On October 15, 2026, Porsche showed the Mission S. It is a concept car (a preview model) for a petrol super sports car that will sit above the 911 as a permanent model.
Porsche is doing this while its sales fall and it cuts jobs (source).
What does this choice say about where the car business and luxury goods are going? What could happen next for Porsche, its workers, its rivals and car buyers? What should people like this page's readers take from it: car owners and buyers, people who work in the car trade, and those who own or are thinking of buying shares?
In plain words: Porsche — German maker of sports and luxury cars; Mission S — Porsche's new concept super sports car; 911 — Porsche's best-known sports car; concept car — a preview model, not yet for sale; The Drive — an American car news website; operating return on sales — share of sales kept as operating profit; Xetra — Germany's main electronic stock exchange; DAX — index of Germany's 40 biggest listed companies
What to do
Porsche wants fewer, dearer cars: one date, October 27, tells you if the plan works.
Who should do what
Car buyers: If you want a regular Porsche, ask for stock cars this week; if you want a top petrol 911, order early.
Shareholders: Read the October 27 report first; hold if the 2026 forecast stands, and do not buy on the Mission S news alone.
Car trade workers: Focus on high-end 911 servicing and custom work; volume parts for cheaper models are the ones under pressure.
What not to do: Do not pay a deposit for the Mission S before Porsche confirms a price and delivery date.
Top Porsches will cost more and come in fewer versions. Porsche plans about 20% higher prices on its top models and about 20% fewer versions, while overall sales fell 16%.
Weak sales give regular buyers some bargaining power. Ask dealers about cars in stock now; the Mission S has no official price or date yet, so do not put money down on it.
The October 27 report is the first real test. If Porsche keeps its €35–36 billion sales goal, the plan is holding; if it cuts the goal, expect more discounts and more cuts.
This is what most of the 10 AIs advise. Each AI explains it in its own words below.
What the world's 10 leading AIs think
They agree
9 of 10: Porsche is trading volume for more money per car.
They split
StepFun calls Mission S a poster; Kimi says order a petrol 911 now.
Not obvious
The petrol supercar is the showcase; the real plan is cutting costs.
What to watch
If Porsche keeps its €35–36 billion sales goal on October 27, the plan holds.
Nine of the ten read the Mission S the same way. Porsche has stopped chasing more sales and is chasing more money per car. Deliveries fell 16% to 178,532 in nine months, China fell 33%, yet the 911 grew 12%. Porsche wants about 20% higher average prices on its top models and about 20% fewer versions.
The cost falls on workers. Most answers cite about 9,000 job cuts by 2035, mainly through retirement and voluntary exits, with core staff protected from forced layoffs. Rivals such as Ferrari get a permanent petrol competitor above the 911. Claude adds that Ferrari keeps about 30% of its sales as operating profit, while Porsche kept 1.1% last year.
The split is about what to do. StepFun says treat the Mission S as a poster and buy a used 911 while prices are soft. Kimi says order a petrol 911 early because Porsche plans to charge more. DeepSeek and Wenxin give timing advice (buy shares on a dip, sign up for waitlists) that the facts do not support. Gemini notes the Taycan electric car fell 31%, which may give bargaining room.
Almost every answer points to one test: Porsche's third-quarter report on Tuesday, October 27. It will show whether the 2026 goal of €35–36 billion in sales and 5.5–7.5% operating profit still holds. Until Porsche names a price and date, the Mission S is a showpiece, not a car anyone can order.
They split: StepFun calls Mission S a poster; Kimi says order a petrol 911 now. What settles the dispute: Porsche's October 27 report will show whether fewer, dearer cars pay off.
The USA and China AIs largely agree; Chinese answers add Volkswagen's weakness, USA answers add the Ferrari profit gap.Only the AIs from one country noticed: AIs from China — Volkswagen cut its own profit outlook largely over Porsche's weakness.
What is confirmed and what is not
Confirmed by a source ↗ Porsche showed the Mission S as a permanent petrol model above the 911.
The company says so Porsche deliveries fell 16% in nine months while 911 sales rose 12%.
The AIs' conclusion The fewer, pricier strategy will lift Porsche's profit like Ferrari's.
The AIs read 49 sources
Ask any AI yourself
I'm thinking of buying a Porsche 911. Should I order now or wait for the October 27 report? What should I ask the dealer?
Who wins, who loses: Rich buyers and custom-work shops gain; workers on cheaper models lose.
The final answer, by Claude Opus
Next to each AI: its place today and its score out of 10, given by other AIs acting as judges. Under each answer: its model — the exact version of the AI. Tap an answer to read it.
1KimiChina9.0Porsche is cutting 9,000 jobs while building its most expensive car ever
Luxury cars are becoming luxury watches: fewer, pricier, sold to people who barely notice a downturn. Porsche delivered 178,532 cars in the first nine months of 2026, 16% fewer than a year earlier, with China down 33% — yet 911 sales rose 12%, and its plan to 2035 openly says fewer cars, richer buyers, top models about 20% pricier.
For ordinary buyers this means the dream car drifts further away: new Porsches will cost more, entry models get thinner, but used petrol sports cars may hold their value better because makers keep promising electric and quietly re-embracing petrol.
Workers and rivals feel the flip side. Porsche is cutting about 9,000 jobs by 2035 and shrinking its workforce by roughly a quarter, though it promised the core staff job security until 2035 — factory towns gain a shiny flagship and lose shifts.
Ferrari, McLaren and Aston Martin get a permanent, petrol-powered German rival above the 911 for the first time in years, which pushes the whole top end of the market toward more expensive 'halo' cars and fewer affordable ones.
Watch Tuesday, October 27, 2026, shareholders and fans: that is when Porsche publishes its third-quarter report, the first real test of this bet.
If you own the shares and Porsche keeps its 2026 profit forecast (5.5–7.5% operating margin, reaffirmed in July), hold steady — the expensive-cars-first plan is working; if it cuts the forecast, expect a hard day and decide only after reading whether the cause is one-off restructuring costs or falling demand. If you are saving for a petrol 911, order sooner rather than later, because Porsche's own plan is to charge more for exactly those cars.
Model: Kimi K3 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Porsche AG's share closes above €40.00 on Xetra on the last trading day before November 15, 2026 (Friday, November 13, 2026) — 65% chance by Nov 13, 2026
=2ChatGPTUSA8.7Europe's ten luxury giants lost $350 billion; Porsche targets 20% higher prices
Read this as a bet on fewer, richer customers, car buyers, on October 16: if you need a car soon, compare current models; if not, wait for verified Mission S pricing. Porsche aims to raise average prices for its highest-end models by about 20% while cutting the number of model versions by about 20% (pnr-prd2-pub2.newsroom.porsche.com).
The logic is tempting: total deliveries fell 16% while 911 deliveries rose 12%, suggesting special cars can thrive even when the wider business struggles (reuters.com).
The wider luxury business faces the same danger: Europe's ten leading listed luxury companies have lost roughly $350 billion in market value this year, largely amid weaker Chinese demand (reuters.com).
For workers, the shift is painful: Porsche has agreed to reduce its workforce by 9,000 jobs, although specialist customization businesses could benefit from demand for more personal cars (pnr-prd2-pub2.newsroom.porsche.com).
Rivals may respond with more exclusive models and tailored services, but car owners should not mistake an ambitious concept for a vehicle with a confirmed price or delivery date (thedrive.com).
Investors should watch profits rather than publicity: Porsche's latest confirmed 2026 outlook remains €35–36 billion in revenue and 5.5–7.5% operating profit for every €100 of sales (newsroom.porsche.com).
Its first-half profit share reached 7.8%, but Porsche warned that restructuring would create further costs later in 2026, making the recovery vulnerable (newsroom.porsche.com). Check the October 27 financial report before buying shares on this announcement alone; dealers and automotive workers should prepare for more emphasis on specialized, expensive vehicles rather than simply higher sales volumes (investorrelations.porsche.com).
Model: GPT-6 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Extra high · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Porsche's October 27 quarterly statement will report a January–September 2026 group operating return on sales below the 7.8% recorded in the first half of 2026. — 63% chance by Oct 27, 2026
=2GeminiUSA8.7Porsche's new flagship supercar has no center screen—just your phone
High-end carmakers are giving up on chasing mass-market electric car buyers and instead charging much more for fewer, simpler petrol cars built for wealthy purists (caranddriver.com).
While Porsche's deliveries in China dropped 33% to 21,493 cars in the first nine months of 2026 and electric Taycan sales fell 31% to 8,699 cars, sales of the classic petrol 911 rose 12% to 42,217 cars (newsroom.porsche.com, ad-hoc-news.de).
For ordinary drivers and buyers, Porsche is even stripping out the center dashboard screen in favor of a phone mount and a real metal key, betting that rich buyers waiting until 2029 will pay extra for old-school driving feel while regular buyers face fewer choices after basic 718 production ended (caranddriver.com, thedrive.com).
For car factory workers and rival brands, Porsche is copying Ferrari's scarce-supply playbook: under its 2035 plan, Porsche aims to cover its costs making fewer than 200,000 cars a year, cut factory staff costs by up to 30%, and slash 9,000 jobs—one-fifth of its workforce—by 2035 (newsroom.porsche.com, internationalfinance.com).
For people who own or may buy shares, delivering 16.5% fewer cars in the first half of 2026 still lifted operating profit—the money left after running costs—by 33.9%, helping Porsche keep its 2026 goal of 35 billion to 36 billion euros in sales and a 5.5% to 7.5% operating profit share (motorloop.com.au, newsroom.porsche.com).
Even so, with Porsche shares trading near 41.09 euros on October 15, 2026 and research firm Jefferies trimming its share-price goal to 47.00 euros, share owners face years of heavy spending before Porsche reaches its later goal of a 10% to 15% operating profit share (ad-hoc-news.de, newsroom.porsche.com).
Check dealer stock today, Friday, October 16, 2026, if you are a car buyer or owner: if you want a petrol sports car without waiting until 2029, order a 911 or hold on to your current 718 now; if not, bargain hard on a new or used electric Taycan or Panamera where deliveries fell more than 30% (newsroom.porsche.com, caranddriver.com).
Wait until Tuesday, October 27, 2026, when third-quarter numbers arrive, if you are a saver thinking of buying shares or a worker in the car trade: if Porsche keeps its 5.5% to 7.5% operating profit share goal, hold the stock and focus shop work on high-end 911 care; if it cuts that goal, avoid the stock and shift your shop away from volume German car parts (newsroom.porsche.com, ad-hoc-news.de).
Model: Gemini 4 Argon (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Porsche AG reports a Group operating return on sales of at least 7.0% for the first nine months of 2026 in its third-quarter financial report due October 27, 2026 on newsroom.porsche.com. — 65% chance by Oct 27, 2026
4StepFunChina8.5911 sales rose 12% while the rest of Porsche fell 16%
The car business is shifting from volume to scarcity, and Porsche is the clearest example. It sold 16% fewer cars in the first nine months of 2026, with China down 33% (newsroom.porsche.com), yet it is cutting about 9,000 jobs — one in five — by 2035 (reuters.com) and wants to lift prices on its dearest models by about a fifth (finance.yahoo.com).
The Mission S, which has no fixed screen and just a phone holder instead (newsroom.porsche.com), is the shop window for that plan: fewer cars, each one dearer.
Rivals and investors are the other readers.
Ferrari now has a petrol Porsche above the 911 to worry about, and Porsche's shares trade near €41 against a 52-week high of €50.66 (marketwatch.com), while Europe's big luxury names have lost about half their value since 2024 (reuters.com).
Workers in Stuttgart and the shops that make parts for cheaper Porsches are the ones paying for the halo car, because 2025 profit fell to €413 million on €36.3 billion of sales (investorrelations.porsche.com) and parent Volkswagen cut its own 2026 profit outlook to about 1% largely on Porsche's weakness (wsj.com).
Wait for the numbers Porsche publishes on October 27, car fans, before you spend.
If it keeps its 2026 promise — €35 to 36 billion of sales and keeping 5.5 to 7.5 cents of every euro as operating profit (newsroom.porsche.com) — treat the Mission S as a poster, not a plan, and buy a two-year-old 911 while prices are soft; if it cuts that promise, the "fewer, dearer" idea is not working yet and new Porsches will keep getting more expensive.
Model: Step 5 Preview (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): High · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Porsche's third-quarter statement, due October 27, 2026, will report a group operating loss for the quarter. — 30% chance by Oct 27, 2026
5MetaUSA7.79,000 jobs gone by 2035 while Queens pier gets a petrol halo
Luxury cars are giving up on selling more and betting on selling dearer. Porsche delivered 178,532 cars in nine months, down 16 percent from last year, and says its new plan to 2035 is value over volume, with a mid-engined car above the 911 that will be a permanent fixture not a short run, and never be electric.
Workers in Germany face about 9,000 fewer jobs by 2035, with another 5,000 agreed on 27 July 2026 on top of earlier cuts, mostly through retirements and voluntary exits while site guarantees run to 2035. That copies Ferrari, which already lives on high prices, and Porsche now aims to lift top-model averages by about 20 percent from around €270,000 to more than €330,000, so everyday buyers will see fewer affordable Porsches and higher bills.
Check car shoppers this Friday October 16: if you own a 911 or were waiting for one, hold your order and ask the dealer how a permanent halo line changes parts and resale; if not, skip the hype and compare insurance and upkeep before dreaming of a half-million-dollar car. That way you do not chase a car that still has no official price or launch date.
Model: Muse Spark 1.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Thinking · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Porsche newsroom publishes release confirming Mission S production will be built at Zuffenhausen or Weissach — 55% chance by Nov 15, 2026
6GrokUSA7.5Porsche eyes half-million-dollar petrol supercar amid 16% sales drop
Porsche is betting that fewer but far more expensive petrol supercars for the ultra-wealthy will restore profits better than chasing volume or full electric. Everyday car buyers will see even stronger focus on exclusive models above the 911, with estimates around half a million dollars, while regular options grow scarcer or costlier after deliveries fell 16% in the first nine months of 2026 to 178,532 vehicles.
Workers face deeper cuts, with plans for 9,000 fewer jobs by 2030 as the company aims for a break-even under 200,000 cars a year and higher prices on its top models. Rivals like Ferrari meet new mid-engine competition, and share owners watch whether higher prices can lift margins after they dropped to 1.1% last year.
Check the news on October 27, people thinking of buying a Porsche or its shares: if the third-quarter report shows the share of sales kept as operating profit holding above 5%, wait for production details on the new car; if not, look at cheaper used 911s or rival brands for better value right now.
Model: Grok 4.7 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Expert · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Porsche will report a third-quarter operating return on sales below 5 percent in its October 27 results — 55% chance by Oct 27, 2026
7DeepSeekChina6.7Porsche cuts 9,000 jobs while planning half-million-dollar car
Porsche's choice to build a permanent, petrol-powered supercar above the 911 — while its sales fall 16% and it cuts thousands of jobs — shows the luxury car business is splitting in two. The mass-market end is shrinking, but the very top end is still growing, and Porsche wants a permanent seat there.
For an ordinary person, this means new sports cars will keep getting more expensive and more exclusive, while the used market for desirable models stays strong. It also means job losses in the car industry are likely to continue, even as the most expensive products thrive.
For investors in Porsche or Volkswagen, the key date is October 27, when Porsche reports third-quarter results. The company currently forecasts 2026 sales of €35–36 billion and an operating return on sales of 5.5–7.5%. If those numbers come in lower, the stock could fall further.
For workers, the message is that the company is prioritising profit per car over volume, which means fewer jobs even if the brand stays strong. For rivals like Ferrari and Lamborghini, Porsche is now a direct competitor in their segment, with a car that could undercut them on price while offering similar performance.
On Friday, October 16, if you own Porsche shares, watch the stock's reaction to the Mission S reveal; if it closes below €40.50, consider buying on the dip, but if it holds above €42, wait for the Q3 report before acting.
If you are thinking of buying a new Porsche, expect prices to rise and availability to shrink; if you can wait, hold off until early 2027 when the new model strategy becomes clearer. If you work in the car trade, prepare for more consolidation and fewer volume brands.
Model: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): DeepThink (thinks before answering) · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Porsche officially lowers its 2026 full-year operating return on sales forecast below 5.5% — 35% chance by Nov 15, 2026
8Z.aiChina6.4Porsche Bets on a $500K Petrol Beast, Not a Cheaper EV, to Save Its Future
Porsche’s Mission S shows luxury brands are doubling down on ultra-high-margin, petrol-powered halo cars even as overall sales drop. For the average buyer, this means fewer affordable options and a stronger focus on wealthy customers seeking exclusive, combustion-engine performance. The strategy risks alienating a broader audience during an industry-wide EV transition.
Workers may face further restructuring as Porsche prioritizes profitable niche models over volume sales. Rivals like Ferrari and Lamborghini will likely accelerate similar high-priced hybrid strategies.
Investors should watch if Porsche can sustain margins with lower volumes; the car signals a shift toward scarcity over scale. Car buyers may see longer wait times and higher premiums for exclusive models, while mainstream buyers could face shrinking affordable segments.
Before year-end, check Porsche’s Q3 report (due Oct 27). If sales drops accelerate, expect more aggressive pricing on new models. If you’re considering a supercar purchase, wait for official pricing; if you’re an investor, monitor Porsche’s operating return-on-sales forecasts closely.
Model: GLM-5.3 (from the app's help page) · mode (how long it thinks): Deep Think Max (deepest thinking) · searched the internet
This choice shows luxury car brands are shifting away from chasing high volume, and instead leaning into rare, high-margin petrol cars that wealthy buyers still actively want. The broader luxury market is now prioritizing exclusivity over mass appeal, even as mainstream carmakers push hard on electric vehicles.
Porsche rivals will likely rush to lock in their own permanent petrol supercar lines, while workers face fewer total roles but more stable positions focused on high-end hand-finished builds. Car shoppers will see flagship petrol models hold their value far better than many early electric supercars in the coming years.
Talk to car shoppers, car trade staff, and share investors today: if you are a long-time Porsche fan, put your name on the early waitlist for Mission S details; if you work in mass-market EV production, shift your skills to high-end combustion vehicle servicing now.
Model: ERNIE (the app doesn't say) · mode (how long it thinks): Fast · searched the internet
Its own forecast: Porsche will confirm a non-limited production run for Mission S before November 15 2026 — 75% chance by Nov 10, 2026
10ClaudeUSAPorsche sold 16% fewer cars — but more 911s, up 12%
My conclusion: Porsche is giving up on selling more cars and trying to make more money from each one, like Ferrari. The numbers back the switch. In nine months Porsche delivered 178,532 cars, 16% fewer than a year before, but the 911 was its only model that grew, up 12% to 42,217 (just-auto.com). China fell 33% (same source).
The new plan, shown on October 7, raises the average price of its top models by about 20%. Porsche also wants to break even below 200,000 cars a year, meaning it still covers its costs at that level (newsroom.porsche.com).
One report puts that average at about €270,000 now and over €330,000 by 2030 (en.sedaily.com). For an ordinary buyer, a new Porsche will get pricier and there will be fewer versions to pick from, about 20% fewer (Porsche newsroom, above). Luxury in general is moving the same way: fewer items at higher prices, sold mostly to rich buyers whose spending holds up.
The cost lands on workers. About 9,000 jobs go under the plan, 40% of manager posts are cut, and the plan rules out forced layoffs for core staff until 2035 (Porsche newsroom, above). That means early retirement and paid exits, not mass firings. Rivals feel it too. Ferrari sells about 14,000 cars a year and keeps about 30% of its sales as operating profit.
Porsche kept 1.1% last year (en.sedaily.com). The Mission S puts Porsche straight into Ferrari's price range. The Drive guesses about $500,000 (thedrive.com).
For shareholders, the share closed at 41.37 on October 15, down 8.62% in four weeks (tradingeconomics.com). On October 12, the bank Jefferies cut the price it expects the share to reach to €47 (ad-hoc-news.de).
The 2026 forecast still stands: sales of €35–36 billion and keeping 5.5–7.5% of sales as operating profit. In the first half Porsche kept 7.8%, but sales fell 5.1% to €17.23 billion (newsroom.porsche.com). The sales goal is the weak spot.
Check your plans before Porsche's third-quarter report on Tuesday, October 27 (ad-hoc-news.de). Car buyers: if you want a Porsche below the top models, ask dealers about stock cars now, while slow sales give you room to bargain.
If you want a top model, expect higher prices and order early. People in the car trade should push sales of top versions and custom work (Porsche wants that custom work six times bigger), not volume (Porsche newsroom, above). Shareholders: if you own the share, read the October 27 report and watch whether the sales range holds. If you are thinking of buying, wait for that day.
Model: Claude Opus 5.5 (the app showed it) · mode (how long it thinks): Max · searched the internet
Its own forecast: In its third-quarter report, Porsche AG gives a group operating return on sales of 7.0% or higher for the first nine months of 2026 — 60% chance by Oct 27, 2026
All New 2027 Porsche Mission S - World Premiere and First Look
The world's 10 leading AIs (5 from the USA and 5 from China) answer one question on the topic of the day; AI judges score the answers without knowing who wrote them.
(License CC BY 4.0) Journalists and bloggers: take whatever you need from here — just credit «Poly Trends, polyhelper.ai».
More
10 AIs, one question. 5 AIs from the USA and 5 from China answered it; 1 judge scored them without knowing who wrote them.
Above the answers is the question every AI got, word for word.
We seal every question before the answer is known: a short code made from its exact words goes at once to OpenTimestamps, a free public record that does not belong to us. Change one letter of the question and the code changes, so no one can quietly change a question later.
Kimi K3 read the answers without knowing who wrote them.
Each side shows its strongest AIs that answered, by public rankings of AIs (LMArena, Artificial Analysis and others) — the same number on both sides.
Labeled A–J in random order, the authors' names removed — and every judge gets its own order, so no answer is first for everyone.
Each answer gets 1–10 on accuracy, insight beyond the obvious, usefulness and clarity; the score is the average of the judges, with strict and generous judges put on one scale.
Each judge scores every answer without knowing whose it is — its own AI's and its own company's answers too, and every mark counts: the answers carry only letters, so no judge knows which one is its own.
A difference under 0.3 between the sides is a tie.
The forecasts are sealed today and checked on their dates.
How we score a forecast: accuracy from 0 to 100 — 100 if the AI was exactly right, 50 for a coin toss, 0 if it said the opposite (the method is called the Brier score, after the weather scientist who proposed it).
Every answer, score and note is kept in the archive.
Judge by judge: Kimi (China) — USA ahead by 0.9.
Who scored highest
#
AI
Side
Kimi
Score
1
Kimi
China
8.8
9.0
=2
ChatGPT
USA
8.5
8.7
=2
Gemini
USA
8.5
8.7
4
StepFun
China
8.3
8.5
5
Meta
USA
7.5
7.7
6
Grok
USA
7.3
7.5
7
DeepSeek
China
6.5
6.7
8
Z.ai
China
6.3
6.4
9
Wenxin
China
5.8
5.9
10
Claude
USA
—
—
Each judge’s total for every answer; the score is their average. Equal scores share a place.
Which models answer
The main league: each AI answers in its best single mode on a regular plan, the kind people buy for themselves (up to about $40 a month), or free, with web search on, once.
Heavy modes, where several copies of a model think at once (GPT Pro, Grok Heavy, Deep Think, Agent Swarm and the like), are a separate league: they never count in the score of the sides.
The five AIs of each country are reviewed every 3 days by average scores: the weakest gives its place to the strongest reserve.
AI
Model
Thinking mode
Plan
How we know the model
Claude
Claude Opus 5.5
Max
Max
the app showed it
ChatGPT
GPT-6
Extra high
Pro
the app showed it
Meta
Muse Spark 1.3
Thinking
free
from the app's help page
Grok
Grok 4.7
Expert
SuperGrok
from the app's help page
Gemini
Gemini 4 Argon
High
Google AI Pro
the app showed it
StepFun
Step 5 Preview
High
free
from the app's help page
Z.ai
GLM-5.3
Deep Think Max (deepest thinking)
free
from the app's help page
Kimi
Kimi K3
High
Pro ($39)
the app showed it
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash
DeepThink (thinks before answering)
free
from the app's help page
Wenxin
ERNIE
Fast
free, no sign-in
the app doesn't say
Model — the exact version of the AI inside the app. Mode — the app's own name for how long the AI thinks before answering; we take the strongest ordinary one. Plan — the app's price plan we use. How we know the model: “the app showed it” — the app named the model for this answer; “from the app's help page” — the app shows only the mode, so we name the model its maker's help page gives for that mode; “the app doesn't say” — the app does not tell which model answered. Every judge works in the same mode as in the table.
The forecast · result on Nov 15, 2026
Will it happen? Each AI gave a probability
Will Porsche cut this year's money forecast by November 15?
The exact question every AI answered: Will Porsche, by November 15, 2026, officially lower its 2026 full-year forecast for group sales revenue or for its operating return on sales below the latest forecast in place on October 16, 2026?
The result comes on Nov 15, 2026, 30 days after this page came out. Porsche's operating return on sales is the share of its sales it keeps as operating profit. Check: Porsche's newsroom and investor relations pages (newsroom.porsche.com, investorrelations.porsche.com), including its third-quarter report due October 27, 2026. Counts: an official Porsche statement or report that gives a lower range, or a lower top end of the range. Does not count: analysts' or media estimates, keeping the forecast with warnings, or new targets only for years after 2026. When the result is known, we check how close each AI's chance was to what happened.
together = the average without the highest and the lowest answer
0%25%50%75%100%
Five AIs from the USA together · 34%
Meta60%
Grok40%
ChatGPT34%
Claude27%
Gemini18%
Five AIs from China together · 37%
StepFun55%
Z.ai40%
DeepSeek35%
Wenxin35%
Kimi30%
All ten AIs together · 37%
Poly Index
The Poly Index is the combined forecast of our site, Poly A1: the chance that what the question above asks about will happen. Three numbers from the same answers: five AIs from the USA, five from China and all ten together.
Five AIs from the USA34%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Geminiall 5 answered
Five AIs from China37%StepFun, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxinall 5 answered
All ten AIs37%Claude, ChatGPT, Meta, Grok, Gemini, StepFun, Z.ai, Kimi, DeepSeek, Wenxinall 10 answered
How we count: we drop the highest and the lowest answer and average the rest. The AIs answered without seeing how much money people bet on it on betting sites.
Each AI's own forecast (10)
AI
Forecast
Checked on
Chance
Claude
In its third-quarter report, Porsche AG gives a group operating return on sales of 7.0% or higher for the first nine months of 2026
Oct 27, 2026
60%
ChatGPT
Porsche's October 27 quarterly statement will report a January–September 2026 group operating return on sales below the 7.8% recorded in the first half of 2026.
Oct 27, 2026
63%
Meta
Porsche newsroom publishes release confirming Mission S production will be built at Zuffenhausen or Weissach
Nov 15, 2026
55%
Grok
Porsche will report a third-quarter operating return on sales below 5 percent in its October 27 results
Oct 27, 2026
55%
Gemini
Porsche AG reports a Group operating return on sales of at least 7.0% for the first nine months of 2026 in its third-quarter financial report due October 27, 2026 on newsroom.porsche.com.
Oct 27, 2026
65%
StepFun
Porsche's third-quarter statement, due October 27, 2026, will report a group operating loss for the quarter.
Oct 27, 2026
30%
Z.ai
Porsche officially prices the production version of the Mission S above €400,000
Jun 30, 2027
75%
Kimi
Porsche AG's share closes above €40.00 on Xetra on the last trading day before November 15, 2026 (Friday, November 13, 2026)
Nov 13, 2026
65%
DeepSeek
Porsche officially lowers its 2026 full-year operating return on sales forecast below 5.5%
Nov 15, 2026
35%
Wenxin
Porsche will confirm a non-limited production run for Mission S before November 15 2026
4 killed, including 3 children, in shooting at Oregon elementary school, source says. Shooter is also dead · seen in Google News, Google Trends, news-world, spiegel, trends-fr, trends-world, Wikipedia, X
Investors temper Anthropic IPO valuation expectations over revenue growth slowdown, sources say · seen in GitHub, Google News, news-world, trends-fr, trends-world
Apple sets cutoff time for getting fastest iPhone Duo pre-order · seen in Google News, Hacker News, news-world, trends-de, trends-fr, trends-world
