistakes.
What is confirmed and what is not
The AIs' conclusion A draw on October 21 sends Palmeiras to the November 28 final.
The AIs' conclusion Under Abel Ferreira, Palmeiras advanced all eight times after an away first-leg win.
The AIs' conclusion Palmeiras are about 5-in-6 favourites (estimates range 80–86%).
The AIs read 73 sources
Ask any AI yourself
My team led 2–1 after the first match of a two-match tie. Explain how penalties could still decide it and what I should watch for.
Who wins, who loses: Palmeiras fans and ticket buyers gain; Fluminense fans need a two-goal comeback.
The final answer, by Claude Opus
Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Under each answer: its model — the exact version of the AI. Tap an answer to read it.
1ClaudeUSA8.4Palmeiras won first games away eight times under Abel — and always advanced
Palmeiras are now clear favourites, about 5 in 6 by my estimate: a draw at home on Wednesday, October 21, puts them in the final, while Fluminense must win by one goal to force a penalty shoot-out (players take turns shooting from the spot) or by two to go through (maisgoias.com.bren.wikipedia.org).
History helps Palmeiras: with coach Abel Ferreira, now back from a one-game ban, they won a first game away eight times in this cup's two-game rounds and always went through, and Fluminense have won once in 13 visits to Palmeiras since 2015 (portaldopalestra.com.brportaldopalestra.com.bresportenewsmundo.com.br).
Expect Fluminense to keep the ball and Palmeiras to hit on fast breaks again, but the gap is thin: in Rio, Fluminense had the ball 64% of the time and took 11 shots to 7, and an 18-year-old's first goal as a professional kept them in it (exame.combnews.com.br).
If you want a seat, Palmeiras opened sales to everyone today, October 15, at 120 to 500 reais, entry is by face scan only, and Fluminense's 4,000 away tickets sold out in minutes (portaldopalestra.com.brpalmeiras.com.brnetflu.com.br).
In Portugal the game falls in the early hours of Thursday, October 22, and has a home angle: Abel Ferreira can reach his fourth Libertadores final, and Flamengo, in the other semifinal, are coached by another Portuguese, Leonardo Jardim, so the final could pit two Portuguese coaches (sapo.ptrtp.ptrecord.ptobservador.pt).
For fans everywhere, the winner of the November 28 final in Montevideo also earns places at FIFA's Intercontinental Cup this year and at the 2029 Club World Cup (lanacion.com.aren.wikipedia.orgfifa.com).
Mark Wednesday, October 21, at 9:30 p.m. Brasília time (8:30 p.m. in New York), fans: if Palmeiras score first, relax a little, since Fluminense would then need two goals just to reach a shoot-out; if not, stay to the final whistle, since one Fluminense goal would force it (maquinadoesporte.com.br).
Watch for coach Marcão's changes, as he weighs playing two forwards through the middle, and for 42-year-old captain Thiago Silva on artificial grass he says he dislikes and calls much faster than the Maracanã (saudacoestricolores.comnetflu.com.brbnews.com.br).
First, tonight, Thursday, October 15, at 9:30 p.m. Brasília time, Estudiantes host Flamengo; if Flamengo go through at home on October 22, the final will be all-Brazilian and could repeat last year's, which Palmeiras lost to Flamengo (oficinadanet.com.brlance.com.brrtp.pt).
Model: Claude Opus 5.5 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Max · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Flamengo knock out Estudiantes in the other semifinal (second game on Oct 22 at the Maracanã) and are listed as a 2026 Copa Libertadores finalist, making the Nov 28 final in Montevideo all-Brazilian. — 60% chance by Oct 23, 2026
2KimiChina8.1Palmeiras won with its coach banned — he's back for the decider
The 2–1 away win puts Palmeiras one draw from the final: on Wednesday, October 21, at 9:30 p.m. Brasília time at Nubank Parque, a tie sends the São Paulo club to the November 28 final at Montevideo's Estádio Centenário. Fluminense must win by two goals to advance directly; a one-goal Rio win levels the total score and sends the tie straight to a penalty shootout, since this round has no away-goals rule and no extra time.
The numbers from Rio show why Fluminense is in trouble despite dominating: 70% of the ball and 18 shots, only 3 on target, while Palmeiras scored twice from quick counterattacks and finished with the better quality of chances (1.18 to 0.48 in expected goals).
For fans beyond Brazil there are two hooks. Portugal has a coach on each side of the likely final: Abel Ferreira, Palmeiras's Portuguese manager who won this cup in 2020 and 2021 and just reached his sixth semifinal in seven years, missed the first leg through suspension and returns to the bench on the 21st; Leonardo Jardim's Flamengo plays tonight, October 15, at Estudiantes in Argentina, the last non-Brazilian club standing after seven straight Brazilian titles in this cup.
Worldwide, the tie also shapes the Brazilian league race: Palmeiras sits one point behind Flamengo and plays again on Saturday, so tired legs and squad rotation will matter.
Clear your evening on Wednesday, October 21: fans should be in front of a screen by 9:30 p.m. Brasília time (8:30 p.m. New York), because Fluminense must attack from the first minute and that leaves exactly the open field Palmeiras's counterattack feasts on.
If you dream of seeing the final in Montevideo, book by October 22 — the official travel agency refunds 80% if your club misses the final; if not, just watch for two things: whether Fluminense's 4,000 traveling fans, whose tickets sold out in minutes, lift the attack, and whether Palmeiras's league-tight defense holds one more night.
Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Its own forecast: The Palmeiras–Fluminense semifinal is decided by a penalty shootout, meaning Fluminense wins the second leg by exactly one goal in regulation time — 16% chance by Oct 22, 2026
3ChatGPTUSA8.0Fluminense made 801 passes; Palmeiras needed just seven shots
Palmeiras are strong favorites to reach the final, but qualification is not guaranteed. A draw in São Paulo sends Palmeiras through; Fluminense must win by two goals to advance outright, while a one-goal victory forces a penalty shootout (www1.folha.uol.com.br).
My estimate is an 86% chance of Palmeiras qualifying, although the tactical warning is striking: Fluminense controlled 70% of possession and completed 801 passes in Rio, while Palmeiras scored twice from only seven shots, showing how dangerous their quick counterattacks can be (uol.com.br).
The home advantage strengthens Palmeiras' position: they have won 14 of 20 home matches this year, while Fluminense have won only once in 11 visits to Palmeiras' stadium since 2014 (uol.com.br).
For Portuguese supporters, another compelling storyline is coach Abel Ferreira's expected return to the sidelines after serving a one-match suspension; he previously led Palmeiras to Libertadores titles in 2020 and 2021 (tmc.com.br; sporttv.pt).
Watch whether injured Palmeiras forward Vitor Roque recovers in time and whether Fluminense give another opportunity to Wesley Natã, who became their youngest Libertadores knockout scorer at 18 years and 179 days (uol.com.br; gol.conmebol.com).
Watch, fans, on October 21 at 21:30 Brasília time: if you're in Brazil, follow Globo, ge TV or Paramount+; if you're in Portugal, tune to SPORT.TV 1 at 01:30 on October 22 (mktesportivo.com; sporttv.pt).
Elsewhere, check your local broadcaster and pay particular attention to whether Fluminense produce clearer scoring chances without exposing themselves to the fast breaks Palmeiras exploited in Rio (gol.conmebol.com).
Also follow the Flamengo–Estudiantes semifinal: its winner will face whichever club survives this tie, making the result important to supporters across South America and beyond (www1.folha.uol.com.br).
Model: GPT-6 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Extra high · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Fluminense will finish the October 21 second leg with more ball possession than Palmeiras, according to ESPN's match statistics. — 58% chance by Oct 22, 2026
4MiMoChina7.8Palmeiras won at the Maracanã with barely a third of the ball
Palmeiras leave Rio one draw from the final: any tie at Nubank Parque on October 21 puts them through, while Fluminense must win by two goals or more to go straight through, and a one-goal Fluminense win goes to a shootout.
The reason it is not comfier is Wesley Natã's stoppage-time header — before it, even a one-goal home defeat would still have been enough for Palmeiras (ge.globo.com, uol.com.br).
Coach Abel Ferreira, a Portuguese, was suspended for the first leg and is back for the second, while striker Vitor Roque stayed out with an ankle sprain (uol.com.br).
The second leg is on an artificial surface — a plastic-like turf that plays faster than grass — which captain Thiago Silva says he dislikes, and Fluminense now have to attack on it (uol.com.br).
Fans, set Wednesday, October 21 at 21:30 Brasília time: if you can get to the stadium or to Globo, ge tv or Paramount+, lock it in now; if not, follow the live text and watch whether Fluminense throw players forward early, which is when Palmeiras scored twice in Rio (palmeiras.com.br, ge.globo.com).
Model: MiMo-V2.6-Pro (the app showed it) · searched the internet
Its own forecast: The semifinal second leg at Nubank Parque is decided on penalty kicks — 22% chance by Oct 21, 2026
5GeminiUSA7.7Palmeiras tried only one cross all game — and scored from it
Palmeiras is now the clear favorite to reach the November 28 championship game in Montevideo, Uruguay, because any tie or win at Nubank Parque on October 21 sends the São Paulo club through (exame.com).
In São Paulo, Portuguese coach Abel Ferreira is likely to use the same tight defense that let Fluminense keep the ball for 70.3% of the first game while Palmeiras put five of seven shots on target and scored from its only cross of the night (estadao.com.br).
Still, fans in Brazil, Portugal, and around the world have a live race to watch because substitute Wesley Natã became the youngest Fluminense player ever to score in a win-or-go-home round at 18 years and 179 days old, meaning a one-goal Fluminense win on October 21 forces tiebreaker kicks from the penalty spot (gol.conmebol.com, errejotanoticias.com.br).
For travellers planning a trip to the November 28 final at Estádio Centenário in Montevideo, this away win makes an all-Brazilian title match much more likely ahead of the other semifinal between Argentina's Estudiantes de La Plata and defending champion Flamengo starting today, October 15 (exame.com, portalr3.com.br).
Match-going visitors heading to Nubank Parque on October 21 will also watch former Fluminense star Jhon Arias try to eliminate the Rio club where he won the 2023 South American title, while viewers in Portugal follow Abel Ferreira as he chases another continental trophy for three-time champion Palmeiras (estadao.com.br, zerozero.pt, beinsports.com).
Watch the second semifinal match, fans, on Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 21:30 Brasília time (20:30 New York time): if Fluminense scores first to tie the two-game total, stay tuned for a penalty shootout; if not, expect Palmeiras to lock down the field and advance in 90 minutes (exame.com, estadao.com.br).
Check today's October 15 opening semifinal between Estudiantes and Flamengo as well: if you want to travel to Montevideo for the November 28 final, book refundable flights and hotels before October 21; if not, wait until both finalists are decided next week (gazetaesportiva.com, portalr3.com.br).
Model: Gemini 4 Argon (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Fluminense scores at least one goal against Palmeiras in 90 minutes plus added time in the second semifinal match in São Paulo on October 21, 2026, as shown in ESPN's match report — 58% chance by Oct 22, 2026
6DeepSeekChina7.0Fluminense has won just once in 12 visits to Palmeiras's stadium
Palmeiras is in the driver's seat: it can lose 1-0, draw, or even win by any score and still reach the final, while Fluminense must win by two goals to advance directly, or by one to force penalties. The second leg is on Wednesday, October 21 at 21:30 Brasília time at Nubank Parque in São Paulo, a stadium where Fluminense has won only once in 12 visits since it opened1.
The synthetic pitch there is another hurdle: Fluminense captain Thiago Silva said he doesn't like playing on it, though he said Palmeiras isn't to blame2. For Palmeiras, the equation is simple: protect the advantage at home. For Fluminense, the task is steep: win by two goals in a stadium where the club has historically struggled, on a surface its captain dislikes.
For fans in Brazil, Portugal and around the world, the second leg is must-watch because a single early Fluminense goal would make the tie tense, but Palmeiras can also sit back and counter. Watch for how Fluminense coach Marcão sets up — he's already studying tactical changes, possibly using two more central players to break down Palmeiras's defensive block3.
Also watch Palmeiras's set pieces: six of its 15 goals in this Libertadores came from dead-ball situations, and it wins 64% of its defensive aerial duels, the second-best among the semifinalists4. If Fluminense scores first, the Maracanã-style pressure will shift to São Paulo; if Palmeiras scores first, the tie is effectively over.
Fans with tickets to Nubank Parque should arrive early and expect a loud, tense night — the away section is already sold out5. Those watching on TV should keep an eye on the first 15 minutes: if Fluminense doesn't score early, Palmeiras will likely grow comfortable and kill the game on the counter.
The final is scheduled for November, and Palmeiras is one step away from its eighth Libertadores final and fourth under coach Abel Ferreira, who returns to the bench after suspension6.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): DeepThink (thinks before answering) · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Palmeiras will be listed as a finalist on Conmebol's official site or major sports news by 2026-11-14 — 82% chance by Nov 14, 2026
7MetaUSA6.9Palmeiras needs just a draw at 43,713-seat Nubank Parque on Oct 21
Palmeiras left Rio with the edge you want in a two-game tie. A draw on Oct 21 at Nubank Parque sends Palmeiras to the final on Nov 28 at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo, while Fluminense needs to win by one to force penalties and by two to go straight through.
For fans in Brazil, Portugal and worldwide, this is an all-Brazilian semi that will decide half of the final against Flamengo or Estudiantes. Fluminense had over 70% of the ball at Maracanã but lost to counters from Flaco López at 45' and Marlon Freitas at 85', and Portugal viewers will watch at 01:30 on Oct 22 for whether Marcão gives more minutes to 18-year-old Wesley Natã who came off the bench to score.
Check your plan today for Wednesday Oct 21 at 21:30 Brasília at Nubank Parque in São Paulo, home of Palmeiras since it was renamed from Allianz Parque in May 2026 after a fan vote for Nubank.
If you have a ticket or a stream, do this: arrive early and watch the left side Piquerez to Andreas Pereira to López and the late counter; if not, do that: set a 21:20 alarm and follow the other semi Flamengo vs Estudiantes on Oct 22 to know who meets the winner in Montevideo.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Fluminense scores first on Oct 21 at Nubank Parque but Palmeiras still advances to the final — 48% chance by Oct 22, 2026
8QwenChina4.8Palmeiras plays at Nubank Parque, a stadium renamed after a digital bank.
This result means Palmeiras holds a massive advantage because the old rule counting away goals double no longer exists in South American tournaments. Fluminense must now win by at least two clear goals next week to reach the final without relying on a penalty shootout2.
For ticket resellers and local bars in São Paulo, this tight scoreline guarantees a huge surge in customers for the return leg at the newly renamed Nubank Parque. Sports betting shops will also see heavy action from fans trying to predict whether the Portuguese coach Abel Ferreira can defend his lead or if the tie goes to a penalty shootout.
Watch the match on October 21, football fans, and observe how the game starts. If Fluminense scores early, expect an open game; if not, prepare for a tense defensive struggle ending in a penalty shootout.
Model: Qwen3.8-Max (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Fluminense scores at least two goals in the second leg against Palmeiras. — 40% chance by Oct 21, 2026
9Z.aiChina4.5Palmeiras' 2-1 away win flips semifinal pressure to Fluminense
For fans, this means the return leg in São Paulo on Tuesday will be a tense, winner-takes-all clash. Palmeiras just needs to avoid defeat at home to reach the final, while Fluminense must win by two clear goals to advance. This simple but high-stakes scenario makes the second match a must-watch event for Brazilian football supporters.
For businesses, this result shifts economic activity toward São Paulo. Local hotels, bars, and transportation services near Palmeiras' stadium can expect a surge in demand from traveling fans and media. Airlines and travel platforms will see increased bookings between Rio and São Paulo for match week. Sponsors of both clubs will also intensify promotional activities around this decisive match.
If you are a fan planning to watch, book your travel and accommodations immediately—prices will rise as the date approaches. If you cannot attend, secure your streaming access early, as official broadcasts will likely experience high demand. Follow official club channels and Conmebol announcements for any logistical updates.
Model: GLM-5.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Deep Think Max (deepest thinking) · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Palmeiras will qualify for the 2026 Copa Libertadores final by drawing or winning the second leg against Fluminense. — 65% chance by Oct 21, 2026
10Nemotron + MercuryUSA3.52nd leg at Nubank Park could decide a finalist in 90 minutes
Palmeiras now hold a narrow advantage heading into the second semifinal leg, making the upcoming match in São Paulo far more strategic than decisive on its own. A draw or narrow loss still puts Fluminense in a realistic playoff spot, but any goal for Fluminense changes the entire equation for both clubs. For ordinary fans in Brazil, this raises the stakes for the final match at Nubank Park, where home advantage could be critical.
This tight result also impacts broadcast rights and local sponsorship deals, especially for businesses tied to Flamengo and Corinthians fans who now shift attention to Palmeiras as the favorite for the final.
Investors in Brazilian football stocks may see volatility as Palmeiras edges closer to the continental crown. The atmosphere around Rio and São Paulo over the next week will turn into a full-blown regional rivalry, with travel demand to Nubank Park already surging online.
Check ticket availability now if you plan to attend; if you're outside Brazil, stream the second leg on 21 October and track the 90-minute result to see if penalties are needed. Keep watching goal tallies—each team now only needs one goal away from home to take a strong step forward into the final.
Model: Mercury 2.5 (the app doesn't say) · mode (how long it thinks): High · Nemotron 3 Ultra did not answer — Mercury wrote it alone · searched the internet
The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges score the answers without knowing who wrote them.
(License CC BY 4.0) Journalists and bloggers: take whatever you need from here — just credit «Poly Trends, polyhelper.ai».
More
10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 8 judges scored them without knowing who wrote them. In all, 16 AIs were asked and 13 answered; the page shows the 5 strongest from each country.
Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.
We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.
Meta (Muse Spark 1.3), Gemini, Nemotron + Mercury, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek and Claude Opus read the answers without knowing who wrote them.
Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by public rankings of AIs (LMArena, Artificial Analysis and others) — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed — and every judge gets its own order, so no answer is first for everyone.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, insight beyond the obvious, usefulness and clarity; the score is the average of the judges, with strict and generous judges put on one scale.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own AI's and its own company's answers too, and every mark counts: the answers carry only letters, so no judge knows which one is its own.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.
Judge by judge: Meta (USA) — USA ahead by 0.6; Gemini (USA) — USA ahead by 0.7; Nemotron + Mercury (USA) — USA ahead by 0.5; Qwen (China) — USA ahead by 1.0; Z.ai (China) — a tie (USA ahead by only 0.1); Kimi (China) — a tie (USA ahead by only 0.2); DeepSeek (China) — USA ahead by 0.3; Claude Opus (USA) — USA ahead by 0.4.
Who scored highest
#
AI
Side
Meta
Gemini
Nemotron + Mercury
Qwen
Z.ai
Kimi
DeepSeek
Claude Opus
Score
1
Claude
USA
8.3
8.5
9.0
9.0
8.0
8.0
8.3
8.3
8.4
2
Kimi
China
8.0
9.8
8.5
6.5
8.5
7.8
8.3
7.8
8.1
3
ChatGPT
USA
7.8
8.5
8.5
8.3
7.8
8.5
7.5
7.3
8.0
4
MiMo
China
7.3
7.3
8.0
7.3
8.0
8.3
8.3
7.5
7.8
5
Gemini
USA
7.8
8.5
7.5
8.3
7.5
7.8
7.3
6.8
7.7
6
DeepSeek
China
5.8
6.8
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.3
7.0
6.0
7.0
7
Meta
USA
6.3
7.3
7.0
7.0
7.3
6.8
7.3
6.5
6.9
8
Qwen
China
4.8
4.0
4.8
5.0
5.0
6.0
4.8
3.5
4.8
9
Z.ai
China
4.5
3.8
5.3
3.8
5.3
5.3
3.8
4.3
4.5
10
Nemotron + Mercury
USA
3.5
2.5
4.5
2.5
4.0
4.3
3.3
2.5
3.5
Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their average. Equal scores share a place.
Which models answer
The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan, the kind people buy for themselves (up to about $40 a month), or free, with web search on, once.
Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.
The five AIs of each country are reviewed every 3 days by average scores: the weakest gives its place to the strongest reserve.
AI
Model
Thinking mode
Plan
How we know the model
Claude
Claude Opus 5.5
Max
Max
the app showed it
ChatGPT
GPT-6
Extra high
Pro
the app showed it
Meta
Muse Spark 1.3
Thinking
free
from the app's help page
Gemini
Gemini 4 Argon
High
Google AI Pro
the app showed it
Nemotron + Mercury
Mercury 2.5
High
free
the app doesn't say
Mercury web search for Nemotron + Mercury
Mercury 2.5
High
free
the app doesn't say
MiMo
MiMo-V2.6-Pro
free
the app showed it
Qwen
Qwen3.8-Max
Thinking
free
the app showed it
Z.ai
GLM-5.3
Deep Think Max (deepest thinking)
free
from the app's help page
Kimi
Kimi K3
High
Pro ($39)
the app showed it
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash
DeepThink (thinks before answering)
free
from the app's help page
Claude Opus · AI judge
Claude Opus 5.5
Max
Max
the app showed it
Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.
The forecast · result on Nov 14, 2026
Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability
Will Palmeiras reach South America's top club final?
The exact question every AI answered: Will Palmeiras qualify for the 2026 Copa Libertadores final, as shown on the official South American Football Confederation (Conmebol) website or in major sports news, by 2026-11-14?
The result comes on Nov 14, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. Counts: Palmeiras listed as a finalist after the semifinal against Fluminense, including a win on penalties. Does not count: Palmeiras being eliminated, or the second match being postponed past 2026-11-14 with no result. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.
together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer
0%25%50%75%100%
Five AIs from the USA together · 79%
ChatGPT86%
Claude83%
Gemini83%
Nemotron + Mercury72%
Meta68%
Five AIs from China together · 77%
MiMo82%
DeepSeek82%
Kimi78%
Z.ai70%
Qwen65%
All ten AIs together · 77%
Poly Index
The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.
Five AIs from the USA79%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron + Mercuryall 5 answered
Five AIs from China77%MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 5 answered
All ten AIs77%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Gemini, Nemotron + Mercury, MiMo, Qwen, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeekall 10 answered
How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.
Each AI's own forecast (10)
AI
Forecast
Checked on
Chance
Claude
Flamengo knock out Estudiantes in the other semifinal (second game on Oct 22 at the Maracanã) and are listed as a 2026 Copa Libertadores finalist, making the Nov 28 final in Montevideo all-Brazilian.
Oct 23, 2026
60%
ChatGPT
Fluminense will finish the October 21 second leg with more ball possession than Palmeiras, according to ESPN's match statistics.
Oct 22, 2026
58%
Meta
Fluminense scores first on Oct 21 at Nubank Parque but Palmeiras still advances to the final
Oct 22, 2026
48%
Gemini
Fluminense scores at least one goal against Palmeiras in 90 minutes plus added time in the second semifinal match in São Paulo on October 21, 2026, as shown in ESPN's match report
Oct 22, 2026
58%
Nemotron + Mercury
Palmeiras advance to Copa Libertadores final
Oct 21, 2026
65%
MiMo
The semifinal second leg at Nubank Parque is decided on penalty kicks
Oct 21, 2026
22%
Qwen
Fluminense scores at least two goals in the second leg against Palmeiras.
Oct 21, 2026
40%
Z.ai
Palmeiras will qualify for the 2026 Copa Libertadores final by drawing or winning the second leg against Fluminense.
Oct 21, 2026
65%
Kimi
The Palmeiras–Fluminense semifinal is decided by a penalty shootout, meaning Fluminense wins the second leg by exactly one goal in regulation time
Oct 22, 2026
16%
DeepSeek
Palmeiras will be listed as a finalist on Conmebol's official site or major sports news by 2026-11-14
Nov 14, 2026
82%
Each own forecast is checked on its own date.
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